Notebook for generating forecasting bets

post by Amandango · 2020-09-26T20:36:05.878Z · LW · GW · None comments

Contents

  Comparison of predictions:
  What the notebook outputs:
    the event occurs between 24 Oct 2051 and 17 Sep 2059, Ben Pace should pay SDM $87. Otherwise, SDM should pay Ben Pace $13.
  What this is actually doing:
None
No comments

We made a colab notebook that lets you generate a bet from two people's Elicit distributions. You can edit the notebook to generate your bet (the changes won't be saved). Here's an example of a suggested bet between Ben Pace and SDM on AI timelines:

Comparison of predictions:

Snapshot link

 

What the notebook outputs:

If the event occurs between 24 Oct 2051 and 17 Sep 2059, Ben Pace should pay SDM $87. Otherwise, SDM should pay Ben Pace $13. 

Disagreement: You disagree most between 24 Oct 2051 and 17 Sep 2059. 

Probabilities: Ben Pace thinks the probability the event occurs in this range is 8%, while SDM thinks it's 18%. 

Odds: You should make a bet with 87:13 odds. 

Expected Value: Given your beliefs, you each win $5 in expectation

 

What this is actually doing:

None comments

Comments sorted by top scores.