What's your probability that the concept of probability makes sense?

post by Mati_Roy (MathieuRoy) · 2021-05-22T21:53:31.766Z · LW · GW · 6 comments

This is a question post.



answer by ike · 2021-05-23T00:42:13.151Z · LW(p) · GW(p)


answer by GuySrinivasan · 2021-05-22T22:20:22.838Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Which concept of probability? :D

Mine is ~1.0, just like my probability that Newton's Laws make sense. 

answer by Charlie Steiner · 2021-05-22T23:14:54.222Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

18 nines maybe?

answer by Dagon · 2021-05-23T03:41:53.357Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Since the concept is one of subjective expectation/prediction, and "makes sense" is ALSO subjective evaluation, it's currently 1.0 - it makes sense to me.  I may someday change enough that it doesn't make sense, but you didn't ask my probability of whether it'll continue to make sense, you only asked about now.


Comments sorted by top scores.

comment by emanuele ascani (emanuele-ascani) · 2021-06-15T18:09:42.272Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I'm disappointed by the downvotes and by the answers. I don't see any problem with this question, and the concept it points at is useful to think about.

comment by shminux · 2021-05-23T01:31:02.270Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Probability is a useful self-consistent model, and so it better be 100% where applicable.