Posts

[Link] "Will He Go?" book review (Scott Aaronson) 2020-06-12T22:16:57.314Z · score: 15 (7 votes)
[Link] Watchmen trilemma 2019-12-29T01:37:55.822Z · score: 11 (4 votes)
[Link] High-performance government (Dominic Cummings) 2019-12-13T23:53:27.855Z · score: 25 (11 votes)
[Link] Is the Orthogonality Thesis Defensible? (Qualia Computing) 2019-11-13T03:59:00.955Z · score: 6 (4 votes)
(a) 2019-10-13T17:39:52.883Z · score: 39 (17 votes)
[Link] Tools for thought (Matuschak & Nielson) 2019-10-04T00:42:32.116Z · score: 21 (6 votes)
[Link] Truth-telling is aggression in zero-sum frames (Jessica Taylor) 2019-09-11T05:53:59.188Z · score: 10 (6 votes)
[Link] Book Review: Reframing Superintelligence (SSC) 2019-08-28T22:57:09.455Z · score: 47 (17 votes)
What supplements do you use? 2019-07-28T17:01:30.441Z · score: 20 (9 votes)
If physics is many-worlds, does ethics matter? 2019-07-10T15:32:56.085Z · score: 14 (9 votes)
What's state-of-the-art in AI understanding of theory of mind? 2019-07-03T23:11:34.426Z · score: 15 (7 votes)
Cash prizes for the best arguments against psychedelics being an EA cause area 2019-05-10T18:24:47.317Z · score: 21 (8 votes)
Complex value & situational awareness 2019-04-16T18:46:22.414Z · score: 8 (5 votes)
Microcosmographia excerpt 2019-03-29T18:29:14.239Z · score: 16 (4 votes)
[Link] OpenAI on why we need social scientists 2019-02-19T16:59:32.319Z · score: 16 (8 votes)
Aphorisms for meditation 2019-02-18T17:47:05.526Z · score: 8 (5 votes)
Who owns OpenAI's new language model? 2019-02-14T17:51:26.367Z · score: 18 (7 votes)
Individual profit-sharing? 2019-02-13T17:58:41.388Z · score: 11 (2 votes)
What we talk about when we talk about life satisfaction 2019-02-04T23:52:38.052Z · score: 9 (6 votes)
Is intellectual work better construed as exploration or performance? 2019-01-25T21:59:28.381Z · score: 14 (4 votes)
No standard metric for CFAR workshops? 2018-09-06T18:06:00.021Z · score: 12 (5 votes)
On memetic weapons 2018-09-01T03:25:36.489Z · score: 44 (25 votes)
Doing good while clueless 2018-02-15T16:02:27.060Z · score: 36 (9 votes)

Comments

Comment by ioannes_shade on Thiel on Progress and Stagnation · 2020-07-23T22:13:13.648Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

A nice clip from the Thiel/Cowen interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCwXRlIb8c0

Comment by ioannes_shade on (a) · 2020-07-19T19:44:22.209Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Update: Brave Browser now gives an option to search for archived versions whenever it lands on a "page does not exist"

Comment by ioannes_shade on Simulacra Levels and their Interactions · 2020-06-17T21:21:00.296Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Great analogy.

Do you have examples of equilibria around these dynamics in the animal world? Do you have a sense of how stable these equilibria are?

e.g. do toxic black-and-red butterflies persist after their non-toxic lookalikes arrive?

Comment by ioannes_shade on Remembering the passing of Kathy Forth. · 2020-05-27T22:17:41.153Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Posting this here for cross-reference:

If I Can’t Have Me, No One Can (a)

[Content warning: a suicide note that deals heavily with sexual violence]

Comment by ioannes_shade on Negative Feedback and Simulacra · 2020-05-01T16:58:57.193Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

At some point I'd like to interweave the simulacra-levels framework with the discussion of motivations in this post: Altruistic action is dispassionate

They feel related.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Seemingly Popular Covid-19 Model is Obvious Nonsense · 2020-04-18T00:14:18.601Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

StatNews piece on the IHME model: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/

Comment by ioannes_shade on Why I'm Not Vegan · 2020-04-09T14:51:24.650Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

+1

The adversarial collaboration talks a bit about this.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Why I'm Not Vegan · 2020-04-09T14:49:10.665Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · LW · GW
Pigs: about 100. Conditions for pigs are very bad, though I still think humans matter a lot more.

Very surprised by your ratios here.

cf. the "Is eating meat a net harm?" adversarial collaboration on Slate Star Codex. Look at the surveys they ran as a benchmark.

Comment by ioannes_shade on How strong is the evidence for hydroxychloroquine? · 2020-04-05T20:13:46.322Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, I pointed out some of the limitations in the original link. Should still be included in a lit review though.

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-05T17:54:54.562Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Seems like a good model for estimating total infections, from my quick look: https://observablehq.com/@danyx/estimating-sars-cov-2-infections

I haven't poked its methodology.

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-05T15:54:32.159Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks, hadn't seen that.

Also just saw this, which makes a lot of the same points: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/04/04/ihme-projections/

Comment by ioannes_shade on How strong is the evidence for hydroxychloroquine? · 2020-04-05T15:18:55.828Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Gautret et al. 2020 and Chen et al. 2020 are studies of hydroxychloroquine efficacy.

I stumbled onto these during the course of my internet reading, would be great to see a proper lit review.

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-04T22:30:12.528Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

IHME published a dashboard with state-by-state projections of coronavirus peaks: http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

The accompanying FAQ is also interesting: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-04T19:52:34.198Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Which US federal agencies should receive more funding in response to coronavirus? Which should receive less?

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Fools: Announcing LessWrong 3.0 – Now in VR! · 2020-04-01T18:50:09.654Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · LW · GW
As a continuation of Karma 2.0 we are working on a feature in which your avatar size can scale with your karma, such that users with the most karma can signal their superiority even better, and truly tower over their intellectual contemporaries.

lol

Comment by ioannes_shade on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-01T16:32:59.385Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Is the Chinese coronavirus data fake?

If so, what's a good estimate of the actual number of Chinese cases & actual number of Chinese deaths?

Comment by ioannes_shade on romeostevensit's Shortform · 2020-04-01T16:30:38.667Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I think that's right.

Comment by ioannes_shade on My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines · 2020-03-31T23:27:44.361Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Awesome.

Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-31T21:15:40.805Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I looked into this a bit with a friend who's an MD, and it turns out that this paper isn't very good.

Study not randomized, groups not balanced by disease severity, several treatment-group patients excluded from the data after trial started because they got worse (some went to ICU; one died).

From p. 10 of the paper:

We enrolled 36 out of 42 patients meeting the inclusion criteria in this study that had at least six days of follow-up at the time of the present analysis. A total of 26 patients received hydroxychloroquine and 16 were control patients.
Six hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were lost in follow-up during the survey because of early cessation of treatment. Reasons are as follows: three patients were transferred to intensive care unit, including one transferred on day2 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on day1, one transferred on day3 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on days1-2 and one transferred on day4 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on day1 and day3; one patient died on day3 post inclusion and was PCR-negative on day2; one patient decided to leave the hospital on day3 post-inclusion and was PCR-negative on days1-2; finally, one patient stopped the treatment on day3 post-inclusion because of nausea and was PCR-positive on days1-2-3.
The results presented here are therefore those of 36 patients (20 hydroxychloroquine-treated patients and 16 control patients). None of the control patients was lost in follow-up.
Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-31T19:34:00.584Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Does hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin effectively treat COVID-19?

See Gautret et al. 2020, a small trial of this (not randomized) that found a big effect.

Comment by ioannes_shade on romeostevensit's Shortform · 2020-03-31T14:48:48.779Z · score: 8 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Economists mostly disagree with present market sentiment, which could be the basis for a trade: http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-crisis/

Comment by ioannes_shade on romeostevensit's Shortform · 2020-03-30T00:00:05.684Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
... plus rising nominal prices means seeking returns is the main motivation, not avoiding risk.

Why do you think nominal prices will keep rising?

Comment by ioannes_shade on romeostevensit's Shortform · 2020-03-29T20:00:11.029Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Isn't it also plausible that the impact of the virus is deflationary? (Increased demand for USD as a store of value exceeds the impact of the Fed printing money, etc)

Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-21T19:12:22.186Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Will the economic impact of coronavirus be inflationary or deflationary on net? (for USD)

Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-20T00:42:43.903Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Why haven't we ever created a vaccine for a coronavirus before?

Is coronavirus vaccine development more limited by need for technological innovation or economic incentive?

Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-20T00:39:51.174Z · score: 6 (5 votes) · LW · GW

For each country – what proportion of newly reported cases comes from ramping up testing, and what proportion comes from newly infected people?

Comment by ioannes_shade on LessWrong Coronavirus Agenda · 2020-03-19T18:11:26.485Z · score: 11 (8 votes) · LW · GW

Why doesn't Japan have a huge outbreak already? (924 reported cases today, according to the Johns Hopkins tracker): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/a-coronavirus-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it

Why does India have so few cases? (160 reported cases today): https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/quarantine-india-covid-19-coronavirus/

Comment by ioannes_shade on Open & Welcome Thread - February 2020 · 2020-03-02T21:18:39.659Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Thank you – super helpful.

Comment by ioannes_shade on High Variance Productivity Advice · 2020-03-02T18:26:56.827Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

+1

Aesthetics are everything.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Open & Welcome Thread - February 2020 · 2020-03-02T17:01:25.450Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Do you know of a way to buy puts with <$1000?

I don't understand options well and would like to make some small options trades to drive my learning, but from what I see on my broker (Fidelity), all puts for something like $SPX cost several thousand at minimum.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Open & Welcome Thread - February 2020 · 2020-03-01T17:42:15.559Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW
I find myself unsure what to do at this point. (Aside from taking some profit out) should I close out the position, and if so put the money into what?

I bought some $APT (US-based mask manufacturer) in mid-January.

Sold off most of it this week as it 8x'd. I put most of the earnings into other coronavirus-relevant names: $AIM, $INO, $COCP, $MRNA, $TRIB. Also considering $GILD but haven't bought any yet ($MRNA and $GILD aren't really corona pure-plays because they're large-ish biotech companies with multiple product lines).

I'll revisit these allocations when the market opens on Monday. I don't have a good sense of how smart this is... there's a lot of hype in this sector and I haven't carefully diligenced any of these picks, they're just names that seem to be doing something real and haven't had a crazy run-up yet.

I also pulled back a lot of my portfolio into cash.

Comment by ioannes_shade on Refactoring EMH – Thoughts following the latest market crash · 2020-03-01T04:25:28.877Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
I would suggest that one week -- or even a couple of months in the context of COVID-19 -- of market price behavior really tells us little about EMH.

Doesn't the EMH imply that small active investors shouldn't be able to beat the market / compete with Goldman?

Comment by ioannes_shade on Refactoring EMH – Thoughts following the latest market crash · 2020-03-01T04:23:31.560Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Relatedly, from Seeing the Smoke:


The coronavirus was identified on January 7th and spread outside China by the 13th. American media ran some stories about how you should worry more about the seasonal flu. The markets didn’t budge. Rationalist Twitter started tweeting excitedly about R0 and supply chains.
Over the next two weeks, Chinese COVID cases kept climbing at 60%/day reaching 17,000 by February 2nd. Cases were confirmed in Europe and the US. The WHO declared a global emergency. The former FDA commissioner explained why a law technicality made it illegal for US hospitals to test people for coronavirus, implying that we would have no idea how many Americans have contracted the disease. Everyone mostly ignored him including all major media publications, and equity markets hit an all time high. By this point several Rationalists in Silicon Valley and elsewhere started seriously prepping for a pandemic and canceling large social gatherings.
On the 13th, Vox published a story mocking people in Silicon Valley for worrying about COVID-19. The article contained multiple factual mistakes about the virus and the opinions of public health experts.
On February 17th, Eliezer asked how markets should react to an obvious looming pandemic. Most people agreed that the markets should freak out and aren’t. Most people decided to trust the markets over their own judgment. As an avowed efficient marketeerwho hasn’t made an active stock trade in a decade, I started at that Tweet for a long time. I stared at it some more. Then I went ahead and sold 10% of the stocks I owned and started buying respirators and beans.
By the 21st, the pandemic and its concomitant shortages hit everywhere from Iran to Italy while in the US thousands of people were asked to self-quarantine. Most elected officials in the US seemed utterly unaware that anything was happening. CNN ran a front page story about the real enemies being racism and the seasonal flu.
Finally, the narrative couldn't contain the sheer volume of disconfirming evidence. The stock market tumbled 10%. The Washington Post squeezed out one more story about racism before confirming that the virus is spreading among Americans with no links to Wuhan and that’s scary. Trump decided to throw his vice president under the coronavirus bus, finally admitting that it’s a thing that the government is aware of.
And Rationalist Twitter asked: what the fuck is wrong with everyone who is not on Rationalist Twitter?
Comment by ioannes_shade on Mazes Sequence Roundup: Final Thoughts and Paths Forward · 2020-02-18T22:26:41.280Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Also feels related: The Return of Conservative Economics (a)

Comment by ioannes_shade on Mazes Sequence Roundup: Final Thoughts and Paths Forward · 2020-02-17T01:46:29.690Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Feels related: The Nuclear Family Was a Mistake (a)

Comment by ioannes_shade on Protecting Large Projects Against Mazedom · 2020-02-04T09:02:10.868Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

This series reminds me a lot of Lou Keep's essay on narcissism & modernity: 1, 2

Like two fingers pointing at the moon.

Comment by ioannes_shade on On hiding the source of knowledge · 2020-01-27T06:01:38.116Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

See also: 7 Great Examples of Scientific Discoveries Made in Dreams

(A pop-sci article... I'd love to see a more careful study of the origins of scientific discoveries.)

Comment by ioannes_shade on On hiding the source of knowledge · 2020-01-27T05:15:08.563Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

"... at the extremes of steels properties we don't have to think about it."

?

Comment by ioannes_shade on The Road to Mazedom · 2020-01-20T07:20:18.172Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW
... Simulacrum levels  continue to rise.

Ben's post is the best reference I've seen for this so far: Excerpts from a larger discussion about simulacra

Comment by ioannes_shade on What supplements do you use? · 2020-01-20T07:00:06.033Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Apparently Metformin doesn't work when used by itself: https://nintil.com/longevity

(I haven't poked the underlying studies.)

Comment by ioannes_shade on Homeostasis and “Root Causes” in Aging · 2020-01-20T06:56:06.163Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Just encountered this, also: https://nintil.com/longevity

Comment by ioannes_shade on [Link] High-performance government (Dominic Cummings) · 2020-01-02T22:17:18.848Z · score: 13 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Hot off the presses: https://dominiccummings.com/2020/01/02/two-hands-are-a-lot-were-hiring-data-scientists-project-managers-policy-experts-assorted-weirdos/ (a)

Comment by ioannes_shade on Benito's Shortform Feed · 2020-01-01T17:05:40.368Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

+1 – this game is great.

It's really good with 3-4 people giving instructions and one person in the hot seat. Great for team bonding.

Comment by ioannes_shade on What spiritual experiences have you had? · 2019-12-29T02:06:37.645Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks for this.

I don't have good descriptors for them presently, so I'll just note that I've had some spiritual experiences. They have tended to be very helpful for my everyday life. A few of them included powerful synchronicities.

Comment by ioannes_shade on 2019 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison · 2019-12-27T17:10:14.455Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

See also My current thoughts on MIRI's "highly reliable agent design" work by Daniel Dewey (Open Phil lead on technical AI grant-making).

From the "What do I think of HRAD?" section:

... This reduces my credence in HRAD being very helpful to around 10%. I think this is the decision-relevant credence.
Comment by ioannes_shade on Approval Extraction Advertised as Production · 2019-12-16T14:55:09.799Z · score: 13 (5 votes) · LW · GW

See also SSC's Against Lie Inflation

Comment by ioannes_shade on When would an agent do something different as a result of believing the many worlds theory? · 2019-12-16T01:25:50.758Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

See also: If physics is many-worlds, does ethics matter?

Comment by ioannes_shade on [Link] High-performance government (Dominic Cummings) · 2019-12-14T18:44:42.618Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Recent Steve Hsu post on Cummings (a).

Comment by ioannes_shade on [Link] High-performance government (Dominic Cummings) · 2019-12-14T01:19:55.761Z · score: 25 (11 votes) · LW · GW

Reflecting on this more, I'm realizing that the most important strategist of the current UK government is a straight-up rationalist (e.g. his post on AGI safety (a)).

Wild.

Comment by ioannes_shade on jacobjacob's Shortform Feed · 2019-12-12T15:53:25.922Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Rationality gym (of a certain flavor): https://www.monasticacademy.com