Orange County ACX/LW in the Park

Hello folks! 

I am glad to announce the second of a continuing series of Orange County ACX/LW meetups. Meeting this Saturday and most Saturdays. Note this week, we will meet at 3:30, not 2. The first meeting was great, and I hope to see many of you at this one. Based on the first meeting, I chose two popular topics to prompt future conversation and activities. 

 

Saturday, 8/27/22, 3:30 pm

1900 Port Carlow Place, Newport Beach, 92660

The Picnic tables outside the community clubhouse

33.6173166789459, -117.85885652037152
https://goo.gl/maps/WmzxQhBM2vdpJvz39

Plus code 8554J48R+WFJ

Contact me, Michael, at michaelmichalchik+acxlw@gmail.com with questions or requests.

This week it will be at 3:30 (usually 2:00) to avoid a conflict with an online LW meetup

Activities (all activities are optional)

A) Two conversation starter topics this week will be. (readings at the end)

1) Forecasting and predicting the future 
2) Psychedelics.

B) We will also have the card game Predictably Irrational. Feel free to bring your own favorite games or distractions.

C) There will be opportunities to go for a walk and talk about an hour after the meeting starts and use some gas barbeques if anyone wants to grill something. There are two easy-access mini-malls nearby with takeout hot food available. 

D) Share a surprise! Tell the group about something that happened that was unexpected or changed the way you look at the universe.

E) Make a prediction and give a probability and end condition.

F) Contribute ideas to the future direction of the group. Topics, types of meetings, activities, etc…




Conversation Starter Readings:
Suggested readings for this week are these summaries. These readings are optional, but if you do them, think about what you find interesting, surprising, useful, questionable, vexing, or exciting.  

1) Prediction 

Superforcasting is a review of experiments done about how well various types of experts do in predicting the future. Generalists tend to do better than specialists in prediction, but why? Groups tend to do better than individuals, but are there ways to improve the performance of groups even further? How can you train yourself to be better at prediction? How can you help others?

 

https://howdo.com/book-summaries/superforecasting-summary-and-review/

Or The Harvard business review application to business

https://hbr.org/2016/05/superforecasting-how-to-upgrade-your-companys-judgment

Or the ACX Review

https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/04/book-review-superforecasting/

And this excerpt from Future Babble is a more critical look at prediction science.

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/books/review/excerpt-future-babble-by-dan-gardner.html

 

For psychedelics:

The tale of two receptors is an interesting speculation as to the underlying pharmacology of psychedelics. Hypothesizing that serotonin can both help us cope with the distress of a bad situation and help us look for creative ideas out of the old mental habits that can keep us trapped in a bad situation. Conventional antidepressants and atypical antipsychotics operate on the acceptance system, while psychedelics operate on the later, lateral thinking. Is this perspective useful? Oversimplified? Can it be made into a rigorous scientific idea, or is it just another evolutionary just-so story? What possible uses and hazards does this suggest for psychedelics?

https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/10/10/ssc-journal-club-serotonin-receptors/ or https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0269881117725915

If you want a more general introduction to psychedelics, here is a book summary of the recent popular review of psychedelics. “ How to change your mind” by Michael Pollen
https://www.hustleescape.com/book-summary-how-to-change-your-mind-by-michael-pollan/