What's your probability that the concept of probability makes sense?

post by Mati_Roy (MathieuRoy) · 2021-05-22T21:53:31.766Z · LW · GW · 6 comments

This is a question post.

^_^

Answers

answer by ike · 2021-05-23T00:42:13.151Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

No

answer by GuySrinivasan · 2021-05-22T22:20:22.838Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Which concept of probability? :D

Mine is ~1.0, just like my probability that Newton's Laws make sense. 

answer by Charlie Steiner · 2021-05-22T23:14:54.222Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

18 nines maybe?

answer by Dagon · 2021-05-23T03:41:53.357Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Since the concept is one of subjective expectation/prediction, and "makes sense" is ALSO subjective evaluation, it's currently 1.0 - it makes sense to me.  I may someday change enough that it doesn't make sense, but you didn't ask my probability of whether it'll continue to make sense, you only asked about now.

6 comments

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comment by emanuele ascani (emanuele-ascani) · 2021-06-15T18:09:42.272Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I'm disappointed by the downvotes and by the answers. I don't see any problem with this question, and the concept it points at is useful to think about.

comment by shminux · 2021-05-23T01:31:02.270Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Probability is a useful self-consistent model, and so it better be 100% where applicable.