[Link] "Where are all the successful rationalists?" 2020-10-17T19:58:33.560Z
Investment idea: basket of tech stocks weighted towards AI 2020-08-12T21:30:58.261Z
[Link] "Will He Go?" book review (Scott Aaronson) 2020-06-12T22:16:57.314Z
[Link] Watchmen trilemma 2019-12-29T01:37:55.822Z
[Link] High-performance government (Dominic Cummings) 2019-12-13T23:53:27.855Z
[Link] Is the Orthogonality Thesis Defensible? (Qualia Computing) 2019-11-13T03:59:00.955Z
(a) 2019-10-13T17:39:52.883Z
[Link] Tools for thought (Matuschak & Nielson) 2019-10-04T00:42:32.116Z
[Link] Truth-telling is aggression in zero-sum frames (Jessica Taylor) 2019-09-11T05:53:59.188Z
[Link] Book Review: Reframing Superintelligence (SSC) 2019-08-28T22:57:09.455Z
What supplements do you use? 2019-07-28T17:01:30.441Z
If physics is many-worlds, does ethics matter? 2019-07-10T15:32:56.085Z
What's state-of-the-art in AI understanding of theory of mind? 2019-07-03T23:11:34.426Z
Cash prizes for the best arguments against psychedelics being an EA cause area 2019-05-10T18:24:47.317Z
Complex value & situational awareness 2019-04-16T18:46:22.414Z
Microcosmographia excerpt 2019-03-29T18:29:14.239Z
[Link] OpenAI on why we need social scientists 2019-02-19T16:59:32.319Z
Aphorisms for meditation 2019-02-18T17:47:05.526Z
Who owns OpenAI's new language model? 2019-02-14T17:51:26.367Z
Individual profit-sharing? 2019-02-13T17:58:41.388Z
What we talk about when we talk about life satisfaction 2019-02-04T23:52:38.052Z
Is intellectual work better construed as exploration or performance? 2019-01-25T21:59:28.381Z
No standard metric for CFAR workshops? 2018-09-06T18:06:00.021Z
On memetic weapons 2018-09-01T03:25:36.489Z
Doing good while clueless 2018-02-15T16:02:27.060Z


Comment by ioannes_shade on What supplements do you use? · 2020-11-20T22:00:26.800Z · LW · GW

It looks like glucosamine may help reduce all-cause mortality (UK Biobank study), so I might start taking that as well.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Is Success the Enemy of Freedom? (Full) · 2020-11-01T16:06:31.038Z · LW · GW

It's a big topic and I don't have a great articulation for it yet. 

Some scattered points:

  • Generally higher model uncertainty than I used to have
  • Idealism now seems as plausible as materialism
  • Panpsychism seems plausible / not-crazy, and consciousness matters a lot
  • The many-worlds interpretation seems plausible. If physics is many-worlds, we may not be able to ever escape from ethical parochialism
  • Not about metaphysics, but I've been growing less confused about my motivations such that ethical considerations no longer feel as fraught. (I used to identify my ethics with my view of my self-worth such that acting ethically seemed super important)
Comment by ioannes_shade on Is Success the Enemy of Freedom? (Full) · 2020-10-29T18:26:41.990Z · LW · GW

fwiw I've noticed that my feelings about x-risk have started to loosen recently, though it's probably because some of my metaphysics are shifting

Comment by ioannes_shade on [Link] "Where are all the successful rationalists?" · 2020-10-18T17:53:27.796Z · LW · GW

Yes! I'm also reminded of Romeo's comment about rationality attracting "the walking wounded" on a similar post from a couple years back.

I think rationality is doing pretty good, all things considered, though I definitely resonate with Applied Divinity Studies' viewpoint. Tsuyoku Naritai!

Comment by ioannes_shade on The Treacherous Path to Rationality · 2020-10-14T20:18:57.501Z · LW · GW

In folksier terms, what's being discussed is rationalists' often-strange relationship to common courtesy (i.e. Lindy social dynamics).

Comment by ioannes_shade on Philosophy of Therapy · 2020-10-11T16:15:06.416Z · LW · GW

Reminds me a bit of this good thread by Qiaochu.

Comment by ioannes_shade on The Treacherous Path to Rationality · 2020-10-09T22:50:34.927Z · LW · GW

NXIVM had much recruiting success by training people on techniques that actually helped them quickly solve their present problems.

(NXIVM is a deeply problematic organization which contained a secret cult and in many ways should not be emulated.)

Comment by ioannes_shade on The rationalist community's location problem · 2020-10-09T22:27:19.110Z · LW · GW

+1 to Ann Arbor. 

As a native Ann Arborite, I can vouch for its greatness.

I've also heard hearsay about Madison, WI being good.

Comment by ioannes_shade on The rationalist community's location problem · 2020-10-09T22:13:25.844Z · LW · GW

For me to prefer a rationalist community hub, it would have to have similar kinds of support. I'm imagining a circle of parents that takes turns watching ALL the kids. Or passes toys around in an exchange circle. There is also an issue where rationalists often have very particular ideas about child rearing, and they don't all mesh. Even with people filling the child care role for each other, I think I'd strongly miss not having "elders" around. 

Makes me think of this David Brooks essay, which includes a profile of the Temescal Commons in Oakland.

Comment by ioannes_shade on The rationalist community's location problem · 2020-10-09T22:07:30.174Z · LW · GW

Agree with these points, though Seattle doesn't seem very dynamic compared to the Bay, LA, NYC, or even Salt Lake. (It seems very normie, to use a pejorative.)

Comment by ioannes_shade on The rationalist community's location problem · 2020-10-09T21:42:10.455Z · LW · GW

I actually feel like East Bay (Oakland and every place north of Oakland) is really pleasant:

  • Cost of living isn't terrible except for rent, and it's still possible to find good deals on rent, e.g. I've lived in North Oakland for 6 years and have only paid more than $1,000/month for one of those years (granted for the rest of the time I've been living in group houses or with a partner)
  • East Bay parks are amazing
  • Minimal social decay except for downtown Berkeley and parts of Oakland
  • Wonderful weather for ~10 months of the year (every season except for fire season)
  • Lots of interesting + diverse people, intellectual communities, and social life


What am I missing? 

Comment by ioannes_shade on The rationalist community's location problem · 2020-10-06T17:32:33.655Z · LW · GW

Wild Wild Country 2: Electric Boogaloo!

Comment by ioannes_shade on What a 20-year-lead in military tech might look like · 2020-09-28T23:08:35.070Z · LW · GW

Got it, thanks for clarifying

Comment by ioannes_shade on What a 20-year-lead in military tech might look like · 2020-09-27T18:01:31.987Z · LW · GW

For example, Kurzweil's 1999 predictions of what 2009 would look like were mostly wrong, but if instead you pretend they are predictions about 2019 they are almost entirely correct.

This isn't right. 

See Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results – "So, did more time allow for more perspective or more ways to go wrong? Well, Kurzweil's predictions for 2019 were considerably worse than those for 2009, with more than half strongly wrong"

Comment by ioannes_shade on Meaningful Rest · 2020-08-30T01:23:28.942Z · LW · GW


Comment by ioannes_shade on Investment idea: basket of tech stocks weighted towards AI · 2020-08-12T23:53:02.814Z · LW · GW

Yeah, I'm roughly as excited about Microsoft as I am about Facebook or Apple.

I wonder how much of OpenAI they got for their $1B...

Comment by ioannes_shade on Engaging Seriously with Short Timelines · 2020-08-11T20:07:50.912Z · LW · GW
The biggest semiconductor equipment companies (symbols BRKS, LRCX, KLAC, and AMAT) look like decent investments, but not quite cheap enough that I'm willing to buy them.

What do you think of companies like Broadcom, NXP, Marvell, and MediaTek?

(I don't quite know where these sit in the value chain in relation to the companies you quoted; I believe they're focused more on chip design and mostly don't do fabrication)

Comment by ioannes_shade on Thiel on Progress and Stagnation · 2020-07-23T22:13:13.648Z · LW · GW

A nice clip from the Thiel/Cowen interview:

Comment by ioannes_shade on (a) · 2020-07-19T19:44:22.209Z · LW · GW

Update: Brave Browser now gives an option to search for archived versions whenever it lands on a "page does not exist"

Comment by ioannes_shade on Simulacra Levels and their Interactions · 2020-06-17T21:21:00.296Z · LW · GW

Great analogy.

Do you have examples of equilibria around these dynamics in the animal world? Do you have a sense of how stable these equilibria are?

e.g. do toxic black-and-red butterflies persist after their non-toxic lookalikes arrive?

Comment by ioannes_shade on Remembering the passing of Kathy Forth. · 2020-05-27T22:17:41.153Z · LW · GW

Posting this here for cross-reference:

If I Can’t Have Me, No One Can (a)

[Content warning: a suicide note that deals heavily with sexual violence]

Comment by ioannes_shade on Negative Feedback and Simulacra · 2020-05-01T16:58:57.193Z · LW · GW

At some point I'd like to interweave the simulacra-levels framework with the discussion of motivations in this post: Altruistic action is dispassionate

They feel related.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Seemingly Popular Covid-19 Model is Obvious Nonsense · 2020-04-18T00:14:18.601Z · LW · GW

StatNews piece on the IHME model:

Comment by ioannes_shade on Why I'm Not Vegan · 2020-04-09T14:51:24.650Z · LW · GW


The adversarial collaboration talks a bit about this.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Why I'm Not Vegan · 2020-04-09T14:49:10.665Z · LW · GW
Pigs: about 100. Conditions for pigs are very bad, though I still think humans matter a lot more.

Very surprised by your ratios here.

cf. the "Is eating meat a net harm?" adversarial collaboration on Slate Star Codex. Look at the surveys they ran as a benchmark.

Comment by ioannes_shade on How strong is the evidence for hydroxychloroquine? · 2020-04-05T20:13:46.322Z · LW · GW

Yes, I pointed out some of the limitations in the original link. Should still be included in a lit review though.

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-05T17:54:54.562Z · LW · GW

Seems like a good model for estimating total infections, from my quick look:

I haven't poked its methodology.

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-05T15:54:32.159Z · LW · GW

Thanks, hadn't seen that.

Also just saw this, which makes a lot of the same points:

Comment by ioannes_shade on How strong is the evidence for hydroxychloroquine? · 2020-04-05T15:18:55.828Z · LW · GW

Gautret et al. 2020 and Chen et al. 2020 are studies of hydroxychloroquine efficacy.

I stumbled onto these during the course of my internet reading, would be great to see a proper lit review.

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-04T22:30:12.528Z · LW · GW

IHME published a dashboard with state-by-state projections of coronavirus peaks:

The accompanying FAQ is also interesting:

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-04T19:52:34.198Z · LW · GW

Which US federal agencies should receive more funding in response to coronavirus? Which should receive less?

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Fools: Announcing LessWrong 3.0 – Now in VR! · 2020-04-01T18:50:09.654Z · LW · GW
As a continuation of Karma 2.0 we are working on a feature in which your avatar size can scale with your karma, such that users with the most karma can signal their superiority even better, and truly tower over their intellectual contemporaries.


Comment by ioannes_shade on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-01T16:32:59.385Z · LW · GW

Is the Chinese coronavirus data fake?

If so, what's a good estimate of the actual number of Chinese cases & actual number of Chinese deaths?

Comment by ioannes_shade on romeostevensit's Shortform · 2020-04-01T16:30:38.667Z · LW · GW

I think that's right.

Comment by ioannes_shade on My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines · 2020-03-31T23:27:44.361Z · LW · GW


Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-31T21:15:40.805Z · LW · GW

I looked into this a bit with a friend who's an MD, and it turns out that this paper isn't very good.

Study not randomized, groups not balanced by disease severity, several treatment-group patients excluded from the data after trial started because they got worse (some went to ICU; one died).

From p. 10 of the paper:

We enrolled 36 out of 42 patients meeting the inclusion criteria in this study that had at least six days of follow-up at the time of the present analysis. A total of 26 patients received hydroxychloroquine and 16 were control patients.
Six hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were lost in follow-up during the survey because of early cessation of treatment. Reasons are as follows: three patients were transferred to intensive care unit, including one transferred on day2 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on day1, one transferred on day3 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on days1-2 and one transferred on day4 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on day1 and day3; one patient died on day3 post inclusion and was PCR-negative on day2; one patient decided to leave the hospital on day3 post-inclusion and was PCR-negative on days1-2; finally, one patient stopped the treatment on day3 post-inclusion because of nausea and was PCR-positive on days1-2-3.
The results presented here are therefore those of 36 patients (20 hydroxychloroquine-treated patients and 16 control patients). None of the control patients was lost in follow-up.
Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-31T19:34:00.584Z · LW · GW

Does hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin effectively treat COVID-19?

See Gautret et al. 2020, a small trial of this (not randomized) that found a big effect.

Comment by ioannes_shade on romeostevensit's Shortform · 2020-03-31T14:48:48.779Z · LW · GW

Economists mostly disagree with present market sentiment, which could be the basis for a trade:

Comment by ioannes_shade on romeostevensit's Shortform · 2020-03-30T00:00:05.684Z · LW · GW
... plus rising nominal prices means seeking returns is the main motivation, not avoiding risk.

Why do you think nominal prices will keep rising?

Comment by ioannes_shade on romeostevensit's Shortform · 2020-03-29T20:00:11.029Z · LW · GW

Isn't it also plausible that the impact of the virus is deflationary? (Increased demand for USD as a store of value exceeds the impact of the Fed printing money, etc)

Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-21T19:12:22.186Z · LW · GW

Will the economic impact of coronavirus be inflationary or deflationary on net? (for USD)

Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-20T00:42:43.903Z · LW · GW

Why haven't we ever created a vaccine for a coronavirus before?

Is coronavirus vaccine development more limited by need for technological innovation or economic incentive?

Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-20T00:39:51.174Z · LW · GW

For each country – what proportion of newly reported cases comes from ramping up testing, and what proportion comes from newly infected people?

Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-19T18:11:26.485Z · LW · GW

Why doesn't Japan have a huge outbreak already? (924 reported cases today, according to the Johns Hopkins tracker):

Why does India have so few cases? (160 reported cases today):

Comment by ioannes_shade on Open & Welcome Thread - February 2020 · 2020-03-02T21:18:39.659Z · LW · GW

Thank you – super helpful.

Comment by ioannes_shade on High Variance Productivity Advice · 2020-03-02T18:26:56.827Z · LW · GW


Aesthetics are everything.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Open & Welcome Thread - February 2020 · 2020-03-02T17:01:25.450Z · LW · GW

Do you know of a way to buy puts with <$1000?

I don't understand options well and would like to make some small options trades to drive my learning, but from what I see on my broker (Fidelity), all puts for something like $SPX cost several thousand at minimum.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Open & Welcome Thread - February 2020 · 2020-03-01T17:42:15.559Z · LW · GW
I find myself unsure what to do at this point. (Aside from taking some profit out) should I close out the position, and if so put the money into what?

I bought some $APT (US-based mask manufacturer) in mid-January.

Sold off most of it this week as it 8x'd. I put most of the earnings into other coronavirus-relevant names: $AIM, $INO, $COCP, $MRNA, $TRIB. Also considering $GILD but haven't bought any yet ($MRNA and $GILD aren't really corona pure-plays because they're large-ish biotech companies with multiple product lines).

I'll revisit these allocations when the market opens on Monday. I don't have a good sense of how smart this is... there's a lot of hype in this sector and I haven't carefully diligenced any of these picks, they're just names that seem to be doing something real and haven't had a crazy run-up yet.

I also pulled back a lot of my portfolio into cash.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Refactoring EMH – Thoughts following the latest market crash · 2020-03-01T04:25:28.877Z · LW · GW
I would suggest that one week -- or even a couple of months in the context of COVID-19 -- of market price behavior really tells us little about EMH.

Doesn't the EMH imply that small active investors shouldn't be able to beat the market / compete with Goldman?

Comment by ioannes_shade on Refactoring EMH – Thoughts following the latest market crash · 2020-03-01T04:23:31.560Z · LW · GW

Relatedly, from Seeing the Smoke:

The coronavirus was identified on January 7th and spread outside China by the 13th. American media ran some stories about how you should worry more about the seasonal flu. The markets didn’t budge. Rationalist Twitter started tweeting excitedly about R0 and supply chains.
Over the next two weeks, Chinese COVID cases kept climbing at 60%/day reaching 17,000 by February 2nd. Cases were confirmed in Europe and the US. The WHO declared a global emergency. The former FDA commissioner explained why a law technicality made it illegal for US hospitals to test people for coronavirus, implying that we would have no idea how many Americans have contracted the disease. Everyone mostly ignored him including all major media publications, and equity markets hit an all time high. By this point several Rationalists in Silicon Valley and elsewhere started seriously prepping for a pandemic and canceling large social gatherings.
On the 13th, Vox published a story mocking people in Silicon Valley for worrying about COVID-19. The article contained multiple factual mistakes about the virus and the opinions of public health experts.
On February 17th, Eliezer asked how markets should react to an obvious looming pandemic. Most people agreed that the markets should freak out and aren’t. Most people decided to trust the markets over their own judgment. As an avowed efficient marketeerwho hasn’t made an active stock trade in a decade, I started at that Tweet for a long time. I stared at it some more. Then I went ahead and sold 10% of the stocks I owned and started buying respirators and beans.
By the 21st, the pandemic and its concomitant shortages hit everywhere from Iran to Italy while in the US thousands of people were asked to self-quarantine. Most elected officials in the US seemed utterly unaware that anything was happening. CNN ran a front page story about the real enemies being racism and the seasonal flu.
Finally, the narrative couldn't contain the sheer volume of disconfirming evidence. The stock market tumbled 10%. The Washington Post squeezed out one more story about racism before confirming that the virus is spreading among Americans with no links to Wuhan and that’s scary. Trump decided to throw his vice president under the coronavirus bus, finally admitting that it’s a thing that the government is aware of.
And Rationalist Twitter asked: what the fuck is wrong with everyone who is not on Rationalist Twitter?