Donating to help Democrats win in the 2024 elections: research, decision support, and recommendations

post by Michael Cohn (michael-cohn) · 2024-07-14T22:57:47.120Z · LW · GW · 1 comments

Contents

  Who should read this
  So, is there an organization like GiveWell that can wade in and cut through the bullshit?
  Key recommendation 1: Donate now, not later
  Key recommendation 2: Orgs to look at
    Citations needed?
  Key recommendation 3: Tax deductions and donating stock / crypto
  Other questions
    Should I wait / give up due to the Biden resignation situation or the Trump assassination attempt?
    What about donating to candidates?
    Is there a better way to donate than credit card / Venmo?
    What if I want to volunteer?
    Will I get spammed to death?
  Takeaways
  Acknowledgements
None
1 comment

A couple of months ago I went searching for research-based or otherwise plausibly effective ways to donate money to help Democrats win in the US federal elections. I found a fragmented smattering of semi-closed, secretive sources. In this post I'll pull together the best and most inspiring recommendations I found from trustworthy people, as well as lots of other details about how and when to donate for optimal impact.

Note: wondering if recent news changes everything? Please see the section "Should I wait / give up due to the Biden resignation situation or the Trump assassination attempt? [? · GW]"

This post will not argue that members of this community should support Democrats, or even that intervening in US elections is a good idea. It's written for readers who already agree, to help them pursue their aims in an informed and effective way. Please keep discussion about whether this is a fundamentally worthy cause out of the comments. In return, I promise that this post won't criticize people who disagree with its politics or make the assumption that everyone in the community shares them.

I am not an authority on this topic, but I'm writing this because I think some of this info will be new and valuable to some folks here. This post is based on a review of available literature (mostly unpublished but shared within the industry), consulting with experienced folks in the research-based Democratic voter turnout world, recommendations from expert research reviewers, and my own knowledge from working in the field^[1] about which groups have well-designed research programs. 

Who should read this

This post might be for you if:

• You think the world will be a better, safer, or higher-utility place if Democrats control at least one of the presidency, House, or Senate.
• You're put off by some of the Democrat/leftist discourse and infighting you see online and don't feel great about contributing to the most vocal groups
• You'd donate to electoral work if there were sufficiently high-value opportunities -- and you dream about a group like GiveWell wading in, cutting through the bullshit, and telling you what would actually make a difference.

Finally, I think there's a good chance that some people reading this will already know everything here, or have other informed recommendations to share. Please do so and I may update the post with your suggestions!

So, is there an organization like GiveWell that can wade in and cut through the bullshit?

Sort of. There's a great organization called Analyst Institute that helps political organizations of all sizes run rigorous evaluations on their programs and share the results, but they're entirely industry-facing and don't make recommendations about which organizations to support. That's where Focus for Democracy comes in: They review research (including from the Analyst Institute), program plans, and funding gaps, and advise donors on top opportunities. There are a few other groups that do this (including the excellently-named Mind the Gap), but afaik they focus on small groups of very large donors and don't tend to have public faces. 

Focus for Democracy runs biweekly webinars where you can talk to leaders at top-recommended groups and ask them hard questions about their programs and evaluation. I strongly recommend attending one; You can sign up here (and put down Michael Cohn as the person who referred you), or PM me for a direct invitation with a faster response time. 

Key recommendation 1: Donate now, not later

If you donate in the next couple of weeks, the top organizations listed below will have time to plan programs and hire staff to implement the most effective tactics for getting voters to turn out in November. Later donations are progressively less effective because there are fewer ways to throw money at problems. At my organization we're madly rushing to staff up and purchase vendor capacity right now. After this we'll be in execution mode for the next few months, with far fewer ways to change our plans in response to new funds. 

If you were planning to donate later, please put in the effort now instead. If you think there's a chance that you'll panic in October and desperately look for ways to make a difference, see if you can import some of that urgency from the future (probability-weighted, if you wish). You can even precommit to not giving any more this year, no matter how worried you feel or how persuasive the requests -- I'm confident that the early donation will still increase your impact. 

Key recommendation 2: Orgs to look at

If you want to give right now, here are my top recommendations based partly on Focus for Democracy's work and partly on other established research:

• Working America, a union-affiliated group that does canvassing in working-class neighborhoods year-round. A lot of their work involves helping people access government programs that help them pay the bills or otherwise actually make their lives better, and after that they focus on political advocacy.

• Voter Participation Center^[2] (VPC) and their affiliate, Center for Voter Information (CVI). They mail people people boring, official-looking documents about how to register to vote or with relatively accurate candidate information. They've a/b tested this strategy to hell and back, and it's proven incredibly effective at getting people's attention in comparison to glossy ads and panic-inducing emails. I know and respect their research team, who are constantly learning more about what, when, and how much mail to send to whom. 

  (note: CVI is explicitly partisan and can spend money in ways that more effectively benefit Democrats. VPC is a non-partisan organization and donations to it are fully tax deductible.)

• If research itself inspires you to give, you can support Analyst Institute directly; they're absolutely awesome but I don't think they have major funding gaps right now so this isn't my top recommendation.

Citations needed?

It's frustrating that I can't link to published research supporting these programs, but it's almost universal for political organizations to share their research with other groups that are broadly on the same side, and keep it confidential from everyone else. If you sign up for the Focus for Democracy presentations I mentioned above, you can get access to some of this material. 

Key recommendation 3: Tax deductions and donating stock / crypto

If you have stock or cryptocurrency that's gone up in value, you can get ridiculously huge benefits from donating that instead of cash. If you donate to a nonpartisan c3 organization (like VPC above), you don't pay capital gains taxes on the increase in value, and you can deduct the full current value on your personal income tax. If you donate to a c4 partisan organization there are still circumstances under which that can be exempt from capital gains tax, which could be particularly immense for crypto.

This requires some extra annoyance, and can be anxiety-provoking if you haven't dealt with tax issues like this before, but the returns on your time could be extremely high. 

Focus for Democracy helped me coordinate this type of donation to their recommended groups; check their Working America donation link for contact info and support! You can also contact me privately for help or moral support.

Other questions

Should I wait / give up due to the Biden resignation situation or the Trump assassination attempt?

No.^[3] 

The tactics I've described in this post are evergreen and don't depend on what's happening in a particular news cycle.. No matter who the Democratic candidate is, people will still need to register to vote; they'll still appreciate help paying their bills; and factual information about party-line congressional votes will still have the potential to change people's minds. 

On a personal level: my colleagues and I are varying levels of stressed over everything that's happening, but we don't feel our mission is any less clear. In the coming months we'll still be out there using the best knowledge we have to inspire people to register and vote. 

What about donating to candidates?

Individual-candidate campaigns are much less likely to have programs that are based on good research. They also tend to evaporate at the end of every campaign cycle, so there's a lot less durable learning from year to year. On the other hand, they get preferential rates on TV ads, which are still one of the most cost-effective ways to net votes, and they support a lot of door-to-door canvassing by local volunteers, which may also be effective.

My strongest recommendation is to support the groups linked above. But if you do want to give to a campaign, the most trustworthy advice I've heard is to give to the Montana and Ohio Senate races, which may be neglected relative to other races with their level of importance. There's also an organization called Oath that will split your donation among a group of close and potentially pivotal House races, and part of their value prop is that they process your payment and shield your info from campaigns, to stop you from getting on mailing lists. 

Is there a better way to donate than credit card / Venmo?

If you're donating money, just use the regular online donation page. I've tried donating by check or ACH and it was a terrible mess; I don't think it's worth it unless you're donating $10k or more (if you are, write to the org and they'll give you white-glove treatment getting through it).

What if I want to volunteer?

I'll make a separate post about that!

Will I get spammed to death?

If you donate to a political campaign? Probably (though see the Oath link above). The orgs I'm recommending definitely don't attempt to monetize their donor lists by sharing them or selling advertising services. If you tell them you're planning to donate more than $1000 then you'll probably also be able to get in touch with a "development" person whose job is to track how donors prefer to communicate. You can ask them not to send solicitations, and IME as both a donor and a professional they'll bend over backwards to avoid pissing you off in the hopes that you'll give again later.

Takeaways

• Request an invitation to a Focus for Democracy presentation; they're the closest thing we've got to GiveWell (or PM me and I can send you an invitation to the next presentation directly).
• Give now, while orgs have time to spend your money thoughtfully and in research-based ways.
• I currently recommend Working America (canvassing that gives people actual financial help), Center for Voter Information (postal mail candidate guides), or Voter Participation Center (nonpartisan voter registration mail).
• If you own stock or crypto that's gone way up in value, talk to Focus for Democracy or chat with me.
• Thank you from the bottom of my heart for giving your hard-earned resources to thoughtfully try and make the world a better place.

Acknowledgements

I'm grateful to many people who gave me advice during my search! The people named here do not necessarily agree with all of the beliefs or recommendations above, but they all contributed useful advice or connections. They include the folks named in the comment on this Bountied Rationality thread, a number of my colleagues at Vote Rev and other organizations working on progressive voter turnout, the scientists at Analyst Institute, and other folks who have put together their own recommendations, including Neil Sinhababu et al.

1. ^{^}

   I'm a research lead at Vote Rev, a behavioral research and design team that creates voter turnout tactics and teaches other organizations to use them effectively. We are not a direct or indirect beneficiary of any of the recommendations in this post. 

2. ^{^}

   Note that VPC/CVI is not one of Focus for Democracy's current top recommendations; I assume this has to do with funding gaps and current opportunities. 

3. ^{^}

   In my weakly-held but actionable opinion. I'd be very suspicious of anyone who gives a high-confidence answer given the lack of precedent.

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