↑ comment by Pattern ·
2020-03-11T21:55:23.311Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Person A says "Google's stock is going to go down - the world is flat, and when people realize this, the Global Positioning System (GPS) will seem less valuable.
Person B says "you're very right A. But given the power and influence they wield so far in order to get people to have that belief, I don't see the truth coming out anytime soon - and even if it did, when people look for someone to blame they won't re-examine their beliefs and methods of adopting them that got them wrong. Instead, they will google 'who is to blame, who kept the truth from us about the shape of the earth?' A scapegoat will be chosen and how ridiculous it is won't matter...because everyone trusts google."
Buying stocks need not stem from models you consider worth considering.
What you want should be a different layer. Perhaps a prediction market that includes 'automatic traders' and prediction markets* on their performance?
(* Likely the same as the original market, though perhaps with less investment.)
In any case, the market is "black box". This rewards being right, whether your reasons for being right are wrong. Perhaps what you want is not a current (opaque) consensus about the future, but a (transparent) consensus about the past*?
*One that updates as more information becomes available might be useful.