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I did not know how much work is going on.
My Dad it seems might have psychosomatic stomach ache. How to convince him to convince himself that he has no problem?
One obvious thing comes to mind : veganism. But I plan to do nothing famous and have no monuments dedicated to me, I have nothing to fear from the mobs of the future.
This is unlike anything I have heard!
If you were in India (1.37 billion population) what would your position be.
This problem is known in the philosophy of science as the underdetermination problem. Multiple hypotheses can fit the data. If we don't assign a priori probabilties to hypotheses, we will never reach a conclusion. For example, the hypothesis that (a) Stephen Hawking lived till 2018 against (b) There was a massive conspiracy by his relatives and friends to take his existence after his death in 1985. (That was an actual conspiracy theory). No quantity of evidence can refute the second theory. We can always increase the number of conspirators. The only reason we choose (1) over (2) is the implausibility of (2).
There are a few questions on which the evidence is really one-sided - like the common ancestry of huamns and chimps.
What is your assessment of the probability that some kind of Third Level Explanation is needed for such events?
There is a tiny error in the paper. It mentions in one place that multicellular life has existed fro 500 million years on Earth. That is not correct. I suppose you have mistaken the Cambrian Explosion which happened just before 500 million years ago, with the origin of multicellular life.
Are you a Christian? Otherwise, I don't think anyone can trust Lee Strobel. Did he mention Behe's evidence for common descent :
- vitamin C pseudogene: "Both humans and chimps have a broken copy of a gene that in other mammals helps make vitamin C." (71); "It's hard to imagine how there could be stronger evidence for common ancestry of chimps and humans." (72)
- hemoglobine pseudogene: "More compelling evidence for the shared ancestry of humans and other primates comes from (...) a broken hemoglobin gene." (71)
- yeast whole-genome-duplication: "Although duplicated genes can be used to trace common ancestry" (74) From 'The Edge of Evolution'
Um, the lines of moral agency are blurry. For example, would you consider an chimpanzee to have moral agency? A gorilla? An orangutan? A gibbon? An elephant? A dolphin?
Well the probability might be even lower, according to Eugene Koonin.
Evolution might have optimized intelligence, if there were no trade-offs.
What is your estimate of the probability of ubiquitous genetic engineering for cognitive enhancement prior to 2045-50 (one estimate for when Singularity might happen)?
I think that the problem of the specialness of the human brain might be illuminated by information of its evolution. At what point did the ancestors of humans become cognitively superior to most other animals? And how much distance did Brain evolution cover after that point? From what I inferred from data of cranial size increase, it seems like there was a strong positive selection for increase in brain size. Is this right?
The conditions are similar here in India. The left and liberals, believe often without reason that the minorities are being oppressed. Cases within our country where the Muslim minority is in majority, and the national majority (but local minority) have faced oppression are whitewashed. Recently the liberals have taken to protesting against Citizenship Amendment Act, and calling it Islamophobic. And a pretty unrelated act, that is. But anyone who tries to correct their opinion, for example by telling them to read the Act, will be called a fascist.
The human population will be more than 8 billion, and the population of India will reach 1.5 billion. 90%
India's GDP would rise up to 5 trillion dollars. 70%
India will cease to be a secular state, and communal violence will become more common. 50%
Russia's GDP will be less than 2 trillion dollars. 60%
No human being would be living on another celestial object (Moon, another planet or asteroid). 80%
USA would have less than 1000 troops in Afghanistan. 80%
A new civil war or high-level insurgency will break out in Syria. 50%
Israel would not have vacated West Bank. 80%
There will be 3000+ active nuclear warheads. 90%
Average predicted year of arrival of AGI will be revised by +10 years at-least. 40%
At least 1 more genetically modified human will be born. 100%
There was the Project Nim Chimpsky. It is probably the one you are talking about.
There is the Quantum Russian roulette thought experiment. It was posted in LessWrong.
I have a view that would seem contrarian in this community.
SIAI shifted its focus from triggering an AI-based Singularity to doing 'saferty' research, because Yudkowsky understood that SIAI is no better off at building AGI than any other AI research organization. Actually, worse, because of low funding and at that time the sole full-time member.
That is partially true. The extensive atrocities carried ot by the Western Allies have not been given as much spotlight as the atrocities of the Axis and now the Soviets.
Then, what is your preferred ethical theory?
Conspiracist nonsense? Can you explain your reasons + what that implies about the rest of the events that occured on 9/11. You forgot to mention, perhaps your global warming denial. Are you some far-left hippie? So many downvotes? Care to explain?
Because of whatever parts I have read of an English translation of the Islamic scripture Quran, it seemed like 'Mein Kampf' means Quran and Nazi means 'Muslim'.
Does the work of FHI come under Philosophy?
In one word : Bicameralism.
MIRI's website mentions a list of their donors. However, the list does not mention Jeffrey Epstein. I found that name on a list of donors from 2011. Perhaps, the scandal or conviction of Jeffrey Epstein made MIRI remove his name.
Well an underlaying assumption is that the superintelligence knows about our existence. Incidentally, we have till now not recieved any radio signal from an alien entity, nor have we observed any kind of alien megastructure. For an alien superintelligence to be aware of our existence it would have to be in our cosmic neighbourhood. The second assumption is that it has some preference over the existence of life on Earth. That is not reasonable to assume. It might be possible that the superintelligence is a mute observer. For example, we can extend this theorem to some kind of a Divine Right of Royalty
Till this point, I have heard the idea of an ethics axiomatic system several times. But, no suggestion of what such axioms could be. Computer aided analysis in the sense of an automated theorem checker to search for contradictions in the system.
Quantum immortality can be easily adapted to the Tegmark multiverse idea. Turchin wrote an article naming the idea 'Multiverse immortality'. His formulation is that : for every sequence with n observer movements, there shall be an observe moment n+1.
Essentially, your first suggestion is doing computer aided analysis on ethical theories, and proving theorems under them. Right?
Timeline of AI Alignment meetings
Beware, starting as an irrational socialist, one might end up as a far left Socialist for e.g. Maoism. (My experience)
I will put it under 10 percent. AI progress is too fast and SIAI pardon me, MIRI has till now no kind of a code to experiment with.
At present, both India and Pakistan have more than 100 nuclear warheads each. The relations are cold and (as an Indian living in India) there is much hatred. Militants based in Pakistan actively wage an insurgency in the Indian region of Kashmir.
Being a Marxist at one time, I also suffered from this problem.
Well, then why would the person even give refuge to Anne Frank? Or wait for the Brownshirt to come to his house.
Who is here from a country that does not hold elections?
I wouldn't trust USA with a super intelligence, after their conduct in Korea, in the nuclear attack on Japan and the bombardment of civilians in Vietnam and the blockade of Iraq in 1990s that killed over half a million. Not to forget the interference in 1970s and 1980s that installed a large number of military dictatorships, the support for the genocide of Bangladeshis by Pakistan in 1971 (USA nearly intervened to save the Islamist military dictatorship in war from the freedom fighters and secular democratic government of India).
(a) The Christian god is supposed to be the Creator of the Universe, so the size of the universe has no effect on the probability of his existence.
(b) God is supposed to be omnipotent (thus having the power to defy all physical laws) and omniscient (having every bit of information).
I don't think the size of the Universe will make such a god any more improbable.
I happen to know a few guys, religious, that have maid the Many-Worlds God Argument. Since, all possible worlds exist, therefore it means that in some world God exists. Since, God is Omnipotent so he rules our world too.
Definitely. Before such technology comes into existence, cryonic preservation for future Resurrection is fantasy.