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Can't say about the others but East Germany was certainly undemocratic prior to 1945.
Who killed millions of people? Czech Communists? Or Communists in general?
The debate is apparently about the meaning of 'different'. Someone might define different as, 'predicting different observations' and another as 'different ontological content'.
If there is a box in front of you, which either contains as $20 or $100 note. However, you have very strong reasons to believe that the content of the box shall be unknown to you, forever. Is the question, "Is there a $20 or $100 note in the box?" meaningful. Is the belief in the presence of a $20 note different from the belief in the presence of a $100 note? That is essentially, similar to the problem of identical models.
I was thinking that probabilities cannot be assigned to our observed constants, given, say the hypothesis that the Universe has not been created by God. The Fine-Tuning Argument tries to update in favour if theism by observation of constants. For it to work we have to estimate the probability of our constants under the theistic hypothesis and its negation. I don't think it is possible.
I think that the Constitution of India might be modified to declare it a 'Hindu nation'
Difference in intuition. Otherwise, I think that there will be no state-sponsored space colonization program- and there will be no incentive for any private organization to establish a colony - given the price of sending and sustaining.
I don't like dogs of Western breeds due to this reason. They become overly committed to their owners. However, I like to feed street Indian dogs - who don't show any particular commitment.
Fine-tuning argument does not work for another reason : we simply don't know the number of universes and the mechanism that chooses the constants.
I see. Thanks for responding.
An endowment policy is a life insurance contract designed to pay a lump sum after a specific term or on death. Typical maturities are ten, fifteen or twenty years up to a certain age limit. That is only an example. If you believe that , for example, that it is likely that humanity will go extinct in 2030 - you shall not make an investment for which the pay day is after 2030. Because the anticipated profit is 0. So, rephrasing my question: Is it rational to make an investment today for which the returns are after 2040? (Because humanity might go extinct due to AI by then).
So, hypothetically : should I buy an endowment life insurance in which the maturity is after 20 years?
And now? Do you still believe in an all-powerful creator? (Not that I have any problem with that)
But your timeline should be highly significant for your actions. How has your timeline update affected your planned decisions?
USSR itself formed by the merger of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, Transcaucasian Soviet Socialist Republic, Beylorussian Soviet Socialist Republic and Russian Soviet Socialist Republic in December 1922. It is believed that Joseph Stalin preferred the other states to be annexed into Russia, while Lenin, the then Prime Minister of Russian Soviet Republic, favored a federation.
You misunderstand the problem in Kashmir. Kingdom of Jammu and Kashmir was invaded by tribals from Pakistan, and India intervened militarily to rescue the Kingdom, under the condition that Jammu and Kashmir joins India. For 2 years around the 1971 war, my grandfather worked in Jammu. Another connection : my grandfather was a member of the organization RSS's youth wing that had a role in the start of the religious conflict in Kashmir, in October 1947, which led to the invasion by the coreligionists of Muslims under attack there.
Malaysia is a merged country. I don't know of any other. Do you?
Apparently, GPT-3 has greatly influenced the forecasts. I wonder if this is true?
I apologize for nitpicking. But the name is Khrushchev.
But how can I believe that the photon-containing map predicts my experiences without implicitly believing in the existence of photons? Why should I believe in the success of the Photon-Containing map without believing in the existence of photons?
My concept of a meaningless claim is a claim that can be substituted for any alternative without any change to anticipated experience. For example, the claim 'Photon does not exist after reaching the Event Horizon' can be substituted for the claim 'Photon exists after crossing the Event Horizon' without bringing any change to anticipated experience. Thus, it is not rational to believe in any of the alternatives. What is your practical definition of 'meaningless'?
Yes
I did not know how much work is going on.
My Dad it seems might have psychosomatic stomach ache. How to convince him to convince himself that he has no problem?
One obvious thing comes to mind : veganism. But I plan to do nothing famous and have no monuments dedicated to me, I have nothing to fear from the mobs of the future.
This is unlike anything I have heard!
If you were in India (1.37 billion population) what would your position be.
This problem is known in the philosophy of science as the underdetermination problem. Multiple hypotheses can fit the data. If we don't assign a priori probabilties to hypotheses, we will never reach a conclusion. For example, the hypothesis that (a) Stephen Hawking lived till 2018 against (b) There was a massive conspiracy by his relatives and friends to take his existence after his death in 1985. (That was an actual conspiracy theory). No quantity of evidence can refute the second theory. We can always increase the number of conspirators. The only reason we choose (1) over (2) is the implausibility of (2).
There are a few questions on which the evidence is really one-sided - like the common ancestry of huamns and chimps.
What is your assessment of the probability that some kind of Third Level Explanation is needed for such events?
There is a tiny error in the paper. It mentions in one place that multicellular life has existed fro 500 million years on Earth. That is not correct. I suppose you have mistaken the Cambrian Explosion which happened just before 500 million years ago, with the origin of multicellular life.
Are you a Christian? Otherwise, I don't think anyone can trust Lee Strobel. Did he mention Behe's evidence for common descent :
- vitamin C pseudogene: "Both humans and chimps have a broken copy of a gene that in other mammals helps make vitamin C." (71); "It's hard to imagine how there could be stronger evidence for common ancestry of chimps and humans." (72)
- hemoglobine pseudogene: "More compelling evidence for the shared ancestry of humans and other primates comes from (...) a broken hemoglobin gene." (71)
- yeast whole-genome-duplication: "Although duplicated genes can be used to trace common ancestry" (74) From 'The Edge of Evolution'
Um, the lines of moral agency are blurry. For example, would you consider an chimpanzee to have moral agency? A gorilla? An orangutan? A gibbon? An elephant? A dolphin?
Well the probability might be even lower, according to Eugene Koonin.
Evolution might have optimized intelligence, if there were no trade-offs.
What is your estimate of the probability of ubiquitous genetic engineering for cognitive enhancement prior to 2045-50 (one estimate for when Singularity might happen)?
I think that the problem of the specialness of the human brain might be illuminated by information of its evolution. At what point did the ancestors of humans become cognitively superior to most other animals? And how much distance did Brain evolution cover after that point? From what I inferred from data of cranial size increase, it seems like there was a strong positive selection for increase in brain size. Is this right?
The conditions are similar here in India. The left and liberals, believe often without reason that the minorities are being oppressed. Cases within our country where the Muslim minority is in majority, and the national majority (but local minority) have faced oppression are whitewashed. Recently the liberals have taken to protesting against Citizenship Amendment Act, and calling it Islamophobic. And a pretty unrelated act, that is. But anyone who tries to correct their opinion, for example by telling them to read the Act, will be called a fascist.
The human population will be more than 8 billion, and the population of India will reach 1.5 billion. 90%
India's GDP would rise up to 5 trillion dollars. 70%
India will cease to be a secular state, and communal violence will become more common. 50%
Russia's GDP will be less than 2 trillion dollars. 60%
No human being would be living on another celestial object (Moon, another planet or asteroid). 80%
USA would have less than 1000 troops in Afghanistan. 80%
A new civil war or high-level insurgency will break out in Syria. 50%
Israel would not have vacated West Bank. 80%
There will be 3000+ active nuclear warheads. 90%
Average predicted year of arrival of AGI will be revised by +10 years at-least. 40%
At least 1 more genetically modified human will be born. 100%
There was the Project Nim Chimpsky. It is probably the one you are talking about.
There is the Quantum Russian roulette thought experiment. It was posted in LessWrong.
I have a view that would seem contrarian in this community.
SIAI shifted its focus from triggering an AI-based Singularity to doing 'saferty' research, because Yudkowsky understood that SIAI is no better off at building AGI than any other AI research organization. Actually, worse, because of low funding and at that time the sole full-time member.
That is partially true. The extensive atrocities carried ot by the Western Allies have not been given as much spotlight as the atrocities of the Axis and now the Soviets.
Then, what is your preferred ethical theory?
Conspiracist nonsense? Can you explain your reasons + what that implies about the rest of the events that occured on 9/11. You forgot to mention, perhaps your global warming denial. Are you some far-left hippie? So many downvotes? Care to explain?
Because of whatever parts I have read of an English translation of the Islamic scripture Quran, it seemed like 'Mein Kampf' means Quran and Nazi means 'Muslim'.
Does the work of FHI come under Philosophy?
In one word : Bicameralism.
MIRI's website mentions a list of their donors. However, the list does not mention Jeffrey Epstein. I found that name on a list of donors from 2011. Perhaps, the scandal or conviction of Jeffrey Epstein made MIRI remove his name.
Well an underlaying assumption is that the superintelligence knows about our existence. Incidentally, we have till now not recieved any radio signal from an alien entity, nor have we observed any kind of alien megastructure. For an alien superintelligence to be aware of our existence it would have to be in our cosmic neighbourhood. The second assumption is that it has some preference over the existence of life on Earth. That is not reasonable to assume. It might be possible that the superintelligence is a mute observer. For example, we can extend this theorem to some kind of a Divine Right of Royalty