Posts

Use of GPT-3 for identifying Phishing and other email based attacks? 2021-05-29T17:11:39.766Z
PrinciplesYou - Seems to be a new personality assessment tool 2021-04-22T19:20:46.384Z
AstraZeneca COVID Vaccine and blood clots 2021-03-15T13:16:24.878Z
For those who advocate Anki 2021-01-31T00:01:20.698Z
What do people think of the Futurism site? 2020-11-21T17:32:21.794Z
In 1 year and 5 years what do you see as "the normal" world. 2020-09-10T12:47:35.497Z
What is the current process for increases testing? 2020-07-12T17:21:49.847Z
Restricted Diet and Longevity, does eating pattern matter? 2020-06-01T21:28:19.010Z
Will the many protests throughout the USA prove to be good test cases for reopening? 2020-05-31T12:15:31.400Z
If bacteria gave us a tool for bio engineering, have viruses given us a delivery mechanism? 2020-05-20T22:31:08.099Z
Do any mammal species exhibit an immune response in some of the herd in response to the infection in other herd members? 2020-05-16T17:33:24.946Z
Will the world hit 10 million recorded cases of COVID-19? If so when? 2020-05-13T17:26:07.232Z
Settle Investment Trades Only Daily an improvement? True or False 2020-05-11T21:56:04.882Z
COVID-19 from a different angle 2020-05-04T17:58:02.100Z
Should we be reassessing the argument for globalization? 2020-04-26T13:52:40.126Z
Could city design impact spread of infections? 2020-04-22T14:57:54.511Z
COVID-19 and the US Elections 2020-04-08T18:25:20.425Z
What is going on in Singapore and the Philippines? 2020-04-06T11:27:25.268Z
What marginal returns now? 2020-03-30T23:12:03.853Z
Ideas on estimating personal risk of infection 2020-03-23T16:33:29.442Z
North Korea and COVID-19 2020-03-19T15:51:48.428Z
When will total cases in the EU surpass that of China? 2020-03-17T12:34:32.980Z
What might be learned from the COVID-19 buying patterns? 2020-03-15T02:58:26.078Z
Best time to take supplements? 2020-03-13T15:11:40.293Z
Dealing with the left overs: COVID-19 2020-03-05T14:10:02.299Z
To mask or not mask 2020-03-04T15:55:04.646Z
Did everyone miss the big thing about your phone? 2020-03-04T13:35:15.495Z
Is there a better way to define groups for COVID-19 impact? 2020-03-04T13:24:51.221Z
SARS, MERS and COVID-19 2020-03-01T20:53:06.459Z
Will the current COVID-19 outbreak increase the use of block-chain in supply chain management globally? 2020-02-28T14:53:15.777Z
Literature regarding epidemics and political stability? 2020-02-24T13:21:50.937Z
Making Sense of Coronavirus Stats 2020-02-20T15:12:51.292Z
It "wanted" ... 2020-02-15T20:52:07.094Z
Source of Karma 2020-02-09T14:13:30.650Z
Are the bad epistemic conditions global? 2020-01-25T23:31:21.283Z
AI Alignment, Constraints, Control, Incentives or Partnership? 2019-12-31T13:42:56.471Z
Double Cruz and Verification of Claims 2019-11-21T13:37:57.368Z
Current Law Proposed to allow competition in Social Media 2019-10-23T13:13:32.581Z
Does human choice have to be transitive in order to be rational/consistent? 2019-08-11T01:49:23.967Z
Would refining the question a bit be better in terms of getting to answers? 2019-08-01T16:25:32.549Z
Another case of "common sense" not being common? 2019-07-31T17:15:40.674Z
Learning Over Time for AI and Humans and Rationality 2019-06-13T13:23:58.639Z

Comments

Comment by jmh on Delta variant: we should probably be re-masking · 2021-07-25T14:00:50.310Z · LW · GW

This touches on something I think is an obvious follow up from the experiences we've had but have not really seem anything about it in general public discussion. That might be just that it's not really "news worthy" from media's perspective.

For these airborne diseases it should be obvious (and seems like it's been demonstrated with some empirical findings from reported cases) that recirculating air internally is not the best idea. You do want to pull outside air in, probably do some filtering of it and perhaps even other sanitizing actions (UV light) and the expel the internal air. But I've not heard anything about updates to building code in that regard. Nor have I seen any obvious work on that being done for retail places or apartment/condo or office buildings.

Of course that only works for things like SARS-CoV-2 that doesn't survive well outside a body so leaves open the possibility that the next pandemic would be the one we pump in from the outside air and don't have the right filter/sanitizing tools in place.

Comment by jmh on Working With Monsters · 2021-07-25T13:50:59.723Z · LW · GW

Seems like you're rejecting the idea that a "grossly unjust" law could be a scissors statement?

Comment by jmh on Delta variant: we should probably be re-masking · 2021-07-24T15:37:02.392Z · LW · GW

Just for disclosure purposes I an fully vaccinated (Moderna) and generally have started (never fully stopped) still sport a mask in places I would have before.  For me that is really more about the unvaccinated that I suspect are taking advantage of the new no-mask if fully vaccinated but no one will ever check standard in place now.

I would think one might want to do a quick review of what we got right and what we got wrong in the first year+ of our response and policies related to social interaction with COVID present. If does seem that one of the earlier takeaways was that some policies were mandated too broadly. By the time some regions really needed to be following the policies they were completed burned out on the costs of the too early an adoption. That seems to have helped support a lot of the current resistance we currently see.

Not sure if there are more aspects to consider that are similar to that observation but I do get the sense that our experts are all too happy to follow the old script which was of questionable quality.

Comment by jmh on Working With Monsters · 2021-07-21T14:28:06.817Z · LW · GW

This largely captures my views about myself and choosing to follow a generally civil life -- accepting that I am not the moral authority, judge and jury even when I find my own moral senses insulted by various actions from others.

I think for me though it's about not even making the choice between blue or green explicitly -- perhaps creating an internal ambiguity that I may well be a monster (when I decide to say eff it all for following civil conventions and laws) rather than the moral person I claim (make the appearance to be) by limiting my actions and let social rules govern various outcomes.

Comment by jmh on Re: Competent Elites · 2021-07-16T14:27:47.350Z · LW · GW

One thing I've noticed is that the really smart people actually don't tend to act like they are. They don't spend a lot of time trying to convince those slower than they are about things -- they don't really "argue down" as it were.

Comment by jmh on AlphaFold 2 paper released: "Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold", Jumper et al 2021 · 2021-07-16T14:10:34.799Z · LW · GW

As I recall the accuracy measurement was something of an average over the whole molecule deviation which could then allow small portions (local) of the predicted shape to differ from the true shape a good bit more.

First, is that a correct recollection? If so, does anyone know of any work on exploring the importance of local deviations from the global averaged type metrics? I would think that would be very important in this type of modeling.

Comment by jmh on Book Review: Order Without Law · 2021-07-12T00:24:16.736Z · LW · GW

One additional "follow up" reading -- maybe best thought of as a companion reading -- would be Author Houge's The Origins of the Common Law

I think it would fit well into the area where local, informal norms intersecting with more formal legal/dispute resolution institutions. As I recall Elllickson did not spend too much time, hardly a surprise given his focus, on that area.

I think it would be very interesting to see someone take his hypotheses and theory and apply it to some of the more recent events that have occurred. For example, some of the smaller communities in the Dakotas and Montana area which seem pretty "neighborly" internally but seem to clash with outsiders and even local and state formal structures. 

Comment by jmh on Improving capital gains taxes · 2021-07-10T21:06:46.839Z · LW · GW

I would be a bit concerned about the disincentive towards investing in that approach. I also think the pay back if loses in the following year just adds some complexity and opportunities for both confusion and gaming activities.

At the same time it does seem to fit with my view that one's taxes should be proportional to the benefit derived by participating in the society and economy.

To the extent the concern is the (apparent?) imbalance between what the rich pay and what the bottom rungs pay I think I might try a different approach. What if:

  1. W2 income were not taxed for revenue but each of us was still on the hook for FICA (all of it).
  2. Income taxes were levied on business activity -- net revenue
  3. Dividend and Capital gains remain a bit as they are now.

I would keep capital gains taxes lower than income taxes for incentive reasons. Just where we put dividends, I suppose a case could be made they are very similar to business income so taxed at the same rate as the net business revenue.

I think two things fall out of that. First, taxing real people's income is a bit like taxing their contribution to society and the economy and not the benefit they get by being part of society/the economy. Yes, I know it could be put in the same category as all other economic activity but really has a different feel to me -- and I think others. So for those only collecting a paycheck their taxes are zero or near that. The perception that somehow the rich are getting over on the poor worker is now gone in terms of tax burdens and policies.

Second, I think that simplify both the over all cost of collecting and auditing taxes. Business no longer have to worry about employee related taxes (though that might be something they keep doing for a number of reasons), businesses already have tax experts where as individuals generally don't. Even with fairly low cost tax services and software there are still a lot of things your average Joe/Jane misses keeping around or recording over the year. The IRS probably is smaller and I would guess that estimating government revenue would be easier as well.

There is also the whole shell type game with the funds going on. The employer pays the workers at a rate that allows the worker to pay the taxes that are collected on their income. Then the employee has to mess around with the income tax filing and account for some final adjustments. Seems like taking the employee out of the shell game eliminates pretty much all the questions about just how much tax is due so could be correctly paid on the defined quarterly schedules.

Comment by jmh on ELI12: how do libertarians want wages to work? · 2021-06-25T20:21:13.966Z · LW · GW

But it seems very little government intervention into any economic activity or relationship is really dominated by the wishes or needs of those directly involved. Most seems related to external impact -- parties outside the direct exchange.

Comment by jmh on ELI12: how do libertarians want wages to work? · 2021-06-25T20:01:54.747Z · LW · GW

If you've not read Hirshmann's Exit, Voice and Loyalty  I would add that to list of reading.

Perhaps another contextual box to put the question into might also be some of the theory of the firm literature -- particularly for the large corporations to what extent are they as much market internally as external market participants. Not sure if there would be anything to glean from the internal transfer pricing literature but to the extent wages can be modeled as other prices some light might be present.

Comment by jmh on ELI12: how do libertarians want wages to work? · 2021-06-24T21:15:05.016Z · LW · GW

Not at all related to any libertarian or other political view point.

There's a huge literature for labor economics that will have a lot of theory on wages and employee-employer market workings.

Some of the more simple approaches is to assume wages and labor services are no different from any other price and service/good setting.  You can add another layer here related to reservation wage which then puts the floor in. One might argue that some market failure situation exists that makes the reservation wage fail to bind market wages so government imposed minimum wage should be set to the appropriate reservation wage level. (Note, I am not aware of anyone actually making that argument but think one would find bits or even all of that in much of the literature.)

I think perhaps a more interesting line might be something of a mixed model where one analyzes the internal compensation/pay policies for the employer as a distributive problem rather than the allocative problem that often seems to underlie wage models. Then across the industry/sector you would see something of a market wage observed but the formation would be driven by something a bit different than the standard econ 101 type story. I'm also not aware of any model like this but would expect that at least some of the labor econ literature at least implicitly includes it.

Comment by jmh on The Point of Trade · 2021-06-22T23:48:36.794Z · LW · GW

The title kind of threw me a bit. At first I was thinking a long the lines of at the time of trade. Clearly a different direction.

I also find myself a bit in disagreement with pretty much all the responses and perhaps the point of the post. What everyone seems to be talking about is not what I would call the point of trade. I would call them all the forces towards trading, the enablers of trade opportunities or something along those lines.

This is not to say everything said doesn't have a place in a model. But they all seem one step away. Most of what was suggested seems to fit into Mises' old "man has felt wants and known means". "known means" included both the resources someone owns and all other resources they know about. Take everyone that has been said and we're left with one remaining point of trade being ownership. Solve that with Star Trek replicator tech and now we have no trade.

But has all the really provided a clear, concise statement of the point of trade? I don't think so.

For me, the answer to what is the point of trade is equilibration. Trade is a response/reaction to underlying pressures or opportunities within the economy/society. In other words, the point of trade is not all those things identified but rather the elimination of all those potentials.

Comment by jmh on Covid 6/10: Somebody Else’s Problem · 2021-06-16T12:35:05.098Z · LW · GW

Pretty much but perhaps a bit more extreme. What if that then spins into the view of a biologic warfare act that is feeding into the growing nationalism and increasingly polarized relationships and politics both internationally and internally in some countries vested in the discussion?

Comment by jmh on Covid 6/10: Somebody Else’s Problem · 2021-06-12T13:06:17.588Z · LW · GW

Not sure if this really belongs as a reply to Charlie or as a separate comment but seems to fit into the larger bucket here.

I do agree that considering the biology from a simple fact inquiry is needed (and I think others have been doing). 

However, I think a big question is not being asked here. What happens if the truth becomes known? First, I think the outcomes will be a bit asymmetric -- with proof of zoonotic origins being mostly a non-consequenceal outcome while proof of a lab leak potentially very dangerous. 

Is there an element of some type of information cascade type situation here? How might that inform public debate and disclosure of facts and information?

Comment by jmh on Alcohol, health, and the ruthless logic of the Asian flush · 2021-06-08T15:38:11.329Z · LW · GW

I don't quite understand why we needed the speculative evolutionary intro here. For me it seems to be a distraction and a bit questionable.

Comment by jmh on Networks of Trust vs Markets · 2021-06-04T01:47:17.677Z · LW · GW

I was also under the impression that China, and many other Asian countries where status and "face" is highly important were generally considered low trust cultures -- meaning you expect your neighbor to behave opportunistically if you're not watching closely.

Comment by jmh on What's your visual experience when reading technical material? · 2021-05-27T23:21:18.206Z · LW · GW

A mechanic engineer once told me that anyone wanting to be one should be able to visualize in 3-D or they will struggle.

Seems to fit with your view -- and I suspect also for any chemical engineering as well.

Comment by jmh on [Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050 · 2021-05-26T19:37:17.163Z · LW · GW

So the whole EEZ rights that these other nations are recognized as having should just be ignored? We should just toss the entire UN bath water out?

I think giving into China on SCS and its claims that conflict with international rules it has agreed with and signed on to necessarily make a mockery of any claims to supporting a LWO or a USA commitment to any such order.

Comment by jmh on [Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050 · 2021-05-26T19:32:53.162Z · LW · GW

I doubt population size is really a good metric for estimating odds for a battle/invasion. Used to be that the rule of thumb was the attacking force needed 3 times the forces of the defender.  In the case of Taiwan one might think a higher ratio would be required for many of the same reasons you suggest carriers are essentially sunk costs in a war.

I'm also not sure I agree with your assessment of interests or how long their agenda has been in place. There is that whole century of shame/humiliation its been looking to payback and allow a return to its rightful place as the apex culture. It has also been an imperial culture and polity for much, much longer than it's been democratic or socialist/communist. 

With regards to it largely playing by the LWO rules I think that is also rather questionable. It has used its position and acceptance into the UN and other international organizations well to lay the ground work for where they are today. It did so by not playing within the spirit of the rules and often not even within the letter of the rules. But that was just long experience with bureaucratic structures and using them to further imperial goals.

Comment by jmh on Is there a term for 'the mistake of making a decision based on averages when you could cherry picked instead'? · 2021-05-25T19:47:51.773Z · LW · GW

Seems like a form of a fallacy of composition error. Might also be a category error in thinking the aggregate statistic that offers a (part of the) description about the distribution of the whole can be seen as representing meaningful information about individual elements.

Comment by jmh on Signalling lack of familiarity with outsiders or outside knowledge, to raise status among your in-group peers? · 2021-05-24T16:27:22.796Z · LW · GW

I do think there must be some aspect of that in the situation but I don't think that is complete.

Seems that trust here is also connected to loyalty -- we're all in the same ship and will suffer the same fate. Those who have options elsewhere do have more choices but that itself doesn't imply they are less trustworthy or loyal to the group. (Though I agree some will cast them in that light.)

If things get tough what should the group action be? Just keep doing as before and suffer; even if that means the ultimate demise of the group? Maybe. Or perhaps the approach would be more like over time things change and the group also needs to evolve. Those with outside exposure, who have clearly signaled a commitment to the group by staying when they could have changes associations already, might be the very members that can help save the group while preserving the "essence" of the group. (There's probably a very large post (collection of posts) needed there ;-)

So who should members trust here and why? Seems like this is just a bit of a microcosm of what we see in lots of social and politic behaviors in the world at larger levels (which I assume the point of the OP might have been).

For those who have not heard of it, the book Exit, Voice and Loyalty, by Albert Hirshmann, might be a worthwhile read.

Comment by jmh on Thinking About Generators · 2021-05-16T13:37:07.711Z · LW · GW

If you have natural gas to your house that might also be an option -- nothing to store and it's always on as it were. This would be nice for any extended use of the generator where the gas or propane tank might run out and need to be refilled requiring the generator motor to be shut off. 

Also, if you want to use your car as the fuel container, check to see if the fuel rail on the manifold has a fuel outlet port -- many do for things like attaching a pressure gauge or just releasing the pressure in the line and draining. You can also splice something into the lines if not. Then you can just use the fuel pump in the tank to fill the generator (or fill the fuel jug that will fill the generator).

Comment by jmh on On silence · 2021-05-12T13:42:18.074Z · LW · GW

A somewhat disturbing implication. But worth considering just what I am still doing some repression/avoidance about. Thanks for the comment.

Comment by jmh on On silence · 2021-05-01T00:34:43.722Z · LW · GW

Thanks for writing this. I do think it's an interesting question to explore.

I'm not sure what to make of it though. When I was in college, and even at work, I found I could actually concentrate better with some background music or noise going on. Not just any sounds but something you might say was "known" or "familiar" or "expected". Too quiet an environment was oddly a distraction for me.

That still holds for me but I do often find myself in a quiet setting. What I notice is that the quieter my environment is the louder my thoughts are -- I hear my thinking rather than just think and do.

I'm not sure what I should make of that observation though.

Comment by jmh on Core Pathways of Aging · 2021-03-30T03:29:29.982Z · LW · GW

One thing I wonder about here is whether or not having a certain amount of "garbage" in the DNA is not actually a good thing. My understanding is that material transfers due to chromosomal overlaps as well. As that would be a purely random process there's no guarantees that transfers occur at the beginning and end of the used/functional gene segment. Having some amount of meaningless sections seems like it would reduce the probability of the legs of the chromosomes overlapping at dangerous locations.

Comment by jmh on Another RadVac Testing Update · 2021-03-27T15:47:46.994Z · LW · GW

I'm not sure DI water would be a suitable "placebo" here. Perhaps a placebo effect is not even what is occurring. Previously you were inhaling something with small particles -- a bit like what happens every spring with pollen. Perhaps a test with some other inert matter that might not even be able to invade your body much less produce some type of chemical reactions with the cells or cellular processes?

Comment by jmh on The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence · 2021-03-20T15:38:44.008Z · LW · GW

I think this points to two very important things about investing and trading regardless of EMH.

  1. psychology of the person
  2. We tend to note the loses we avoided (that is the money we kept) much higher than the gains we missed (the money we actually lost by not playing in the game).

Unless someone has a good plan for how to manage and overcome those two aspects of their own mind I suspect they will find it difficult to ever commit to any investing or trading program/strategy. It will not take too much to push them back into the behavior reflected in your comments.

Comment by jmh on Covid 3/18: An Expected Quantity of Blood Clots · 2021-03-19T20:10:37.305Z · LW · GW

I'm not sure about that. Seems like everyone gets that posted speed limits are not magic numbers such that exceeding them to any extent leads to carnage and high repair costs or that adhering to them ensure one avoids such results. The 6 foot rule is not really any different of a concept.

My experience has been that people generally give reasonable space, often erring towards more space than less where that choice is clearly possible.

Given that most people seem to get the arbitrary number is posted to give everyone some common standard to coordinate around without it being some type of exact numerical value of specific import.

As for those doing the messaging are also likely doing so based on filtered and skewed information -- just a variation on the central planner problem of non-omniscience.

Comment by jmh on AstraZeneca COVID Vaccine and blood clots · 2021-03-15T22:37:31.845Z · LW · GW

I probably could have worded things much better on that. No, to my knowledge no one has claimed or performed some type of correlation calculations on the data. The reference here was to one of the LW posts a little while back.

Comment by jmh on Covid 3/12: New CDC Guidelines Available · 2021-03-15T13:33:18.624Z · LW · GW

We're always putting others at some level of risk when we go out in public -- in fact in some cases we might say we're putting them at some risk if we don't for say people with medical and emergency skills that might just happen to be in the right place at the right time. So I think the question here is what is the marginal risk we're adding given the adjustments in behaviors nearly everyone has adopted while out in public.

It is also probably worth factoring in that for the grocery store it's also highly unlikely that we are now introducing (at least directly) any additional level of risk to those there than they are comfortable exposing themselves to. 

I do agree that there is an element of risks are clearly better understood from a system and not individual level analysis. But at this point, and for the example, I'm wonder just how much error and bias we introduce with the simple individual level argument compared to the complex system level argument.

Comment by jmh on A No-Nonsense Guide to Early Retirement · 2021-02-24T19:15:57.674Z · LW · GW

A few comments on aspects I think under/not noted.

  1. Always take advantage of any company matching program. If they have a good employee stock purchase plan that too can be free money. (But don't put all your eggs in the company basket!)
  2. People really need to think about what their spending will be during retirement. It will not be the same as during your working years. I think the comment about choosing where to live also factors in here.
  3. We don't really need to split our plans into working-retired in my opinion. For some (many?) maybe but choosing your career and who you work for or with should be considered. If you really enjoy what you do how is working really different from retiring? Or perhaps more relevant, how is working with 40+ years of experience and competence, and some of the perks that come with that, in an area and with a company you really enjoy? Moreover, negotiation around what flexibility one has, either hours or in locations is something to consider as one moves through their career as it relates to the retirement life they envision.

I think perhaps sometimes the retirement focus on the financial aspects only could miss some important aspects of that retirement as well as reduce the options set considered for accomplishing the more general goal of achieving those "golden years".

Comment by jmh on Media Bias · 2021-02-23T20:07:26.528Z · LW · GW

I've taken the view that generally we really don't have news as we did in "the old days" (which itself is a bit of a myth as going back farther than what one might call the golden age of journalism/reporting - 60s/70s era perhaps - I think we'd see the same type of outcomes.). Generally I take most news or media outlets to basically be about opinion that is hung on a few facts. Fits right in with the view on biases and incomplete information (selected or just incomplete).

I also somewhat see this as a case of nature abhorring a vacuum. When we started up with the 24/7 outlets and added the increased speed of transmitting information (and reduced costs) I think the industry ended up with way more slack for the actual new information generated per unit time. Something had to fill the gaps. I think that also drove a dynamic related to (self declared?) expert personalities and all the talking heads we find.

That said, there probably is good value in knowing or at least being a bit familiar with the current framing and meme that are dominant in any given topic space. So perhaps there is news but just new on a slightly different margin. 

Comment by jmh on Are we prepared for Solar Storms? · 2021-02-17T19:06:34.693Z · LW · GW

You might need to narrow you question down by clearly defining just what you mean by "prepared".

For example, we (most governments and international organizations) were not prepared to respond and protect people in general nor prepared with some fallback plan for  continuing needed economic and social activity during the event. We muddled though and in many cases individuals and individual organizations figured out what to do.

However, if we look at what happened when Trump got sick maybe government was prepared to perserve itself. The was a recent story about how he was actually much sicker than let on, almost to the point of putting him on a respirator. That was the report and I did not attempt to verify so.... If that was the case then clearly we have something that works wonders for the virus -- it's just not something the general public is being offered.

We might see the same with regards to any big electromagnetic event that causes sever damage to power grids and electronic things we depend so much on in our 21st Century lives. One might think that power to key government, military and research facilities will have a different experience than say, payment platforms, Amazon or Google processing data centers or even your local power provider or gas stations.

To me the big wakeup call here is less about what social institutions like government can do or could be expected to do and much more about everyone realizing the nature of the world we do live in. It's not safe, it's not kind and caring and in the end it is very important for everyone to take that into consideration as they live their own lives. While I am not a doom's dayer or survivalist I do think they get that aspect of living right. 

In other words, I think people in general have gotten very complacent about the risky and unpredictable nature of our world. Adjustments on that margin will probably make the world as a whole a bit more robust than calls for government or international actions -- not that such is not also needed but I think it only gets so far due to the inherent problems of that type of collective action.

Comment by jmh on Remember that to value something infinitely is usually to give it a finite dollar value · 2021-02-16T19:35:57.788Z · LW · GW

I'm a bit confused by "you" in the claim. If we're talking about individuals I'm not at all sure one must put a monetary value on something. That seems to suggest nominal values are more accurate than real, subjective personal values those monetary units represent.

 

In a more general setting, markets for instance, I think a stronger case can be made but for any given individual am not certain it would be required.

Broadening it out more, where multiple people are trying to work together to some ends I think would be the strongest case.

Comment by jmh on Your Cheerful Price · 2021-02-13T18:47:14.408Z · LW · GW

Willingness or ability? 

Comment by jmh on Making Vaccine · 2021-02-09T00:26:00.537Z · LW · GW

Doesn't this speak to your concern:

Spike 802-823cir: FSQ c LPDPSKPSKRSF c EDLLF ( Cys4, Cys17 disulfide)
IN TESTING, vaccine Generations 5, 6, 7, 8. 9
To preserve the loop structure present in the native conformation, we substituted cysteines for amino acids 4 (Ile>Cys) and 17 (Ile>Cys).

They perform the substitution to keep the shape that our immune system is looking for by recreating a disulfide bond that to form a loop with the same sequence the B-cells are targeting in the  virus.

While I agree their expression was "potentially beneficial" (or close) it seems clear to me the point was our B-cells are bonding to that loop and if there are not other aspect in the larger peptide that lead the cell to that site for bonding, construction the loop via the disulfide bond they introduce logically should result in triggering an immune response.

I'm not sure why they would need to provide some type of citation for this, much less that they would even have a source for this specific application.

Comment by jmh on The Story of the Reichstag · 2021-02-06T22:33:00.848Z · LW · GW

That somehow doesn't feel quite right -- something of a different class of things, unless you're saying that the general American perception now is we deserved the attack.

I would think perhaps the Vietnam War memorial might be a better case -- still not quite the same (I might even go as far as to say something of a mirror image).

Comment by jmh on Making Vaccine · 2021-02-04T20:17:17.691Z · LW · GW

Would an alternative (and possibly easier) approach be to simply take some additional doses -- it's my understanding that you really cannot make yourself sick with this type of vaccine -- over a week and then retest for antibodies?

If that still fails then consider figuring out how to perform your own mucus testing.

Comment by jmh on Making Vaccine · 2021-02-04T19:29:09.534Z · LW · GW

Thanks for the write up! I started to do this myself but quickly found I was a bit confused on how to even order the peptides. I was expecting to be able to search product lines but.... Not really possible. So...is the process to simply identify some suppliers (not hard to find with Google) give them the amino acid sequences in the instructions and ask for a quote? (Hit that initial speed bump and have not gotten back to looking for phone numbers or customer support chat windows.)

Just a thought. So this doesn't scale well for storage and shipping it sounds but production is pretty simply and materials seem to be fairly durable for storage (I don't think the peptides decay quickly). If so, couldn't the model be that a small lab at the many, many, many pharmacy (or at lest the big chains) stores make batches for the appointments they have scheduled. Given that the delivery method seem to be better (thanks for bringing that up -- was going to ask) and that should take out a lot of the supply chain bottlenecks we have been seeing I would think. (Or once the transition and supporting setup/infrastructure locally is done.)

The other question, having taken this is there any concern about being required later to also take one of the officially blessed vaccines. This might be even more important is you don't show the antibodies for some reason but have reacted to the vaccine. I don't think I completely read the radvac white paper but don't recall them having any section that might have spoken to that.

Again, great write up and contribution.

Comment by jmh on The World is Full of Wasted Motion · 2021-02-03T02:20:55.398Z · LW · GW

One potential implication seems to be that if there are things I need to get done and an 80% level of done is acceptable then I can save a lot of time for things I really need to get 100% done.

Comment by jmh on The 10,000-Hour Rule is a myth · 2021-02-03T02:01:36.624Z · LW · GW

I think you have two aspects for the first cut: flavoring and cooking -- maybe add visual presentation (which also is affected by cooking). Flavoring seem to be what a number here are talking about -- salt, acid/spiciness, sweetness, bitterness/sharpness. For that I think just study the tongue and taste buds. Cooking is all about controlling the application of heat. 

For the visual it will be balancing color and numbers (odd numbers seem to be more appealing than even numbers it seems), and a bit about shapes/patterns.

Comment by jmh on For those who advocate Anki · 2021-01-31T16:08:58.239Z · LW · GW

I'll have to look into abilities to view and slow the playback. I do watch a fair amount of Korean language shows. Not sure if Viki's interface includes that or if I can setup PotPlayer (VLC always causes some problem on my system that I've never figured out -- and with all the options never willing to invest too much effort in solving)  to stream the shows and take advantage of the suggestion.

Side note on watching the foreign shows. Since I'm also watching for entertainment value if generally have CC turned on. However, one things I have learned is I have to be careful about getting into the habit of reading and not really listening. When that happens I just hear English in my head and it starts drowning out the Korean! Turning CC off if I want to be in pure study/learning mode solves that but trying to be in that mode 24/7 is really hard on the brain ;-)

Thanks for the Lang-8 suggestion, will look into that as well.

Comment by jmh on For those who advocate Anki · 2021-01-31T15:41:16.536Z · LW · GW

I think I missed that so thanks for the link.

Comment by jmh on For those who advocate Anki · 2021-01-31T15:40:48.303Z · LW · GW

I'm glad it not just me! ;-) 

Just recently in a different setting someone claim Duolingo was not a great tool but I suspect that is dependent on the person. If she has not tried other learning sites she might take a look at TalkToMeInKorean.com -- lots of free materials, a large set of books they have published, lots of YouTube videos and very personable teachers that keep things relaxed and generally fun. That has been my primary tool (their books and free materials) but still oh so slowly progressing.

I've never used Anki and not sure it will actually improve my performance with Korean (I pretty much replicate the spaced repetition myself) but some of the uses you've put it to offer something of a "doh!" moment about a broader use that might make it very worth my getting. Really liked the idea related to the insect experience.

Comment by jmh on What is going on in the world? · 2021-01-19T17:02:03.319Z · LW · GW

Seems like a number of the items fall under a common theme/area. I wonder if focusing on them separately rather than perhaps seeing them as different context/representations of a common underlying source is best.

Basically, all the bits about failing governments, societies/cultures/institutions seem to be a rejection of the old "Private Vices, Public Virtues" idea and Smith's Invisible Hand metaphor. So perhaps the questions might be what's changed that make those types of superior outcomes from the individual actions that never aimed at such results no longer as effective.

Is there a common gear that is now broken or are these all really independent issues?

Comment by jmh on COVID-19: home stretch and fourth wave Q&A · 2021-01-10T03:15:23.095Z · LW · GW

I would say the ethical aspect comes from what you do after your effort to become infected. Since your intent is to become infected, your next action is to self-quarantine for (up to?) 14 days and test. Without imposing your quarantine after the infection attempt you are shifting some risks to third parties.

I assume your goal is to avoid the rush and get your immunity sooner rather than later and not wait until you are eligible for a vaccine. Perhaps an alternative would be to try the RadVac.org DIY vaccine and then test for antibodies. 

Comment by jmh on COVID-19: home stretch and fourth wave Q&A · 2021-01-10T03:03:21.775Z · LW · GW

Thanks and I was not thinking of the cumulative/trade off value of the assessment. While I'm sure your "over a year" time period was purely illustrative, I would wonder about just what time interval one might want to apply for this type of budgeting approach for consuming your mCs.

For instances, it seems more reasonable (to me) to say "I want to limit my maximum risk of infection to 1%". Then over some period of time I can sum up the mCs and make sure I keep that under the 10,000 budget defined. Over time then the early spend gets put back in the budget.

Any thoughts on that?

Comment by jmh on Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling · 2021-01-08T19:33:55.934Z · LW · GW

In your model you seem to keep the R value constant at the 1.5 ratio (S$1 cell).

I've seen calculations regarding where herd immunity kicking in based on adjusting R given the percentage of the population with immunity (already infected).  I was not completely sure how to try making that adjustment so took the % infected in row 2 as the base constant from which I then subtract from the other values in that column.

I didn't look at the full impact but calculate an Adjusted New. For the most part the timeline runs the same -- the adjustment seems to more one period earlier than your calculations. For example, the adjusted new peak is on May 28 where as the peak in your calculations occurs on June 4. 

The big difference though is in magnitude.  The peak infections for the new variant in your calculations was  7,325,028. In my adjusted new variant cases the peak was 5,370,409. That seems to be a significant difference.

I'm wondering if the adjustment I'm apply for some reason is not valid.

Comment by jmh on COVID-19: home stretch and fourth wave Q&A · 2021-01-08T17:15:36.115Z · LW · GW

I'm wondering why you find a 70 in a million chance of getting infected as "quite a bit"? Or am I completely misunderstanding the microCOVID?

Comment by jmh on Change My View: Incumbent religions still get too much leeway · 2021-01-08T16:57:49.587Z · LW · GW

One thing I struggle with in your post is the concept of religion. I don't see that you offer a clear definition of what you are getting at so I have to fill in a lot of area and then try to apply your thought to that and see if any conclusions follow. I'm failing miserably I think.

Adding, perhaps to clarify my own thinking on what is really driving my comment. The post seems to take a highly complex subject area that touches on a number of largely separate (separable?) aspects of life and invited discussion on all as if they are a rather simple subject area.

Perhaps an example to illustrate. If we consider religion as a social institution related to beliefs and faiths that cannot be empirically validated we get a good separation between religion and science. However we also know that religions historically have played a rather large role in scientific inquiry historically (though admittedly the reverse is true). Similarly, we can cast religion in a social structure of governance/government.  I don't think we can discuss religion at the level of the OP without clearly delineating which aspect of religion we're talking about.