It's not necessarily structural inefficiency at PredictIt specifically that is causing most of this, but to a large extent bettors pricing in the odds of Trump still winning the election. Apparently Betfair's odd of Trump winning are still around 10% - link I found from searching for articles on betting odds from the last day, but I wasn't able to find the odds at Betfair itself.

Where is this money coming from? Who is taking the other side of these bets?

A few questions:

When are these likely to pay out? Will I have to wait until January 20 or even later?

For the Secretary of State and Attorney General, what happens if Biden becomes president but the senate refuses to confirm his nominees?

Finally, why does PredictIt ask for so much personal information, and can I get away with entering fake info?

The Hunter Biden federal charges market is also bonkers. If there was enough evidence to charge, they'd have done so before the election.

I'm not particularly familiar with predictit, but someone please explain where I am going wrong here. Lets say I buy 100 of these contracts for $85, and I win as seems virtually guaranteed. Then I receive $100. From this $100, predictit takes 10% of the winnings, or $1.50. I then withdraw the remaining $98.50, of which predictit takes another 5% or $4.93, leaving me with $93.57. I then owe taxes on the $100 of income, which even if I am in the lowest tax bracket is $10. That leaves me with only $83.57 when all is said and done, which is less than the $85 I invested. Haven't I just lost money?

I started the process to accept this free money, but once I read enough of the fine print I bailed. Basically, if PredictIt is taking a 5% cut of my withdrawals, then I'm going to lose money if it so happens that I can't get enough of this contract. It feels more like even-money gambling, where I lose if the PredictIt market happens to lose liquidity by the time they verify me, and I win if I actually fill out all the forms in time. If there were more money at stake, maybe I'd work a bit harder to jump through all the hoops, but it just isn't worth it to riskily earn $20.

I'm a little skeptical about this kind of spending time. But sometimes it works guys just go tonybet casino and play some games, you won't regret it! The customer support team is one of the best I've seen so far and they are always ready to help. The site has a lot of games to choose from - from slots and table games to live dealer casino games and progressive jackpots. Plus, there are some great bonuses available too!

I agreed at the time with the sentiments of this and similar discussions of free money available through prediction markets, although I didn't overcome the inertia enough to make any trades. However, yesterday's events have made me question how well I was calibrated. Have others been feeling similarly?