Prediction Market (Mis)Usespost by Screwtape · 2022-11-07T02:29:56.254Z · ? · GW · None comments
Two Truths and A Prediction Market, and Other Creative Misuses of Hanson's Board Game
Want to play some games with a prediction market twist?
In the early nineties, Robin Hanson developed a board game to represent a prediction market. Called "Murder She Bet" it took place alongside a murder mystery, with participants using monopoly money to predict whodunnit. A full description of the original can be found at Hanson's site: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/08/my-market-board-game.html Well, I don't watch many murder mysteries, but I do like board games, so on Monday night we're going to misuse this mockery of financial instruments!
We'll have Two Truths and a Prediction Market, where participants can work out which of three statements about their fellows is a lie. We'll have speed games, where two players will play a one-on-one board game while the audience predicts who will win- but the players are allowed to look at the market. We'll have a short trivia game, and see if the market can hone in on the answers to oddball questions about the world. We may have other uses for it- if you show up with an idea for what to do with a paper-powered prediction market, I'm open to suggestions!
I'll have two boards so we can have a couple markets going at once. As you arrive, you'll each get the same amount of monopoly money. As you leave, see me (I'll be the one in the distinctive green and blue hat) to hand in however much you made. Whoever ends with the most fake money wins the (not at all) coveted and (not the slightest bit) prestigious Monday Predictor Trophy!
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