Estimating the probability that FTX Future Fund grant money gets clawed back
post by spencerg · 2022-11-14T03:33:05.507Z · LW · GW · 6 comments6 comments
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comment by shminux · 2022-11-14T04:19:36.052Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Is there a prediction about all clawbacks being covered by someone else, to mitigate the damage? My guess would be close to 90%.
Replies from: DarkSym↑ comment by Shoshannah Tekofsky (DarkSym) · 2022-11-14T05:45:13.968Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
As a grantee, I'd be very interested in hearing what informs your estimate, if you feel comfortable sharing.
Replies from: shminux↑ comment by shminux · 2022-11-14T06:14:26.991Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I don't have any special insights. But I would assume that the total amount of undistributed grants is not huge, and there are EA-adjacent funding orgs that have funds available. Using previously selected now-unfunded grantees saves them the work of identifying promising projects. Plus it limits the fallout from the current FTX debacle. Win/win.
Replies from: DarkSym↑ comment by Shoshannah Tekofsky (DarkSym) · 2022-11-14T08:36:31.434Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Clawbacks refer to grants that have already been distributed but would need to be returned. You seem to be thinking of grants that haven't been distributed yet. I hope both get resolved but they would require different solutions. The post above is only about clawbacks though.
Replies from: shminux