Metaculus Launches Chinese AI Chips Tournament, Supporting Institute for AI Policy and Strategy Research

post by ChristianWilliams · 2023-12-06T11:26:15.790Z · LW · GW · 1 comments

This is a link post for https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/chinese-ai-chips/?has_group=false&project=2784&order_by=-activity

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comment by trevor (TrevorWiesinger) · 2023-12-06T16:38:02.017Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

These collabs are a great way to raise the profile of prediction markets. However, they are still at risk of displaying unimpressive results if the wheat-to-chaff ratio isn't sufficiently high (prediction markets are vastly superior at yielding solid results with unusually small amounts of talent, but there is still a sufficiently low wheat-to-chaff ratio that causes unimpressive results).

If you are a great forecaster or know people who are, please let them know about this event!