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Twisted: The Untold Story of a Royal Vizier isn't really rational but is rat-adjacent and funny about it. Available to watch on youtube though the video quality isn't fantastic.
what technologies like bbq are we missing?
It's also my litmus test for community, if a group can't succeed at casual BBQs at all or has them but they have to be a big production I am more wary.
Many people have no context in their life where they can get feedback on socially undesirable ideas from thoughtful people so that they can potentially update them. E.g. you hear socially undesirable thing online that you suspect has some truth to it, you can't have any reasonable discussion about which aspects might be true, which might be false, and even amongst the more true parts how to navigate having that belief or what would be a wholesome framework to use to work with it, bc no feedback.
I'll give an egregious example. At one time, iodizing salt in developing countries was opposed by some NGOs on the grounds that the argument that it raised IQ was some sort of fake racist thing. A person in that environment might have wanted to be able to discuss things in a safer space than whatever environment produced that insanity.
Thanks for writing this, I indeed felt that the arguments were significantly easier to follow than previous efforts.
My personal experience was that superintelligence made it harder to think clearly about AI by making lots of distinctions and few claims.
Thank you!
Ironically, I do not know who to attribute to the notion that 'all problems are credit assignation problems.'
I've read leaked emails from people in similar situations before that made a couple things apparent:
- Power talk happens on the phone for paper trail reasons
- There is no meeting where an actual rational discussion of considerations and theories of change happens, everything really is people flying by the seat of their pants even at highest level. Talk of ethics usually just gets you excluded from the power talk.
I concluded this from the lack of any such talk in meeting minutes that are recorded, and the lack of any reference to such considerations in 'previous conversations' or requests to set up such meetings.
This elides the original argument by assuming the conclusion: that countermanding efforts remain cheap relative to the innovations. But the whole point is that significant shifts in costs associated with defense of a certain level can change behaviors and which plans and supply chains are economically defensible a lot.
Relatedly: people often discount improvements with large startup costs even if those costs are one time cost for an ongoing benefit. One of the worst is when it's something one is definitely going to do eventually, so delaying paying the startup cost is simply reducing the amount of time for diffuse benefits. Exercise and learning to cook are like this.
One operationalization is splitting out positive and negative predictions/models in all three questions (or cost benefit etc).
when you're stuck at the bottom of an attractor a hard kick to somewhere else can be good enough even with unknown side effects.
I have attempted to communicate to ultra-high-net-worth individuals, seemingly to little success so far, that given the reality of limited personal bandwidth, with over 99% of their influence and decision-making typically mediated through others, it’s essential to refine the ability to identify trustworthy advisors in each domain. Expert judgment is an active field of research with valuable, actionable insights.
It's worth noting that many therapists break therapeutic alliance for ideological or liability reasons and this is one of the reasons that self therapy, peer therapy, llms, and workbooks can sometimes be better.
Agree with the approach with the caveat that some people in group 2 are naive cooperators and therefore second order defectors since they are suckers for group 1. Eg the person who will tell the truth to the Nazis out of mistaken theories of ethics or just behavioral conditioning.
I was reading this earlier and it dovetails very well with this post. Framing defending yourself against hostile people and processes as primarily selfish itself serves the hostile.
'In essence, it is viewed as a form of adhamma (not-Dhamma) or misconduct to teach someone who is uninterested or unreceptive, since doing so does not respect the individual's disposition and may lead to misunderstanding or conflict rather than enlightenment.' (commentary on Akkosa Sutta (SN 7.2))
Yes, though this often involves some self deception about your true utility function. I suspect that some ace people did this to themselves to avoid zero sum competition they expect to painfully lose.
I can secondhand lend some affirmation to the newcomb case. A friend with DID from a childhood with a BPD mom later became a meditator and eventually rendered transparent the shell game that was being played with potentially dangerous preferences and goals to keep them out of consciousness, since the mom was extremely good at telepathy and was hostile for the standard BPD reason: other beings with other goals are inherently threatening to their extremely fragile sense of their own preferences and goals.
Another solution is illegible-ization/orthogonalization of preferences to the hostile telepath so that you don't overlap in anything they might care about or overpower you with. I think this is one of the things to think about in terms of rationalist avoidance of conflict theory.
I think this is an important topic and am glad to see substantial scholarship efforts on it.
Wrt AI relevance: I think the meme that it matters a lot who builds the self activating doomsday device has done potentially quite a bit of harm and may be a main contributor to what kills us.
Wrt people detecting these traits: I personally feel that the self domestication of humans has made us easier targets for such people, and undermined our ability to even think of doing anything about them. I don't think this is entirely random.
I propose a new term, gas bubble, to describe the spate of scams we're about to see. It's a combination of gas lighting and filter bubble.
like the calibration game but for a variety of decision problems, where the person has to assign probabilities to things at different stages based on what information is available. Afterwards they get an example brier score based on the average of what people with good prediction track records set at each phase.
I've thought about this for a long time and I think one of the big issues is lack of labelled training data in many domains. E.g. people made calibration toys and that helped a lot for that particular dimension. Ditto the tests on which studies replicated. In many cases we'd want more complex blinded data for people to practice on, and that requires, like in games, someone to set up all the non-fun backend for them.
I tried them for a while and was unimpressed. Plus some need to be loaded quite heavy, risking injury.
Reasonable
Thanks for the details! One of the findings of exercise studies is that you still get a lot of benefits not going to failure.
"Thou shalt have no other Schelling points before me" is a pretty strong attractor for (at least naive) coordination tech.
without a principled distinction between credences that are derived from deep, rigorous models of the world, and credences that come from vague speculation
Double counting issues here as well, in communities.
Thanks, I wrote it and found the process of recording my thoughts and organizing them to be helpful.
'these practices grant unmediated access to reality' sounds like a metaphysical claim. The Buddha's take on his system's relevance to metaphysics seems pretty consistently deflationary to me.
You mention 'warp' when talking about cross ontology mapping which seems like your best summary of a complicated intuition. I'd be curious to hear more (I recognize this might not be practical). My own intuition surfaced 'introducing degrees of freedom' a la indeterminacy of translation.
Found a great example of something needing improvement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Models_of_scientific_inquiry
Okay this is a really good point about pedagogy. We can increase the influence of useful concepts simply by learning good pedagogical writing principles and applying them to Wikipedia.
I eat quick oats by just dumping cold milk on them.
Related: millet seems nutritionally superior to rice and is cooked the same way and had similar texture. Rice and lentils are very popular, but millet and lentils are also widely eaten in some areas and appears much better. Chatgpt suggests that millet, lentils, quinoa, peas, and carrots would be a nutritional powerhouse, covering each other's weaknesses. Might be some tricky bits with different cook times.
I'm saying it's difficult to distinguish causation
And not mutually exclusive with convergence due to exploiting the same flaws.
I think it's on me, you lead with a clear thesis statement.
oops, I did not in fact parse the qualifier 'for the purposes of calculating inflation.'
While we're on the topic of skincare, skin can be very individual in how it reacts to things. I have always had crazily fussy skin and the thing that finally helped a lot after two decades of trying different things was snail mucin. Worth a shot if you've never heard of it and have issues. Some people are allergic to it so best to try a drop on your wrist or whatever.
Most people conflate cash flow and expected net worth at future time t. Implicit rents are useful for measuring the actual delta.
Donation matching is for taxes more so than effectiveness. Nonprofits literally can not legally accept more than a certain proportion of money from single source donors.
anthocyanins, omega-3s, nitric acid release, but also it's not fully understood afaik.
I take gromwell root tea and turkey rhubarb when feeling ill on the hypothesis that they more weakly inhibit the same metabolic steps that paxlovid does. Most healthcare providers will not prescribe paxlovid even if you have symptoms and even knowing that earlier intervention is much more effective. I also decided that wearing a mask on public transport is an obvious win regardless of which illnesses are currently going around. Pretty easy since I don't use it much. I suspect that the air quality in airplanes is actually quite bad, despite assurances, so that counts as public transport.
Similar to veganism, I expect him to live slightly longer and with a better health span, but with high variance. Even more so than vegans, he is exposing himself to black swan interactions by stacking up so many individual unusual interventions (exogenous hormones and peptides, lack of UV etc).
cowardice
liability aversion
In maneuver warfare, you get convinced to waste your resources fighting the wrong battles. Journalists are not reliable sources of anything, and fighting in the faction wars around that is probably not pulling the rope sideways.
I believe that one of the effects of the current schooling system is training people to shy away from cruxyness, which makes you somewhat less of a liability for employment.
One of the hypotheses is that hoarding calories is supposed to be a fall preparing for winter thing and something about the modern diet is putting us in that state all the time rather than for three months out of the year. Eating a bunch of root vegetables seems to help. Might be gut microbiome related (starches) and/or hormone related or something else.
Wrt to the calorie deficit really sucking, I found, per the potato diet, that eating potatoes to satiety (wound up being about 25% of calories overall average) removed most of the hard part of the calorie deficit. I still had to pay attention, but I didn't have to try to go to sleep hungry.
It was notable that, in practice, the diet wound up being both low added sugar and low added fat. This has a calorie effect of course, but also some think that these processed carbs and fats are doing some sort of metabolic shenanigans, perhaps being treated by the body structurally as damaged etc.