Interesting predictions on manifold.markets

post by jmh · 2022-10-01T16:09:46.005Z · LW · GW · 1 comment

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I noticed two separate predictions on manifold.markets related to Xi and Xi & Putin remaining at the top of their governments.

Xi and Putin at 93% and Xi at 95%.

 

What's interesting, and I wonder if it makes sense, is that together these suggest people think Putin is more secure in his future than Xi.

Curious about other's take on this.

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comment by Dagon · 2022-10-01T16:34:49.172Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I suspect you shouldn't attribute much precision to Manifold, especially for things under 10% or so (or over 90%, same thing).  Play-money and thinly traded questions make for a pretty weak consensus.