Posts

Restricted Diet and Longevity, does eating pattern matter? 2020-06-01T21:28:19.010Z · score: 6 (2 votes)
Will the many protests throughout the USA prove to be good test cases for reopening? 2020-05-31T12:15:31.400Z · score: 9 (3 votes)
If bacteria gave us a tool for bio engineering, have viruses given us a delivery mechanism? 2020-05-20T22:31:08.099Z · score: 5 (1 votes)
Do any mammal species exhibit an immune response in some of the herd in response to the infection in other herd members? 2020-05-16T17:33:24.946Z · score: 5 (1 votes)
Will the world hit 10 million recorded cases of COVID-19? If so when? 2020-05-13T17:26:07.232Z · score: 7 (5 votes)
Settle Investment Trades Only Daily an improvement? True or False 2020-05-11T21:56:04.882Z · score: 5 (3 votes)
COVID-19 from a different angle 2020-05-04T17:58:02.100Z · score: 8 (3 votes)
Should we be reassessing the argument for globalization? 2020-04-26T13:52:40.126Z · score: 5 (1 votes)
Could city design impact spread of infections? 2020-04-22T14:57:54.511Z · score: 3 (2 votes)
COVID-19 and the US Elections 2020-04-08T18:25:20.425Z · score: 10 (4 votes)
What is going on in Singapore and the Philippines? 2020-04-06T11:27:25.268Z · score: 13 (6 votes)
What marginal returns now? 2020-03-30T23:12:03.853Z · score: 7 (2 votes)
Ideas on estimating personal risk of infection 2020-03-23T16:33:29.442Z · score: 5 (1 votes)
North Korea and COVID-19 2020-03-19T15:51:48.428Z · score: 7 (2 votes)
When will total cases in the EU surpass that of China? 2020-03-17T12:34:32.980Z · score: 7 (2 votes)
What might be learned from the COVID-19 buying patterns? 2020-03-15T02:58:26.078Z · score: 6 (4 votes)
Best time to take supplements? 2020-03-13T15:11:40.293Z · score: 5 (1 votes)
Dealing with the left overs: COVID-19 2020-03-05T14:10:02.299Z · score: 8 (3 votes)
To mask or not mask 2020-03-04T15:55:04.646Z · score: 22 (7 votes)
Did everyone miss the big thing about your phone? 2020-03-04T13:35:15.495Z · score: 22 (8 votes)
Is there a better way to define groups for COVID-19 impact? 2020-03-04T13:24:51.221Z · score: 11 (4 votes)
SARS, MERS and COVID-19 2020-03-01T20:53:06.459Z · score: 7 (3 votes)
Will the current COVID-19 outbreak increase the use of block-chain in supply chain management globally? 2020-02-28T14:53:15.777Z · score: 4 (1 votes)
Literature regarding epidemics and political stability? 2020-02-24T13:21:50.937Z · score: 8 (3 votes)
Making Sense of Coronavirus Stats 2020-02-20T15:12:51.292Z · score: 23 (9 votes)
It "wanted" ... 2020-02-15T20:52:07.094Z · score: 4 (1 votes)
Source of Karma 2020-02-09T14:13:30.650Z · score: 4 (1 votes)
Are the bad epistemic conditions global? 2020-01-25T23:31:21.283Z · score: 18 (4 votes)
AI Alignment, Constraints, Control, Incentives or Partnership? 2019-12-31T13:42:56.471Z · score: 6 (2 votes)
Double Cruz and Verification of Claims 2019-11-21T13:37:57.368Z · score: 6 (2 votes)
Current Law Proposed to allow competition in Social Media 2019-10-23T13:13:32.581Z · score: 2 (3 votes)
Does human choice have to be transitive in order to be rational/consistent? 2019-08-11T01:49:23.967Z · score: 9 (6 votes)
Would refining the question a bit be better in terms of getting to answers? 2019-08-01T16:25:32.549Z · score: 4 (2 votes)
Another case of "common sense" not being common? 2019-07-31T17:15:40.674Z · score: 6 (4 votes)
Learning Over Time for AI and Humans and Rationality 2019-06-13T13:23:58.639Z · score: 5 (2 votes)

Comments

Comment by jmh on Was a PhD necessary to solve outstanding math problems? · 2020-07-11T01:34:57.545Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

No clue if they might fit well with your thinking or if it is even common, but where would you put the case where the person has a Ph.D. but in a different field from their main study?

Would that fit better with the non credentialed case? I would like to think so but perhaps just having the paper gets you into the club.

Comment by jmh on (answered: yes) Has anyone written up a consideration of Downs's "Paradox of Voting" from the perspective of MIRI-ish decision theories (UDT, FDT, or even just EDT)? · 2020-07-07T00:16:37.337Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Not sure where of if this fits into your thought or not. In many was I see both the paradox and many of the attempts to explain it may well stem from incorrectly specifying the question. The argument is that the payoff from voting for any given person is lower than the costs incurred so why vote?

However, since people clearly do vote isn't the better question to ask: what did we miss in specifying the equation that results in the implication all these people are irrational and imposing costs on themselves?

In other words, rather than accepting the claimed paradox why not just take the empirical observation and then look for the underlying explanation. Would a good scientist ever talk about the paradox of flight once observed?

Comment by jmh on Second Wave Covid Deaths? · 2020-07-05T15:32:21.926Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I suspect a couple of things might be worth considering, but I'm not the expert here either so take everything with the view I am speculating/thinking aloud not stating any findings.

I don't think testing will tend to lower the CFR as that testing will move things towards the real IFR rather than the CFR. This probably related to point 1 & 2 above.

I think the 10-12 days from the old data to say we see movement in the death data due to the new cases probably has some type of skew in it, the older the data the more likely it will be complete. That should be driven by the the death reporting distribution (and perhaps even corrections). The closer the old data gets to the new threshold of new deaths it should under report due to the lag. Perhaps we need to look at the distribution of reported deaths over that 8+ week period before trying to assess the results after the 10-12 days. I'm not sure if that is what you are saying in point 3.

Comment by jmh on High Stock Prices Make Sense Right Now · 2020-07-05T15:08:58.293Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Do you make any adjustment on the PE evaluation, particularly for the top 4, in light of all the ways reported earning can be manipulated. I have not looked but would you have the same list if looking at things from a revenue based valuation or a free cash flow valuation?

Comment by jmh on Second Wave Covid Deaths? · 2020-07-03T15:11:49.250Z · score: 9 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Small addition on:

If there was a 7 day lag, we'd expect to see a 20% increase in deaths by from May 31 to June 28. Eyeballing the google deaths data things look basically flat. So I guess that means a drop of ~20% in fatality rate over that month.

The CDC site says the lag on reporting deaths is between 2 and 8 weeks -- and can be longer.

Comment by jmh on Second Wave Covid Deaths? · 2020-07-03T00:00:20.867Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Might be that deaths are being classified a bit differently now too. Just looking at https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6/data for the national level numbers/trend for "Symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified (R00-R99)" look different from last year. I also heard someone claim that something of a spike in pneumonia deaths is happening but didn't really see that in the data.

But I would also think some marginal improvement in treating patients and keeping them alive has occurred as well.

Comment by jmh on Half-Baked Products and Idea Kernels · 2020-06-25T16:07:53.563Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

That was the experience I had in the last corp I worked for. They traditionally were waterfall and trying to move towards agile. As T3t notes below, it's best not to think of things as either or (and I suspect you are not suggesting such).

A couple of related thought come to mind though. One clearly is the cost of the bug and effort to fix -- I don't think all environments support ease of update to code base or code modules. Additionally, in different settings having something go wrong for 30 minutes might be a minor inconvenience (I'll do something else this morning and come back this afternoon) while in other cases you might be talking about billions in damage/loses or even lives lost.

There is also something of a culture aspect here. Organizations and the staff who lived and breathed waterfall have a lot of business processes & procedures and human thought process in place that don't really support agile, and vise versa.

However, I think the approach in the OP is fully compatible with either waterfall or agile development. But it might actually be more valuable to the former. Might also generalize pretty well into things like, say, vacation planning????

Comment by jmh on When is it Wrong to Click on a Cow? · 2020-06-22T20:07:01.920Z · score: 5 (4 votes) · LW · GW

What if we rephrased the question as "When is it okay to be bored?"

The way the post seems to frame the setting is that these three are doing things in a largely nonsocial setting. None are overtly engaging in some activities that imply some form of social interaction. As such, if we consider that aspect and then pose the alternative "go home and stare at the wall" does that suggest any additional takes on how to assess the situations?

Comment by jmh on Why do all out attacks actually work? · 2020-06-13T12:45:33.526Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

But why doesn't the all out attack work against status?

This model, when we're only talking about status, seems like another reflection of the "I can't" view so no commitment to make the effort is made.

I assume your "slap down" is not merely those with status ridiculing the idea attempting to point out flaws in the theory or design but rather that of applying both economic, political and perhaps even raw force to stop you. In that case the issue doesn't seem to be status (though clearly that might indicate a level or location of risk). It issue is the ability of others with an interest in stopping you in achieving that goal. Seems to me that decision process there would be performing a calculation on a different set of inputs than status.

Comment by jmh on Self-Predicting Markets · 2020-06-11T13:01:10.899Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

One additional point that should matter. The valuation is not merely Hertz as an enterprise but the value of Hertz's assets to other market players. If Hertz is gone then the market equilibrium shifts for all the other rental companies. What is the value of merger (friendly or not)?

Comment by jmh on We've built Connected Papers - a visual tool for researchers to find and explore academic papers · 2020-06-09T13:33:42.790Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I also like the tool and expect to use it at times so thanks for building and sharing.

I have to also share the performance related experience -- yesterday I had several attempts return the system overloaded response.

This morning my test looks to be progressing 45% after about 10 minutes. I suspect that your message there might be a bit optimistic. If generating the results is expected to take more than a few minutes allow some form of notification once the graph has been complete.

Comment by jmh on Most reliable news sources? · 2020-06-07T00:03:04.038Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I lack a good answer for you. I find all the suggested sources okay and read them myself in most cases (FT and Economists no but used to long ago).

I also read South Morning China Post and Al Jazeera (and some Korean papers) for non western perspectives. I keep saying I should add some of the continental European papers.

Occasionally I will check out something from Russia and some of the party mainland China papers as well as Japanese.

I look at a couple of Philippine papers as well for personal reasons and sometimes get a new insight to a larger theme.

I don't think any are unbiased and non really seem to try to be completely objective. That is why I would suggest reading several version of the same story. Basically, it's the application of the old saying, your side, my side and somewhere in between is the truth.

Comment by jmh on Russian x-risks newsletter spring 2020 · 2020-06-04T16:30:47.403Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Isn't the claim about using first use of nukes as defense old news? I want to say Putin made similar statements at least a year ago.

I've not looked into the details here so perhaps there has been a shift in just how they would be used.

Comment by jmh on Restricted Diet and Longevity, does eating pattern matter? · 2020-06-03T23:25:39.400Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks and it is a good thing to keep in mind.

Got some hints there at least ;-)

Comment by jmh on Restricted Diet and Longevity, does eating pattern matter? · 2020-06-03T23:15:51.500Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks.

That is largely what I'm getting from Sinclair's Lifespan. What it seems to do, if I'm following his claim, is the restricted diet puts the body in a stressed mode (not malnourished state, that is to be avoided). The switches on come cellular activity that shift energy from cell division to cell maintenance and cleans up a lot of the garbage (malformed and miscoded proteins).

He also suggests that the other thing to diet wise it reduce the intake of some of the essential amino acids. We get too much of those and they are all associated with activating an enzyme that promotes the cellular division activities and away from the garbage collection and maintenance work.

I had not gotten to this point when asking the question but the book also goes on to say that a lot of different structures to the diet, each meal lite, fast a day a week or so, skip meals... all seem to function the same. Not surprising as all put us in a stressed mode and then the cell functions react. But he was not sure if some are perhaps better than others.

I don't know if he has identified a gear, or or the as the book seems to suggest, for aging but interesting so far.

Comment by jmh on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-03T22:02:51.898Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
If we think Covid-19 deaths are bad, well, they look a lot like deaths from ‘natural causes.’ Yet those are considered good and right and proper, and not like the horror that they are. We’re all going to die.

Sounds a bit like Sinclair in his book with LaPlante, Lifespan. We should be looking at aging as a disease, not a natural outcome of life.

With regard to the whole overpopulation fear or bored with living it is worth noting that solving aging doesn't seem to be achieving immortality - at least not anytime soon I sounds. More about increasing the quality of life post 50 or so with perhaps an extra 10 to 30 years. Whether or not that extra time or the less aged middle year would really result in a significant increase in population I'm not sure. Others might have a good idea on how to model that.

Comment by jmh on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-03T21:43:54.745Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I've seen this claim that the next time will be worse that this one a few times now (not limiting to LW).

I'm curious about the claim. Is that related to some underlying model or some biologic or virologic reason. Is the claim based on the view the human population will continue growing so population density increases, even if density increase that social interaction will increase relative to today? Something else?

Comment by jmh on Predicted Land Value Tax: a better tax than an unimproved land value tax · 2020-05-27T21:06:09.207Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Have you even looked into Henry George's Land Value Tax theory, or the critiques made of that theory? If not might be worth skimming or checking out the cliff notes or other summary.

Also, I'm not entirely sure I understand the problem being solved. Is this about a more accurate or efficient taxing?

Comment by jmh on Baking is Not a Ritual · 2020-05-26T19:32:23.883Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Here is a recipe that might be helpful, as either a ritual approach or by looking at the different ingredients and then at what they might be doing chemically and structurally.

Egg whites are proteins and so are gluten in wheat and both will provide some degree or structural rigidity.

Since we don't know your recipe I would make a rather wild guess that perhaps the use of cream of tartar. This suggests "A pinch of cream of tartar also helps stabilize whipped cream to prevent it from deflating", so perhaps as well as functioning as a leavening agent with the baking soda it is also adding some strength.

Here is one more link. A quick scan of some sections suggests you won't need a chemistry background but it does talk about how the ingredients work at the level. For instance, I never new salt worked to act as a strengthener for gluten during baking.

Comment by jmh on Baking is Not a Ritual · 2020-05-26T15:37:10.066Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Put a little differently, there is a reason why we have Betty Crocker cake mixes and Aunt Jamima or Bisquick pancake mixes for people. It provides a ritual they can blindly follow and get repeatedly good results.

However, it they try deviating from the ritual (the defined recipes on the box) the results will start getting unpredictable with the underlying knowledge. In worst case scenarios (not sure baking gets us there but perhaps) people start thinking the world in that area is just random outcomes or is unpredictable.

Comment by jmh on Baking is Not a Ritual · 2020-05-26T15:20:32.848Z · score: 4 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, I would say baking is the most complicated form of cooking to understand because it is chemically the most complex.

I think the general point of the OP is you cannot easily violate the ritual (ad lib with the recipe in baking). I suspect most people don't grasp the difference between baking and other cooking (which is also rather chemical reaction driven). I would suggest the different is widths of the error bands. Baking has really narrow bands, other cooking has relatively wide ones.

I think the post gets to a much deeper question. Just when should someone be a ritual follower and when is that not so important. I think part of that answer related to the error band concept. It also related to knowledge of the gears.

Comment by jmh on The Oil Crisis of 1973 · 2020-05-25T22:50:03.656Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW
this recession will be different, because (among other things) we will simultaneously have a labor shortage and a lot of people out of work. That’s really weird, and there’s almost no historical precedent

Labor shortage and recession. It strikes me that perhaps WWII offers a similar setting. Massive labor shortage since many men were off fighting. A recession setting by a lot of metrics from a consumer demand and supply perspective -- so lots of rationing and the like.

Maybe some insights from analysis of those times?

Comment by jmh on Highlights of Comparative and Evolutionary Aging · 2020-05-23T16:30:05.744Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Probably not as relevant to this specific post as the general sequence on aging but have you seen and read Lifespan by Sinclair & LaPlante? If so what is your assessment. I've just started reading.

Comment by jmh on The Oil Crisis of 1973 · 2020-05-23T16:25:05.062Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I am pretty sure that the price of all goods started to fall relative to gold after the USA moved to a pure fiat money regime. If so do the gold price of oil itself informative or should one look to the relative price of oil (in what ever money units) to other goods or baskets of other goods.

Put a bit different, how was oil performing in the inflationary world?

Comment by jmh on What are objects that have made your life better? · 2020-05-22T00:42:50.956Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
Imported japanese toothpaste that has hydroxyapatite. It's under patent dispute in the USA. Remineralizes teeth.

+ 1 on this one. Hope the availability does not disappear. But it also seems hydroxypatite is available on its own so one might be able to just add to any toothpaste.

Comment by jmh on If bacteria gave us a tool for bio engineering, have viruses given us a delivery mechanism? · 2020-05-21T14:29:38.647Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks. Interesting. Seems that the term I want is "viral vector".

Clearly some bugs still to work out (bad pun, sorry) but seems like a very promising approach though I think eventually the fix should be something that is also present in off-spring (which currently is probably illegal so and will change the risk assessment needed)

Comment by jmh on Settle Investment Trades Only Daily an improvement? True or False · 2020-05-21T13:55:22.129Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

We'd have to look into the specific rules here. The only thing I do know is limit orders trade before market orders do and orders are time stamped. In other words, the current institutional structure is more about managing order flow than establishing the clearing price when supply and demand are considered in the larger context -- such as buyers and sellers who want to participate today but will be sending the orders at much different times during the period the market is open.

Draw a simply Supply and Demand picture, and assume those curves do represent the true price quantities of the market participants that exist during the given period. The intersections would then be the standard economic model clearing prices. Let those curves represent one day.

Currently, under the order flow regime, the when ever the orders come in at attempt to find a matching order on the other side occurs. But that would allow a supplier that has a price in the supply curve that is above the intersection to be pairs with buyer on the demand curve that is at or above the ask price.

The difference between the transaction price and that implied market clearing price when considering the days actual supply and demand characteristics seems to represent the loss of value the buyer would have saved if they could have bought at the theoretical market clearing price, which is only known when the day closes. This also represents a transfer to the seller with the above market price. This seller, on some pretty standard market logic, really should not have been able to get that trade as the price asked was too high.

Changing the rule about matching trades (supply and demand) at the end of the day rather than as the orders come in prevents that type of inefficient pairing of buyer and seller.

To my knowledge that is what happens in the morning for all trades, and why sometimes when unusual events occur the opening for a security is delayed while the market or market makers try to figure out just where the open clearing price really is.

Large institutional and large investors will also use some slightly different orders and pay something or an weighted average price for the shares they sell on a give day. This appears similar to my suggestion and I would suggest lends support to the underlying thought.

You are correct that the duration of the period might matter and a day may not be the right one. I picked that because generally information is fairly consistent over a day so revision to orders places should me small.

Comment by jmh on Signaling: Why People Have Conversations · 2020-05-20T16:49:55.938Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
People like talking more than listening. If we participated in conversations primarily to gain information, then you’d expect people to want to listen more than they speak. People almost always show the opposite behaviour.

This seems to shift the line a bit. If the goal of conversations exchange of information I don't think we can really say who will do the most talking so should not try to draw any conclusion about conversation as info exchange based on people liking to talk more than listen. (It is perhaps interesting that is seems a lot of communication theory agrees that people who don't actively listen tend not to be good at communication or conversation.) That said, I suspect one might use the signaling view to explain why more want to talk than listen. Knowledge is power. Power is status. People like status. Therefore people want to talk more than listen.

But that behavior is fully consistent with the idea conversation is largely about info exchange.

I did enjoy reading and appreciate that your wrote up your thoughts and summaries from reading the book. So don't take my selecting one point to question as a signal otherwise ;-)

Comment by jmh on A Problem With Patternism · 2020-05-20T16:23:17.868Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

This seems related to the post on Pointing to a flower. Do you seem the two lines of thinking/inquiry as complementary?

Comment by jmh on Isn't Tesla stock highly undervalued? · 2020-05-19T02:43:14.838Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
Their 5+ year lead in autonomous driving is, by itself, a really exciting thing to bet on

I"m not exactly how to assess this but probably worth mentioning that Buick, GM and Ford were conducting testing for self driving cars back in the early 1990s. To be sure, they were a lot different and how the entire system would need to come together to be successful is different.

However, it is also not clear, to me at least, that the best next generation small vehicle transportation system will simply be the same network of roads and control systems with "smart" cars. In other words, Tesla may well be a great stepping stone to the next level of transportation but not really where that is going and perhaps not even positioning it well for a better system/infrastructure setting.

Exciting yes but I think history has a pretty good number or first innovators that ended up getting sidelined for various reasons -- all I suspect relating to network type effects as they relate to the larger economic nexus in which they need to fit.

Comment by jmh on Extracting Value from Inadequate Equilibria · 2020-05-18T23:03:36.488Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I wonder if some of the discussion in the posts related to Moral Mazes might offer any insights.

Comment by jmh on What are your greatest one-shot life improvements? · 2020-05-16T17:49:17.180Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

It really is surprising just how much you can get from a very little amount of time. When I quit smoking (and even some of the times I unsuccessfully tried) one simple trick I used when I felt the urge was to simply say "I'll go in 5 minutes" and resume whatever I was doing.

Every single time it was 30 minutes, an hour, a couple of hours later that the next urge for a smoke returned. Moreover, I never really felt I was waiting in anticipation of that 5 minutes to expire.

Now, I don't think that is what ultimately accomplished the quitting but it did address one of the problems that will lead to not quitting.

Comment by jmh on Settle Investment Trades Only Daily an improvement? True or False · 2020-05-16T12:48:54.419Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I don't understand either of these points.

Stop-loss is merely a special form of limit price and would certainly fit into a end of day clearing/settlement process for supply and demand. Here I don't see where the multiple clearing prices can emerge due to stop-loss orders but not from other limit orders. And, even if there is a spread between the limit bid/offers that might produce a gap, so indeterminate price in that range, it would be rare where the market price orders were insufficient to close the gap.

The fact that the end of day price might be above or below the price you will trade at is not different if it's end of day only or tick-by-tick. If no one was willing to sell at your bid or buy at your offer you are not part of the market in that period of time. That is now we think markets should work. The concern here seems related to my next paragraph.

One thing that has motivated my musing here is the market argument about maximizing surplus generated by markets -- the area between the supply and demand curves. End of day trading allows those two curves to be known and match the trades that allows that maximum surplus to emerge. Random trades as they show up throughout the day does not. Some of the trades my well be pure transfers generating zero surplus.

I do think it's fair to ask is the lost of surplus is meaningful and I'm not 100% sure. But if not then there is a lot of welfare economics that needs to be rethought and a certain amount of market philosophy to reconsider. Is a society just as well of under the standard free market outcome with producer and consumer surplus as it is under a regime of perfect price discrimination (i.e., only producer surplus)?

Comment by jmh on The EMH Aten't Dead · 2020-05-16T12:21:56.102Z · score: 6 (5 votes) · LW · GW

I'm pretty sure there is an entire literature (but cannot know think of the term) regarding the problem if everyone were to be index investors. Basically, if no one is investing in the underlying assets, in the extreme, we don't get pricing for those assets and ultimately cannot even price the indexes well. In short, the market implodes on itself without all those individual market interactions.

Comment by jmh on The EMH Aten't Dead · 2020-05-16T03:16:07.154Z · score: 11 (6 votes) · LW · GW

I enjoyed both the perspective and the tone of the post. Up voted.

Two, probably not to deep thoughts.

First, years ago I had a discussion with some day traders and one was talking about the SPY EFT He mentioned that the fund owners actually did not invest in all 500 equities but only in the top performing ones (no idea what the criteria was on that). The argument was largely they could not make money running the fund if the invested in both the winning and losing stocks.

Second, and it relates to the first, one of the other things (different time) that was pointed out was "market" is a problematic terms. Each asset that is traded has a market and that is not the same as "the market". I think this tends to be something of a problem area for people when the issue of EMH is in question. Many (most) do okay in thinking about a market in APPL (supply and demand, buyers/sellers, bids and offers) we all get that. But "the market" is a much more complicated (even chaotic) animal. At a high level most also get general portfolio theory but probably could not put a customized plan in place for their personal portfolio. What I suspect happens here, with regard to EMH, is a bit like the fallacy of composition error you get in logic. It's not clear to me exactly how easy it really is to sum up the many demand and supply functions for each individual asset and then suggest any aggregate price or return to "the market".

EMH (or at least most of the discussion here and everywhere else I've seen) doesn't seem to make any distinction between the asset's market and the general market (much less the global market).

Comment by jmh on Will the world hit 10 million recorded cases of COVID-19? If so when? · 2020-05-13T21:08:48.348Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yes. Should have just written the equation y = mX + b and filled in some blanks.

At that m=~100000 (division of the numbers says 77,7777.78) doubles from 4 million in about 52 more days. Silly mistake to look at the 45 days to get an 8 fold increase and then take the implied rate of increase as useful. If it was doubling at some rate it's not linear!

Seems sometimes I need to not think out loud to actually start thinking....

Comment by jmh on 162 benefits of coronavirus · 2020-05-13T13:32:07.499Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I think what might add a great deal of value to a post like this -- and I do like the idea of looking at both sliver lining aspects and what can be learned -- would be to compare the suggestions to what actually is supported historically. Did these prior events produce the type of results claimed/hoped? If not perhaps some thoughts on why not.

Also, perhaps some probability/likelihood estimates and level of confidence (however soft they might be) might be good too.

For instance, preparedness for future pandemics seems rather weak to me. Certainly in something came up maybe 5 years after we have this one figured out perhaps. But we've seen a lot of epidemics and some pandemics in recent history but still pretty much everyone got things pretty bad -- I will give Taiwan a good mark, Singapore and South Korea seem to have done well at the outset but are running into problems. China most definitely did not do well in my opinion on a number of counts. The USA and EU -- well might be hard to make a case for even a average grade. Russia? Iran or middle east in general? South America (have not been paying any attention there). Africa?

If we've really learned much from the past it doesn't seem like much to me. However, that might be a very unfair assessment. I'm not really sure what counter-factual outcome I should be comparing the reality against and that will matter a lot.

Comment by jmh on What marginal returns now? · 2020-05-12T23:58:03.452Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I was thinking more along the lines opportunity cost for the marginal efforts, are they perhaps actually greater than the output produced.

I suppose that can be seen as something other than a form of marginal return so could have been clearer.

Comment by jmh on Settle Investment Trades Only Daily an improvement? True or False · 2020-05-12T02:13:39.005Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Well pricing can be assessed though out the day, and reassessed as well via the submitted bids and offers. The change his is about the actual price the security trade at. In this approach everyone selling or buying on a given day gets the same price (very much like the standard economic auctioneer model).

While I would be more interested in hearing what thoughts others might have, one though might be that such an approach eliminates a bunch of little welfare loss triangles that are the result of the individual trades occurring throughout the day by requiring the day's supply and demand curves to be fully reveled.

Comment by jmh on Settle Investment Trades Only Daily an improvement? True or False · 2020-05-12T02:03:08.870Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Edited. Though perhaps just should have put the question in the title and no body.

Comment by jmh on Zoom Technologies, Inc. vs. the Efficient Markets Hypothesis · 2020-05-12T01:59:20.779Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Agree. I actually deleted an earlier version of the comment that offered some thoughts on the problem of information in the evaluation of EMH. But that quickly good too complicated for the little though I was ready to apply.

Comment by jmh on Zoom Technologies, Inc. vs. the Efficient Markets Hypothesis · 2020-05-11T21:37:45.801Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I think there are two areas that need to be included in the discussion here.

1) EMH as a static equilibrium concept and as a dynamic equilibrating process. I don't think EMH comes out too great in either setting but still do think that the hypothesis is largely true: information matters, is used and is largely reflected in the prices as it become more generally know (private information allows alpha but also has controls on its use and typically those with it cannot take full advantage due to resource limitations).

2) What do market prices really reflect? It is not really the enterprise value directly, though clearly that will be related, but more about the relative supply and demand for the shares at the margin. All sorts of think affect that marginal pricing -- I have to sell something to do something else that is a better alternative so that sale is my opportunity cost -- that has little to do with the underlying enterprise pricing question or the information related to that question.

Comment by jmh on COVID-19 from a different angle · 2020-05-05T12:50:34.777Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Indeed. Missed the 1 to 8 weeks... bit.

Comment by jmh on COVID-19 from a different angle · 2020-05-04T21:53:58.951Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks, very helpful.

The CDC data is interesting, unless the numbers are really lagged looks like the number of expected deaths dropped of a cliff. Will be interesting to what that over the next couple of weeks.

Comment by jmh on Value of building an online "knowledge web" · 2020-05-04T02:38:31.791Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

A while back Roam was discussed a bit in https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BHp82PvqCDayFpefg/implementing-an-idea-management-system

Not sure if you saw that or not.

Comment by jmh on Book Review: Narconomics · 2020-05-04T02:18:14.586Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

While not quite the situation you suggest one might argue that the north east (DC, Phili, NY, Boston...) were buying from the Tenn State Police with its policy of letting the trucks though for the east bound traffic but stopping the west bound traffic to seize the cash.

Comment by jmh on What is the safe in-person distance for COVID-19? · 2020-05-01T15:21:52.012Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

This suggests to me that we don't just want to consider distance. Time and speed are both elements here too. I think that is actually something people can understand intuitively if they get some basic information. Most people are not challenged with knowing where they need to be to catch the fly ball. Here they just need to have a reasonable sense of where not to be.

So the message really isn't X distance but several factors that can include a distance metric.

However, the other aspect here is not safe (pick you metric) versus not safe. It's about level or risk and what that implies about actions to take. This could be anything from what types of PPE one uses to thinks like everyone adopting inside versus outside clothing (a bit like biohazard suits in those labs but probably more like a mechanic's overalls) and increased use of "mud rooms" in housing.

Comment by jmh on What is the safe in-person distance for COVID-19? · 2020-05-01T15:04:41.410Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I suspect the inside issue is something that will eventually have to be addresses via ventilation and filtration (as in planes) and attention to just how the air flows seems important here. That probably doesn't get us back to distances pre-COVID-19 but at least gets to some new workable normal. (Unless we're giving up direct social interactions and go to pure virtual reality solutions).

Outside might still need some work I think. If you're thinking not overly crowded settings not nearly as much to worry about. However, things like open air markets, rallies, large spectator sporting events outside or even tightly packed streets may still be a bit problematic. I think a lot there will depend on infection density at that point. I would expect some type of cloud to still emerge from the crowd of people that may remain localized in a lot of weather settings.

Comment by jmh on Why anything that can be for-profit, should be · 2020-05-01T14:36:19.948Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Basing this response just on this exchange and information provide here.

I'm not sure one can say AZ is not setting up with profits in mind nor is it clear to me their expectations on total profit would be lower they way they are versus the suggestion made about reinvesting profits. How do we go about making that assessment and comparison since I don't think one can simply pick a side and claim victory.

One way of looking at the current, temporary "non-profit" approach could be seen as an investment in a customer base that will be there when the factories are build and provide a good demand volume to support the factory output at levels that provide greater profits. If they seek profits now, but promise to invest in the factories (which they are going to do anyhow) they are both competing for customers today and tomorrow. Trying to establish a loyal customer base now at the start of things doesn't seem like a profit minimizing strategy to me.

Comment by jmh on [Link] COVID-19 causing deadly blood clots in younger people · 2020-04-29T17:57:57.202Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

What I was really wondering about was does the particular strain of the virus matter here. My understanding is there are several different strains and what is primarily in the USA is not what was primarily in China or Europe.

Now that might just be poor news reporting on the facts as I'm not seem anything about -A, -B, -C versions.