Posts

[Letter] Advice for High School 2021-04-20T04:09:16.606Z
Anger 2021-04-18T16:14:08.309Z
Place-Based Programming - Part 2 - Functions 2021-04-16T00:25:27.515Z
Hell is wasted on the evil 2021-04-15T08:52:01.466Z
Training the YouTube Algorithm 2021-04-15T06:37:58.145Z
Place-Based Programming - Part 1 - Places 2021-04-14T22:18:15.184Z
I Trained a Neural Network to Play Helltaker 2021-04-07T08:24:27.982Z
Vim 2021-04-07T06:35:59.268Z
Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation 2021-04-02T21:42:12.937Z
[Book Review] Destiny Disrupted 2021-03-21T07:09:51.734Z
Conversation Exchange Statistics 2021-03-16T08:50:03.393Z
Clubhouse 2021-03-15T03:38:24.550Z
Blue is arbitrary 2021-03-14T09:04:30.058Z
How I come up with ideas 2021-03-12T09:01:31.916Z
[Prediction] The Consequences of Radical Reform 2021-03-09T23:05:07.747Z
Contrarian Writing Advice 2021-03-07T00:23:30.523Z
The Flexibility of Abstract Concepts 2021-03-02T06:43:21.170Z
Economic Class 2021-03-02T01:58:27.070Z
We should not raise awareness 2021-03-01T08:46:47.209Z
Media Bias 2021-02-22T21:14:59.529Z
Science Fiction 2021-02-22T09:35:16.361Z
The Kelly Criterion in 3D 2021-02-20T08:21:09.577Z
Chinese History 2021-02-15T06:43:45.708Z
The Median is Less than the Average 2021-02-15T02:28:39.788Z
This is my 100ᵗʰ post on Less Wrong 2021-02-14T03:11:44.055Z
The Economics of Media 2021-02-13T23:11:48.727Z
Sunzi's《Methods of War》- The Army's Form 2021-01-23T06:47:24.960Z
Help your rivals when they are numerous 2021-01-22T20:51:46.107Z
Reflections on "Psycho-Pass" 2021-01-22T09:41:44.479Z
[Book Review] The Chrysanthemum and the Sword 2021-01-22T06:29:22.131Z
Praying to God 2021-01-19T10:25:55.499Z
Conviction ⚖️ Skepticism 2021-01-19T08:04:58.926Z
How do you measure conformity? 2021-01-17T09:35:09.686Z
Wuwei 2021-01-17T08:28:21.034Z
The Future of Biological Warfare 2021-01-15T21:47:25.851Z
Deconditioning Aversion to Dislike 2021-01-15T07:57:15.074Z
Overconfidence 2021-01-10T10:36:38.216Z
Logic Like a Lawyer 2021-01-05T07:38:49.936Z
Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 13 2021-01-01T08:01:08.646Z
Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 12 2020-12-31T20:02:33.759Z
The 4-Hour Social Life 2020-12-30T00:58:13.915Z
Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 11 2020-12-27T09:03:19.624Z
Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 10 2020-12-24T08:33:38.988Z
Sunzi's《Methods of War》- Planning Attacks 2020-12-23T21:52:34.217Z
Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 9 2020-12-20T09:22:55.770Z
Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 8 2020-12-17T22:29:47.788Z
Hermione Granger and Newcomb's Paradox 2020-12-14T05:27:11.667Z
Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 7 2020-12-11T05:54:52.510Z
Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 6 2020-12-09T08:14:29.404Z
Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 5 2020-12-05T01:23:19.760Z

Comments

Comment by lsusr on [Letter] Advice for High School · 2021-04-23T01:12:53.035Z · LW · GW

That is a complicated subject which would require a dedicated post to explore in detail.

Comment by lsusr on [Letter] Advice for High School · 2021-04-23T00:09:45.721Z · LW · GW

Research into exercise physiology plus personal experience lifting weights.

Comment by lsusr on What books are for: a response to "Why books don't work." · 2021-04-23T00:02:55.158Z · LW · GW

Another way to think about books is as training data for a deep learning network. When you feed a thousand photos of airplanes into a neural network your goal isn't to get the network to remember the specific airplanes in your training dataset. If you did you'd probably have made the mistake of overtraining it. Rather, your goal is to teach the network to recognize the abstract concept of an airplane. Books could be similar. Their purpose could be to feed many variations of the a single concept through a human brain so it can absorb the pattern.

Comment by lsusr on Is there anything that can stop AGI development in the near term? · 2021-04-22T23:40:03.144Z · LW · GW

We have a chemical weapons ban because chemical weapons are obsolete. We have a Biological Weapons Convention too, but I think that's because today's biological weapons are like chemical weapons and future biological weapons favor non-state actors. Russia, China and the USA haven't even joined the Ottawa Treaty which bans landmines. We don't have a "multilateral, international governmental/legal agreement to halt" the production of nuclear weapons, cyberweapons or autonomous weapons. Nuclear weapons are easier to ban than AI because nuclear weapons require uranium, centrifuges and missiles whereas AI requires an AWS account. The risk of nuclear weapons are well-understood. The risks of AI are not.

If the short timeline theories are correct then the only thing which could slow the development of AI is to break civilization so hard technological progress grinds to a halt. If the short timeline theories are correct then nuclear war could slow down the advent of AI by mere decades.

Comment by lsusr on Covid 4/22: Crisis in India · 2021-04-22T23:00:58.156Z · LW · GW

Good point about the tropics. I could be wrong about the seasonal directionality. I had an unstated assumption that even if direction of the effect was inverted the change wouldn't be significant enough to account for the data. That was my real crux.

My reference point for religious rituals was Christmas in the United States. India's biggest religious rituals take place outside. Even if India's religious rituals were much bigger, they wouldn't cause a takeoff as fast as we observed in Zvi's graph.

That's a informative variant graph. I'm updating my probabilities to 98% it's one or more strains and 99% it's one or more strains and/or a change to the measurement. I'm going to add another prediction: 95% confidence that India fails to get B1.617 under control before it burns through the population.

But experts say India is unlikely to meet its target of covering 250 million people by July, especially as cases continue to surge.

Covid-19 vaccination: How is India's inoculation drive going from BBC News via Yahoo News

India is hosed. I wonder what happens when B1.617 hits other countries that haven't vaccinated their populations yet?

Comment by lsusr on Covid 4/22: Crisis in India · 2021-04-22T15:43:25.983Z · LW · GW

Great post. India will be a disaster for human welfare. I predict at 90% confidence that one or more new strains are responsible for the exponential growth of infections in India. Only three other things could cause it:

  • Summer. Seasonal change doesn't make sense because infections ought to go down, not up.
  • A change to testing or reporting. Possible but unlikely.
  • Complete breakdown of society on the scale of a civil war. If this happened I would have heard about it.

I predict with 98% confidence that the exponential growth is caused by a new strain, new strains, and/or sampling bias (testing + reporting).

If [you] still need to get vaccinated, there are lots of places to go if you look around.

This is true where I live. I am in the youngest adult age bracket and live in a Blue city. I got my first vaccination yesterday by taking a ferry to a nearby Red district.

Comment by lsusr on [Letter] Advice for High School · 2021-04-20T16:20:10.237Z · LW · GW

I recommend Hy because it's what I personally use and I can therefore vouch for it. I have heard nothing but good things about Clojure. I even attend a Clojure user group. The Clojure programmers I meet tend to be smart which is a good sign.

Comment by lsusr on [Letter] Advice for High School · 2021-04-20T04:43:11.529Z · LW · GW

The recommendation to lift weights applies to boys and girls. If you are a woman, lifting weights won't make you bulky. It will make you hot.

Comment by lsusr on Anger · 2021-04-19T06:44:46.460Z · LW · GW

To build off of your comment here, the idea that "anger can feel good" is a phrase where the meaning of individual words depends heavily on one's direct experience, personal background and cultural context.

Comment by lsusr on Anger · 2021-04-19T06:30:19.593Z · LW · GW

Emotional machinery is universal. Emotional ontologies can be culture-specific. I do differ on a lot of cultural assumptions relative to community here on Less Wrong such as on the flexibility of abstract concepts, civilization-specific ontologies, the essence of goodness and stuff that isn't even on the Western map.

Comment by lsusr on Are there good classes (or just articles) on blog writing? · 2021-04-19T05:08:40.437Z · LW · GW

If you want feedback on your blog then there are four options:

  1. You can review the work yourself.
  2. You can publish it online and read the comments.
  3. You can join a group where writers share drafts with each other.
  4. You can hire someone to read your work.

#1 only works if you can figure out what is wrong, which you can't. Besides, you already have published 50 posts on your blog (and written who-knows-how-many drafts) over many years without making progress. #2 tells you useful information but not how to structure a post. #3 might or might not fix your problem. Not everyone's personality is suitable for writing groups. #4 makes sense if you have money and can find the right teacher.

I have trouble deciding how to structure posts (or whether I should split them into a series), and I'm terrible at writing introductions and conclusions. I'm also not particularly good at headlines, although I consider this a less-important problem.

I read the five most recent posts on your blog. Your self-assessment is correct. Your posts do have structural problems. Your introductions and conclusions are terrible. Your headlines aren't great either. These issues mostly stem from your posts' lack of a clear objective.

I have lots of experience teaching things and I am available for hire. If you would like to hire me to help you learn how to write better then PM me and maybe we can work something out.

Comment by lsusr on Anger · 2021-04-18T21:30:27.407Z · LW · GW

I had intended to drop[1] the case for anger entirely.


  1. "Dropping", a debate context, refers to ignoring an argument without attempting to refute it. ↩︎

Comment by lsusr on Anger · 2021-04-18T21:24:22.539Z · LW · GW

When I watch the speeches of Martin Luther King Jr, I am inspired by his total absence of anger. Perhaps he is a saint, in which case I endeavor to follow his example.

Comment by lsusr on Anger · 2021-04-18T20:55:51.563Z · LW · GW

Yes. Suppressing anger is counterproductive.

Comment by lsusr on Anger · 2021-04-18T20:51:43.494Z · LW · GW

I agree that aggressive motivation can be useful in the weightroom, on the dais and elsewhere. I consider anger to tautologically require a desire to inflict suffering upon a conscious being. If we define anger more broadly to include a zealous zen master or a deadlifter then anger can be a good thing.

Could anthropomorphizing cancer and then getting angry at it help advance science? Maybe. I do not personally derive utility from this mindset but others might.

Comment by lsusr on Anger · 2021-04-18T20:44:05.040Z · LW · GW

This may be a disagreement about words. For me, hate comes from disgust and aversion whereas anger comes from a desire for comeuppance and redress. It sounds to me like your definition of hate is similar to my definition of anger. If my definition of anger equals your anger of hate then we are in agreement about reality.

Comment by lsusr on Rising rents and appropriate responses · 2021-04-18T16:27:43.923Z · LW · GW

Your friend's argument is basically the opposite of Georgian economics. It is a set of policies that maximizes land speculation at the expense of capital investment and even rent seeking. If you want to maximize value for incumbents then restrict construction without establishing rent controls. If you want to keep rents accessible to an influx of poor people then allow construction. You cannot provide housing for an influx of residents while restricting construction. There won't be enough living space to go around. The only way to provide sufficient housing while keeping prices low is to restrict immigration, which San Francisco lacks the sovereignty to do.

Every country wants their own Silicon Valley. Few have succeeded in creating one. Building new hubs is hard because there are massive network effects. In theory, it is possible. (Many countries have built massive industrial sectors via government-led industrial policy.) The problem is that centralized decision-makers are bad at urban planning in general and bad at building startup hubs in particular .

Comment by lsusr on You’re Good Enough, You’re Smart Enough, and People Would Like You · 2021-04-18T14:23:25.091Z · LW · GW

Thank you for the note about the thousand-to-one comment ratio. This platform doesn't provide view count analytics and I haven't installed such software on my blog so I have no idea what the actual ratios are.

By the way, I found this post on your blog (but I found your blog here) but chose to comment here because I prefer Less Wrong's commenting system to Wordpress's.

Comment by lsusr on Why has nuclear power been a flop? · 2021-04-16T19:23:33.182Z · LW · GW

What an excellent article, all around. I subscribed to Linear No Threshold before reading this. Thank you for the update.

Comment by lsusr on Place-Based Programming - Part 1 - Places · 2021-04-16T00:32:45.059Z · LW · GW

Note to readers: justinpombrio's parent comment was written when this post was titled "Place-Based Programming", before I changed the title to "Place-Based Programming - Part 1".


I think the disagreement here comes from me communicating different things to different people. I showed SatvikBeri a more complete system of which this post is just a tiny part. If all you see is this post (without the "Part 1") then justinpombrio's comment makes sense. If you see the entire project then SatvikBeri's comment makes sense.

justinpombrio's particular example can be solved with the defnp macro in Part 2.

(defnp myfunc [x] x)

(assert (= 3 value-of (myfunc 3))) ;; works
Comment by lsusr on Place-Based Programming - Part 1 - Places · 2021-04-16T00:29:32.281Z · LW · GW

Note to readers: skybrian's parent comment was written when this post was titled "Place-Based Programming", before I changed the title to "Place-Based Programming - Part 1".


Your are correct that the code here in Part 1 breaks when you use variables with nonlocal scope. I begin to solve this problem in Part 2.

It's also essentially the same kind of caching that's commonly done by build systems.

Yes. I often think about this project as "writing a compiler". Some of the techniques I use come from Makefiles.

Comment by lsusr on Place-Based Programming - Part 1 - Places · 2021-04-15T21:33:54.430Z · LW · GW

Fixed. Thanks.

Comment by lsusr on Hell is wasted on the evil · 2021-04-15T21:32:53.912Z · LW · GW

Fixed. Thanks.

Comment by lsusr on Training the YouTube Algorithm · 2021-04-15T19:29:21.770Z · LW · GW

I do this too. Then, after opening it in cognito, I press "Don't recommend channel".

Comment by lsusr on Training the YouTube Algorithm · 2021-04-15T18:42:10.166Z · LW · GW

Do you use a particular CSS editor plugin?

Comment by lsusr on Hell is wasted on the evil · 2021-04-15T18:40:59.939Z · LW · GW

No.

Comment by lsusr on Place-Based Programming - Part 1 - Places · 2021-04-14T23:37:38.821Z · LW · GW

You can go from hash to source code by saving the source code too in addition to saving the value. You can go from place to source code by treating source code as a value. Otherwise, hashing is a trapdoor function.

Comment by lsusr on Place-Based Programming - Part 1 - Places · 2021-04-14T23:33:53.025Z · LW · GW

Thanks. I have changed "simple caching system" to "persistent memoization system".

Comment by lsusr on Place-Based Programming - Part 1 - Places · 2021-04-14T23:24:14.143Z · LW · GW

This is accurate. Places are analogous to pointers.

Comment by lsusr on lsusr's Shortform · 2021-04-14T19:15:22.312Z · LW · GW

An aircraft carrier costs $13 billion. An anti-ship cruise missile costs $2 million. Few surface warships survived the first day of the Singularity War.

A cruise missile is a complex machine, guided by sensitive electronics. Semiconductor fabricators are even more complex machines. Few semiconductor factories survived the nuclear retaliation.

A B-52 Stratofortress is a simpler machine.

Robert (Bob) Manchester's bomber flew west from Boeing Field. The crew disassembled their landing gear and dropped it in the Pacific Ocean. The staticy voice of Mark Campbell, Leader of the Human Resistance, radioed into Robert's headset. Robert could barely hear it over the noise of the engines. He turned the volume up. It would damage his hearing but that didn't matter anymore. The attack wouldn't save America. Nothing could at this point. But the attack might buy time to launch a few extra von Neumann probes.

The squadron flew over miles after miles of automated factories. What was once called Tianjin was now just Sector 153. The first few flak cannons felt perfunctory. The anti-air fire increased as they drew closer to enemy network hub. Robert dropped the bombs. The pilot, Peter Garcia, looked for a target to kamikaze.

They drew closer to the ground. Robert Manchester looked out the window. He wondered why the Eurasian AI had chosen to structure its industry around such humanoid robots.

Comment by lsusr on lsusr's Shortform · 2021-04-12T21:51:58.907Z · LW · GW

I don't mind jumping through a few extra hoops in order to access a website idiosyncratically. But sometimes the process feels overly sectarian.

I was trying out the Tencent cloud without using Tor when I got a CAPTCHA. Sure, whatever. They verified my email. That's normal. Then they wanted to verify my phone number. Okay. (Using phone numbers to verify accounts is standard practice for Chinese companies.) Then they required me to verify my credit card with a nominal $1 charge. I can understand their wanting to take extra care when it comes to processing international transactions. Then they required me to send a photo of my driver's licence. Fine. Then they required 24 hours to process my application. Okay. Then they rejected my application. I wonder if that's what the Internet feels like everyday to non-Americans.

I often anonymize my traffic with Tor. Sometimes I'll end up on the French or German Google, which helps remind me that the Internet I see everyday is not the Internet everyone else sees.

Other people use Tor too, which is necessary to anonymize my traffic. Some Tor users aren't really people. They're bots. By accessing access the Internet from the same Tor exit relays as these bots, websites often suspect me of being a bot.

I encounter many pages like this.

This is a Russian CAPTCHA.

Prove you're human by typing "вчepaшний garden". Maybe I should write some OCR software to make proving my humanity less inconvenient.

Another time I had to identify which Chinese characters were written incorrectly.

The most frustrating CAPTCHAs require me to annotate images for self-driving cars. I do not mind annotating images of self-driving cars. I do mind, after having spent several minutes annotating images of self-driving cards, getting rejected based off of a traffic analysis of my IP address.

Comment by lsusr on A Brief Review of Current and Near-Future Methods of Genetic Engineering · 2021-04-11T03:10:46.924Z · LW · GW

What an informative, well-researched, well-written post. I am curious about the Iterated Embryo Selection. If you use two parents then would it result in inbreeding? Would you need more than two parents to avoid inbreeding? If the latter then that could reduce the rate of adoption.

You also mention that "that optimizing for any objective X will eventually impact another objective Y if one pushes hard enough". This is true. I wonder how much of it can be avoided by both optimizing for a positive trait X while simultaneously optimizing against the traits of people with negative life outcomes.

Comment by lsusr on Vim · 2021-04-08T06:09:56.235Z · LW · GW

Escape is farther from home row.

Comment by lsusr on I Trained a Neural Network to Play Helltaker · 2021-04-07T22:45:06.193Z · LW · GW

The laptop is from 2013. It doesn't even have an Nvidia-compatible GPU. I actually did train on low resolution footage. The model takes a 64x64 pixel image as input.

Comment by lsusr on Vim · 2021-04-07T17:54:27.832Z · LW · GW

Keyboard shortcuts are faster than the mouse. Keys accessible from homerow are faster than distant keys like the arrow keys. Keyboard shortcuts you can combine are more powerful than standalone keyboard shortcuts. As gianlucatruda mentioned, the important thing is Vim keybindings, not the editor itself. You can get a similar speed boost by installing Vim keybindings on your favorite editor.

I learned Vim very early in my programming career because I knew the upfront investment would pay itself over many times—and it has. Vim has paid my initial investment back many times over purely in terms of time saved. But speed does not just help me save time editing files. It also helps me think faster because my memory is volatile. For every time interval there is a chance I will forget a critical piece of information. My volatile memory puts a limit on how complex of a task I can handle. If my think-decide-act cycles iterate faster, I can complete more complicated tasks before my volatile memory expires.

Comment by lsusr on Vim · 2021-04-07T17:43:24.265Z · LW · GW

In addition, some old Unix utilities like less use a subset of Vim keybindings by default.

Comment by lsusr on Vim · 2021-04-07T17:41:54.257Z · LW · GW

I'm in the same boat. I do most of my text editing in Spacemacs with Vim keybindings. Please let me know if you figure out a good in-browser text entry solution.

Comment by lsusr on I Trained a Neural Network to Play Helltaker · 2021-04-07T16:54:19.864Z · LW · GW

It memorized them.

Comment by lsusr on March 2021 gwern.net newsletter · 2021-04-06T17:31:08.773Z · LW · GW

Stavrova and Ehlebracht (2019) observed that individuals perceived that highly cynical people have greater cognitive ability despite finding a consistently negative relationship when directly measuring these characteristics.

―Quote from Can You Ever Be Too Smart for Your Own Good?, from the PSYCHOLOGY/BIOLOGY links.

The above quote could be interpreted one of two ways. It could mean people believe that cynical people (in general) have greater cognitive ability or it could mean that people, when they observe cynicism, treat it as a sign of greater cognitive ability. I looked up Stavrova and Ehlebracht's paper to find out which one it is.

Four studies showed that laypeople tend to believe in cynical individuals’ cognitive superiority. A further three studies based on the data of about 200,000 individuals from 30 countries debunked these lay beliefs as illusionary by revealing that cynical (vs. less cynical) individuals generally do worse on cognitive ability and academic competency tasks. Cross-cultural analyses showed that competent individuals held contingent attitudes and endorsed cynicism only if it was warranted in a given sociocultural environment. Less competent individuals embraced cynicism unconditionally, suggesting that—at low levels of competence—holding a cynical worldview might represent an adaptive default strategy to avoid the potential costs of falling prey to others’ cunning.

Comment by lsusr on Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation · 2021-04-04T05:13:27.016Z · LW · GW

Of course, this only has a chance of working if the inputs and labels come from a continuous stream, as they would if the input were the output of another network.

Predictive processing is thus well-suited for BNNs because the real-time sensory data of a living organism, including sensory data preprocessed by another network, is a continuous stream.

Comment by lsusr on Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation · 2021-04-03T18:28:54.208Z · LW · GW

Due to the need to iterate the vs until convergence, the predictive coding network had roughly a 100x greater computational cost than the backprop network.

The paper claims that predictive coding takes more compute. I agree that predictive coding ought to be more parallelizable. If you are using a GPU then backpropagation is already sufficiently parallelizable. However, it may be that neuromorphic hardware could parallelize better than a GPU, thus producing an increase in compute power that outstrips the 100x greater computational cost of the algorithm itself.

Comment by lsusr on Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation · 2021-04-03T18:01:03.579Z · LW · GW

Good point. Transfer learning is allowed but it still counts towards the total training data where "training data" is now everything a human can process over a lifetime.

Comment by lsusr on Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation · 2021-04-03T08:25:51.349Z · LW · GW

What are the sign errors?

Comment by lsusr on Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation · 2021-04-03T08:21:02.458Z · LW · GW

Daniel Kokotajlo was the person who originally pointed me to this article. Thank you!

There is no question that human brains have tons of instincts built-in. But there is a hard limit on how much information a single species' instincts can contain. It is implausible that human beings' cognitive instincts contain significantly more information than the human genome (750 megabytes). I expect our instincts contain much less.

Human brains definitely have special architectures too, like the hippocampus. The critical question is how important these special architectures are. Are our special architectures critical to general intelligence or are they just speed hacks? If they are speed hacks then we can outrace them by building a bigger computer or writing more efficient algorithms.

There is no doubt that humans transmit more cultural knowledge than other animals. This has to do with language. (More specifically, I think our biology underpinning language hit a critical point around 50,000 years ago.) Complex grammar is not present in any non-human animal. Wernicke's area is involved. Wernicke's area could be a special architecture.

How important are the above human advantages? I believe that taking a popular ANN architecture and merely scaling it up will not enable a neural network to compete with humans at StarCraft with equal quantities of training data. If, in addition, the ANN is not allowed to utilize transfer learning then I am willing to publicly bet money on this prediction. (The ANN must be restricted to a human rate of actions-per-second. The ANN does not get to play via an API or similar hand-coded preprocessor. If the ANN watches videos of other players then that counts towards its training data.)

Comment by lsusr on Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation · 2021-04-03T07:53:48.925Z · LW · GW

The black circles represent neurons. The red triangles represent activations (action potentials). Action potentials' information content is shared between presynaptic neurons and postsynaptic neurons because activations are transmitted from the presynaptic neuron to the postsynaptic neuron.

The black arrows in the bottom diagram denote the physical creation of action potentials. The red arrows denote intra-neuron calculation of the gradient. Keep in mind that each neuron knows both the action potential it generates itself and the action potentials sent to it.

Comment by lsusr on Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation · 2021-04-03T07:45:07.529Z · LW · GW

hat = .

Comment by lsusr on Covid 4/1: Vaccine Passports · 2021-04-03T06:01:09.374Z · LW · GW

This is fascinating. I expect many readers of Less Wrong would be interested in top-level posts about what the world looks like from the perspective of a state government civil servant.

Comment by lsusr on Covid 4/1: Vaccine Passports · 2021-04-03T05:56:09.735Z · LW · GW

In the specific case of Taiwan, the only sane strategy (which they are doing) is to require all newcomers to undergo a two-week quarantine.

Incoming visitors have a strong incentive to avoid quarantine. It is difficult for the Taiwanese government to confirm whether someone from the United States or another country has been vaccinated. Allowing visitors who claim to have been vaccinated enter the country without quarantine guarantees a COVID outbreak. Taiwan has COVID under control. Taiwan has few citizens vaccinated. A COVID outbreak in Taiwan would be a national disaster.

A mandatory quarantine may not make sense for Canada on consequentialist grounds since COVID has long since gotten out-of-control there. But the general principle of a mandatory quarantine is sound.

Comment by lsusr on Why We Launched LessWrong.SubStack · 2021-04-01T17:50:04.823Z · LW · GW

Future posts will be viewable on the NFT blockchain. You can alternatively wait for the price of Bitcoin to go down.

Comment by lsusr on Why We Launched LessWrong.SubStack · 2021-04-01T08:24:16.660Z · LW · GW

I could not comment on Substack itself. It presents me with a CAPTCHA where I have to prove I am human by demonstrating qualia. As a philosophical zombie, I believe this is discriminatory but must acknowledge that no one of ethical consequence is being harmed. Rather than fight this non-injustice, I am simply posting on the obsolete Less Wrong 2.0 instead.

Here are my thoughts on the new posts.

  • HPMOR: The Epilogue was surprising yet inevitable. It is hard to say more without spoiling it.
  • My favorite part of all the new posts is Scott Alexander's prescient "war to end all wars". Now would be a great time to apply his insights to betting markets if they weren't all doomed. The "sticks and stones" approach to mutually-assured destruction was a stroke of genius.
  • I reluctantly acknowledge that introductory curations of established knowledge are a necessity for mortals. Luke Muelhauser's explanation is old hat if you have been keeping up with the literature for the last five millennia.
  • You can judge Galef's book by a glance at the cover.
  • I am looking forward to Gwern's follow-up post on where the multiversal reintegrator came from.
  • Robin Hanson is correct. LessWrong's objective has shifted. Our priority these days is destroying the world, which we practice ritualistically every September 26th.