Play My Futarchy/Prediction Market Mafia Game

post by Arjun Panickssery (arjun-panickssery) · 2023-04-04T16:12:30.730Z · LW · GW · 2 comments

This is a link post for https://arjunpanickssery.substack.com/p/play-my-futarchyprediction-market

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In the social deduction game Mafia (broadly the same game as Werewolf, Town of Salem, etc) the minority mafiosi—who know each other's identities—play against the majority villagers in alternating day phases, where the players select someone to kill, and night phases, where the mafia picks someone to kill while select players perform secretly assigned roles like investigating others or protecting them from attack.

I'm hosting a game of mafia where instead of voting, there’s a live prediction market where people can buy and sell shares in each player. The highest-priced player at the end of each day phase will be executed and their role and faction made public, at which point their shares will pay out $100 if they’re revealed to be in the mafia.

I hosted a game like this before with 40 players over the pandemic but the execution was poor—only a quarter of them really understood how the market worked and what the prices meant, the bot running the market crashed at one point, and the game used normal voting (gaining more money allowed you to buy bonus items at daily auctions instead).

The game will take place over about a week. Each day/night cycle in the game will last about one calendar day, so you don’t need to pay constant attention to the chatter but can just check in, post your thoughts, and bet on the market when you’re free. I might stretch out the phases depending on what time zones need to be accommodated.

I’m looking for 24 players. You can also join the Discord server just to spectate: https://discord.gg/D5DQVs3wP4

More rules explanation: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1DfAzHfAprjK9sjSHMvRNjWz866NIX41YVp3ktBrqVIU/edit

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