When will total cases in the EU surpass that of China?

post by jmh · 2020-03-17T12:34:32.980Z · LW · GW · 3 comments

This is a question post.

Pretty much says it all. Bloomburg show the count for Europe as 64 thousand and doesn't look like the curve is ready to level off.

Do people think a couple of days for Europe to exceed China's (near 81,000) or more?

The follow up is what will be the total?

Answers

answer by Pablo (Pablo_Stafforini) · 2020-03-17T17:15:15.620Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Over the past few days, cases in Europe have been doubling every four days, while cases in China have been increasing linearly, at a rate of 25 cases or so per day. There are currently around 71k cumulative cases in Europe, and 81k cumulative cases in China. So we should expect Europe to surpass China in 18 hours or so.

comment by Pablo (Pablo_Stafforini) · 2020-03-18T18:11:15.743Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

And 18 or so hours later... Europe surpasses China.

answer by waveman · 2020-03-18T00:38:55.962Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The assumption here is that the CCP-ruled China figures are accurate. I have been trying to find some way to validate them. As one example, contrast the claims that things are rapidly getting back to normal with traffic data from Wuhan https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/wuhan-traffic

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