How to plan for a radically uncertain future?

In terms of investment assuming doom: Barbel strategy, "eating the seedcorn" high-dividend stocks - oil and cigarette companies for example - should be underpriced assuming near-term doom. Then something that captures the upside in the unlikely scenario of a property-rights respecting AI takeoff scenario - Google/Nvidia/Facebook stock maybe.  Perhaps someone has some thoughts on investing while under the anthropic shadow - puts on Apple and TSMC maybe? Food, farmland and ammunition? 

I am donating half my net worth over the next few years towards efforts to make it more likely that we end up in one of the better futures (focusing on highly frugal people, as they are more neglected by major grantmakers and my funds will go further), alongside most of my productive energies.

If anyone wants to commit to joining the effort, please reach out. There are many low hanging fruit in the alignment ecosystem space.

Well, I don't know that I'm a particularly good example to emulate but my responses to updating to a strong belief in a future of radical change in < ~15 years include:

quitting my comfy mainstream ML engineer job to do full-time AI safety research, despite this meaning a lot less money and security and additional challenges like having to work alone instead of in a good-feeling team environment. Also having to put extra will-power into self-motivating despite lack of clear objective rapid feedback loops.

stopping putting money into my 401k, stopping imagining I'm going to have anything like the normal retirement my grandparents and parent had

adjusting some of my stock investments

having tumultuous internal debate around whether to go forward with my plans to have a child (I lean yes, but it feels a lot trickier to be confident now than it did 5 years ago)

sleeping less well at night

becoming more anxious and acquiring corresponding ticks and bad habits

spending more time and energy on trying to actively combat this anxiety with better mental health practices like extra exercise, more time in nature, taking more frequent brief work breaks to play with my dog, active measures to improve my sleep (got a CPAP machine which helps a lot) plus simple stuff like better mattress and light blocking curtains.

being prepared to move my family to a new country in an emergency (passports up to date and such)

trying to intentionally put energy into social connections I could depend on in an emergency situation.

buying a home in a rural area near my extended family, with backup stores of food & fuel, wood stove for heat, generator, solar panels, electric and non-electric car, tools, various supplies, etc.

writing down plans and thoughts for ways in which I currently think are the best ways to handle a wide variety of futures. I've already spent a lot of my life trying to imagine weird ways the future might go and trying to acquire a very broad base of skills, so that's not much of a change. One change that's more recent is more of a focus on planning and skill development around how I might work with a complex digital world making good use of AI assistants. In a multi-polar world with a mix of aligned and unaligned proto-AGI that might or might not FOOM, what actions are beneficial to yourself and humanity for you to take? 

Can you come up with a set of questions that you could ask an agent over the internet using a text-based medium to try to determine if that agent is human vs AI, to determine how aligned with your interests that agent is? What sorts of questions would be harder to fake answers to?

trying to actively think and worry less about things which have a longer time horizon than 15 years. Like, practicing getting rid of habits like feeling guilty for failing to recycle personal waste when it is inconvenient. The landfill near my home won't run out of space in the next 15 years no matter how little I recycle! This is a silly worry! But there are so many little silly habits in my brain, and getting rid of them isn't easy.

Anyone who thinks they have even remotely the sort of competence which could help build aligned AI should work on that, even if they think they aren't of the highest caliber or not seeing immediate positive benefits accruing from their initial attempts. I'm definitely of the opinion that the more people we can get working on it the better (provided that you don't hinder the best thinkers with the fumbling of the worst).

Even seemingly non-technical tasks can be quite useful, even if you can only afford to do them in your spare time. For instance, I think that writing down your moral intuitions around a wide variety of subjects could be quite useful. The more samples we have of human moral intuitions the better, for a variety of different alignment-related uses. Also, if we do hit a strong AGI singularity, it could be really useful for your personal morals and desires to be represented in the datasets used to train and align the AGI! Much more likely that the resulting world will match your desires.

Here's a paper with some good examples of the sorts of questions it is useful for you to come up with and write down your personal answers to: https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.02275 

another related paper: https://psyarxiv.com/tnf4e/ 

I find myself in a similar situation. The way I think about this is that there are a few things that are essential to survive in this radically uncertain scenario:

1. Health. That's the absolute first. Take care of it. Do sport regularly. See friends and have solid connections. Have a regular sleep pattern. Eat well.  Don't overwork.  Have fun. Having a bad health can seriously impair your capacity to maneuver in this uncertain world. It does not depend on you exclusively but there are many things that you can certainly do
2. Finances. To me, it does not make a lot of sense to count on a 401k, because I don't really know if I will be alive by the time I can use that / the state as we know will be able to pay that. So I prefer to diversify my investments in different currencies, shares, etc and in different countries. It is very important to me not to have any debts (some people will disagree here). I prefer investments in ETFs or cryptos than in real estate because they are way more liquid and there is less bureaucracy involved. If you aren't rich, try at least to have a profession that allows you to find a job very easily in any part of the world, and be willing to move. Go where you are treated best. There are many places better to live than the US
3. Knowledge:  Gather a broad general culture. It saddens me a bit that LW is too much about AI (which I consider extremely important, don't get me wrong). Other ideas are important to survive in this world and I wished they were discussed more often here. I am talking about economics, anthropology, psychology, political science, etc. 

I put some probabalistic weight on radical-short-term-change (15-40 years) scenarios, but I think you're making a mistake to put ALL your belief in that, with none (or almost none) on more gradual changes.  Even if it's not over 50% (and I think it IS, but probably not over 70%), it's the most likely single kind of future that your property, investments, and knowledge remain valuable.  

For the radical changes, it's worth categorizing into "disasters I can't really do much about", and removing them from your calculations.  "Disasters I can help avert", and "Disasters I can prepare for" are worth an expected-value calculation: what do you give up in the most likely worlds (status-quo-ish) to have better experiences in those sets of worlds, multiplied by the probability of each?  Likewise "utopias where I win regardless of today's behavior" gets ignored, and "utopias I can help cause" and "utopias I can improve my experience in" get evaluated in terms of cost-benefit.

For me (and the children and younger people I'm involved with), the standard "live a good life, and prepare to continue that as long as possible, within the somewhat-predictable variations and complications of modern life" advice holds.  Monetary investments are a little more barbell than 25 years ago, and the risky/speculative portions need to be reviewed more often.  Among my circle, education is mostly seen as desirable on it's own, more than a required hurdle to pass, and a focus on breadth and problem-solving has always been a critical parts of it (both in school and out), so that doesn't change much either.  

I am not doing anything different from you, but I don't see any major tactical shifts that make much sense. The problem is that 401k and index funds already are the maximum-uncertain-future choices, for any future where the stock market succeeds as an institution. Residential real estate already is the lowest risk bet for any future where land is assessed according to price rather than according to use.

So mostly what I am trying to do is:

• Identify ways to make my property more useful. This is basic things, like growing a chunk of our food, increasing the amount of maintenance I can do myself by owning tools and practicing, etc.
• Try to identify triggers, which is to say things which clearly indicate it is time to dispose of a particular asset (or at least stop investing further in it). I am not successful in this so far, and the alternative remains "accumulate cash."

The core of my intuition about this problem: the less certainty there is, the higher the premium on options. On the other hand, the only real options are the ones we can actually execute. This causes me to believe that the best investments have more to do with skills and knowledge - particularly of coherent approaches to problems that you expect to crop up, or at least where to find out about them. This is to save time and resources spent on search when the circumstances change.

There is an entirely different approach which I probably invest more thinking in, though less money and physical effort (so far): opportunities to make a contribution. By this I mean pro-social business ideas. The most recent example was following the supply chain crunch, and after reading A Brief Introduction to Container Logistics [LW · GW] and I considered a business which went around buying up these containers and leases from the various participants in the name of being able to agree to both sides of the impasse described in the article. Still might if we hit another major crunch.

I expect climate wars to happen in the 20-30 year time frame, and the beneficiaries will be those living further north and able to fend for themselves and fend off the rest of the horde. It is really hard to prepare for something like that, other than learning survival skills and people skills, since controlling people will be more important than anything else.

Also, I think you might have meant exponential when you said logarithmic.

There's some prior discussion here [LW · GW].

• I try to both [be useful] and [have a good life / don't burn out]
• I started thinking a few days ago about investments. Initial thoughts:
  • Given we're not all dead, what happens and how to get rich?
    • Guess 1: There was a world war or something similar that got to all AI labs worldwide
      • My brain: OMG that sounds really bad. Can I somehow avoid the cross fire?
    • Guess 2: One specific org can generate 100x more tech and science progress than the entire rest of the world combined
      • My brain: I hope they will be publicly tradable, still respect the stock market, and I can buy their stock in advance?
      • Problem: Everyone wants to invest in AI companies already. Do I have an advantage?
  • If there will be a few years of vast-strangeness before we'll probably all die, can I get very rich beforehand and maybe use that for something?
    • (Similar to Guess 2 above, and also doesn't seem promising)

This is just initial, I'm happy in anyone joining the brainstorm, it's easier together

TL;DR Watch this video ...

or read the list of summary points for the book here

https://medium.com/steveglaveski/book-summary-21-lessons-for-the-21st-century-by-yuval-noah-harari-73722006805a

If you don't know who this guy is he is a historian who writes about the future (among other things).  

I'm 68 and retired. I've seen some changes. Investing in companies like Xerox and Kodak would have made sense early in my career. Would have been a bad idea in the long run. The companies that would have made sense to invest in didn't exist yet. 

I started my IT career in 1980 running an IBM mainframe the size of a semi-trailer while its peripherals took up an entire floor. Almost no one but hobbyists owned a PC and the internet did not exist as far as the public was concerned. Cell phones only existed in science fiction. In less than twenty years, by 2000, it was a radically different world. 

All my life I've been interested in the human story, reading widely about evolution, civilization, the arts and sciences. Never before have I seen so many signs that things are about to change dramatically. 

It's only human to try to do so but I don't believe you are going to be able to "figure this out". I suggest an analogy like the difference between an expert system and AlphaGo. The latter wins by learning, not by knowing a bunch of facts and rules. That's why I suggest this video. He talks about how to think about the future. 

When I retired, I thought about what to do. I had a lifetime's worth of knowledge in my head so I decided to write hard science fiction about the near future, 2025-2325. It's very difficult. Will the idea of cell phones be laughable in 2125? How long will it take for an AI to do a comparative analysis of two genomes in 2075? How will a population of eleven billion by 2100 change the world? Forget about 2100 - how will AI, climate change and geopolitics change the world by 2030?

Currently I'm writing a story about two students in a Masters Of Futures Studies program. They get a wild idea and the story follows their escapades. Futures Studies is not a mature science (if it even is a science) but it is a methodology used by major corporations and governments to plan for the future. Organizations like Shell Oil (Futures Studies aka Foresight was known as Scenario Planning there), the US military and the country of Finland among others use it and the stakes are pretty high for them. 

As I write hard science fiction, I have to do a ton of research on whatever I'm writing about be it genetics, human values, AI or what have you. So I am aware that unfortunately if you investigate Futures Studies you will encounter a lot of consultants who sound very woo-woo. But once you sort the wheat from the chaff there is a solid methodology underlying the discipline. It's not perfect (who can predict the future?) but it's as close to rigorous as you'll get. 

Here is a easily understandable explanation of the process by the person whom I have found to be the best communicator in the business. 

Here's the Wikipedia page about Futures Studies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies 

And here's a PDF explaining the methodology as it is generally applied

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/674209/futures-toolkit-edition-1.pdf

It's a lot I admit but is it worth your time? Think of it as an investment. 

It is a highly collaborative process so maybe get a group of like minded friends together and try it. There's no peer review process in Futures Studies. That issue is dealt with by the number of people you have involved.

Best of luck.

One way to plan for the future is to slow down the machinery taking us there to reduce the uncertainty about what is coming to some degree.

Another way to plan for the future is to do what I've done, which is to get old (70) so that you have far less chips on the table in the face of the uncertainty.  Ok, sorry, not very helpful.  But on the other hand, it's most likely going to happen whether you plan it or not, and some comfort might be taken from knowing that sooner or later we all earn a "get out of jail free" card.

For today, one of the things we have some hope of being able to control is our relationship with risk, living, dying etc.   In an era characterized by historic uncertainty, such a pursuit seems a good investment.

The world could be in the same state it is in now in 200 years (highly unlikely), but you could get run over by a bus tomorrow.

We could achieve biological immortality with the benefit of obsequious AI servants catering cheaply to our every whim. And, at the dawn of this new age, as you are lost in reverie contemplating the coming joys of you terrestrial eternity, an AI driver could direct its bus into you at 200mph, to avoid endangering the riders on the bus according to a calculus of minimizing harm. You would never know what hit you.

People who lived in more “predictable” times (did they?) could be less certain of their medical future or, indeed, of subsistence. I enjoy walks through old cemeteries. The markers often tell the stories of young families whose children were wiped out in a couple years, or young husbands who, already having suffered the loss of several children, lost their wives and her nearly newborns suddenly. And all kinds of other tragedy.

Those with appreciation of the larger forces at play easily perceive the precarious situation our society is. The less foresighted man on the street, born in the modern West into a relative Goldilocks zone of health, sustenance, and relatively peaceful predictability, is probably more confident of security and changelessness than people at any time or place, with the exception of members of tribes living traditional lifestyles of immemorial provenance.

My wife recently received a somewhat devastating diagnosis at a very young age. It is an interesting study to observe how folks react to it — the average response is, “you’re too young for such-and-such,” or, “you shouldn’t have to go through that”. Are such responses even imaginable for someone in 1873? We are implicitly certain of boundless health, limitless bounty, livable incomes or subsidies, and so forth. 

In a way, you just have to take it as it comes. Your dreams will be crushed, your plans ruined, in all likelihood, even without major change in society. Embrace that a little bit. Set manageable goals, particularly about how you wish to be living each day. Regularly prune what no longer contributes. Make your desired daily life a goal and try to achieve stability in that, riding the wave of change like a surfer, making adjustments to stay “put”. If you have a clear idea of daily life, you can often weather storms with it — think like a monk carving out a way of life in 1100, 1500, 1700, 1900, and 2022, living by the very same monastic rule. They’re masters at adjusting whilst maintaining an equilibrium built around a stable rule of life and a fixed goal for their lives.

Know the warning signs you are looking for to make major changes in a timely and responsive way. Is this inflation the signal to pull out of your 401k? Will energy price points signal the need to relocate where a vehicle is less necessary? What supply chain issues will you need to see to plant a Victory Garden, or to invest in land? But have a bias towards status quo in your daily life and seek equilibrium on your terms through all changes.