Notebook for generating forecasting bets
post by Amandango · 2020-09-26T20:36:05.878Z · LW · GW · 0 commentsContents
Comparison of predictions: What the notebook outputs: If the event occurs between 24 Oct 2051 and 17 Sep 2059, Ben Pace should pay SDM $87. Otherwise, SDM should pay Ben Pace $13. What this is actually doing: None No comments
We made a colab notebook that lets you generate a bet from two people's Elicit distributions. You can edit the notebook to generate your bet (the changes won't be saved). Here's an example of a suggested bet between Ben Pace and SDM on AI timelines:
Comparison of predictions:
What the notebook outputs:
If the event occurs between 24 Oct 2051 and 17 Sep 2059, Ben Pace should pay SDM $87. Otherwise, SDM should pay Ben Pace $13.
Disagreement: You disagree most between 24 Oct 2051 and 17 Sep 2059.
Probabilities: Ben Pace thinks the probability the event occurs in this range is 8%, while SDM thinks it's 18%.
Odds: You should make a bet with 87:13 odds.
Expected Value: Given your beliefs, you each win $5 in expectation
What this is actually doing:
- We search across the question range to find the interval (with a width of 10% of the total range) where your probabilities differ the most, including the probabilities outside of the bounds
- We determine odds that create equal and positive expected value for each person using the method outlined in this blog post
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