Predict the future! Earn fake internet points! Get a (free) gambling addiction!

post by Robert Cousineau (robert-cousineau) · 2023-12-12T04:39:50.162Z · ? · GW · 0 comments

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  The event is going to be hosted in a private space so please text me for the address; my google voice number is +1(425-298-5490).
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Please RSVP on the meetup page for my sanity.  It's held at a private location in Redmond - text my google voice number (+1(425-298-5490)) for the address.

Have you felt like the Seattle EA/Rationality community was too responsible?
Found it overflowing with enviable time management practices?
Decided you needed to do something about it?

Well, I did!
That's why your on the page for the inaugural sEAstside Prediction Market Meetup!

What are prediction markets? In an article about the website we'll be using, the New York Times said: "They were there to celebrate prediction markets, online platforms where users can wager on future events — everything from 'Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?' to 'Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have a physical fight in 2023?'".

In my words, they let you bet on the likelihood of an event and win money/fake internet points when you are right (and vice versa). They are ridiculously fun, they provide a social good (accurate probabilities on future events), and I think they could be a great alternative bonding activity for the EA community (and one that doesn't require us to have the executive function to read a book beforehand).

I personally have quite enjoyed my time on the prediction market website manifold.markets where you use fake internet points to bet on the outcome of events. Each fake internet point can also be used to donate money to a charity of your choice.

During this first meetup my plan is to (asynchronously/optionally) have us do any and/or all of the following:

  1. Offer an in person explainer on what prediction markets are to anyone who is interested.
  2. Discuss recent prediction markets we think are interesting
  3. Let people who already have accounts talk/brag about what they have done well betting on, what their strategies are, etc.
  4. Discuss future meetups, set up a little organizer structure (we're gonna do an overthrow the organizer day [LW · GW] in the future)
  5. Have everyone generically chat/socialize as usual
  6. Fill everyone up on free food and drinks :)

The event is going to be hosted in a private space so please text me for the address; my google voice number is +1(425-298-5490).

Feel free to comment here if you have any questions (or join the discord)

Finally, don't forget to earn yourself some fake internet points after you RSVP, using this market!

For more information on prediction markets feel free to take a look at the following:

  1. This YouTube video on prediction markets:
  2. This guy explaining then, and then emphatically arguing they are better than polls (they are!)
  3. The Manifold Markets "About" page

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