Are there any prediction markets for Covid-19?
post by devas · 2020-04-13T14:47:40.273Z · LW · GW · No commentsThis is a question post.
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Answers 6 NunoSempere 4 NunoSempere None No comments
What it says on the title.
Are there any prediction markets around where one can bet money on things such as the total amount of confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. by June, the date on which a vaccine will be released to the public, whether hydroxychloroquine is a viable treatment drug, etc. etc.?
Predictit only has politics-adjacent bets, and I don't know of any other publicly available places one can bet on such things.
Answers
predict.replicationmarkets.com will be looking into predicting viable treatments in the future, according to their last newsletter, but right now it's mostly hypothetical. Rewards are monetary.
pandemic.metaculus.com has several prediction tournaments with monetary prizes. Example.
foretold.io has two active covid communities. No monetary prizes, but predictions are used by epidemicforecasting.org
gjopen.com has plenty of covid questions, but the only reward is reputational.
Augur.net may have some markets, but they're transitioning to v2.0 and markets are temporarily unavailable.
Now there is a pure version of what you were looking for! Corona Information Markets
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