Testing and contact tracing impact assessment model?

post by JustinShovelain · 2020-04-09T17:42:13.236Z · LW · GW · 3 comments

This is a question post.

What is a good model for assessing the effect of testing and contact tracing on R0?

I'm imagining it would have parameters perhaps like:


Ideally it would be able to answer questions like: How much does it decrease R0 if you test 90% of people every 10 days with a false negative rate of 15%, an isolation compliance rate of 85%, a contact tracing web that is 50% dense, and a proactive quarantine over the contact tracing web that is two contacts deep?

Answers

3 comments

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comment by romeostevensit · 2020-04-10T03:11:30.650Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I'd honestly use twitter and facebook to ask around for epidemiologists if this has decision leverage for donors. There are people working on probabilistic agent models (instead of simplistic quant SEIR like models) but they mostly don't post on the public internet directly about the work.

comment by romeostevensit · 2020-04-13T02:54:17.359Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS__P0N5JVs&app=desktop

comment by waveman · 2020-06-04T00:40:02.470Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Wish I'd watched this before. Very good insight into the perils of making models.