ESTIMAT: A Fermi-Based Framework for Cognitive State Optimization

post by Gabriel Brito (gabriel-brito) · 2024-12-01T15:13:55.699Z · LW · GW · 2 comments

Contents

  Abstract
        a. Moment of Peak Motivation (MPM)  provides the calibration 
  A. INTRODUCTION
        3. Validation Method
        Advantages of the parallel:
      States Metric (SM)
        Why is it important?
        Based on Information Entropy because:
        Why this metric is the best foundation:
  B. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
    a. Moment of Peak Motivation (MPM) 
    b. Flow Personal System (FPS)
        Why it matters:
        Analyze the Balance
    c.  Dynamic Informational Levels (DIL)
        Analyze the Balance
        1   Elementary Level
        Elementary ↔ Emotional Boundary
        2   Emotional Level
        Emotional ↔ Social Boundary
        3   Social Level
        Social ↔ Intellectual Boundary
        4   Intellectual Level
      I. Diagrama (DIL)
      II. DIL in Context: Comparative Analysis with Established Frameworks
    Practical Applications:
    1. Level Recognition
    - Monitor physiological indicators
    - Track emotional states
    - Observe social engagement
    - Assess abstract thinking capacity
    2. Transition Management
    - Identify current dominant level
    - Recognize transition triggers
    - Support smooth level shifts
    - Maintain appropriate resource allocation
    3. Optimization Strategies
    - Match interventions to appropriate levels
    - Build foundational stability
    - Develop level-specific skills
    - Enable fluid movement between levels
    d. Superfunctions Matrix (SF)
        1. Natural Optimization
        2. Enhanced Replicability
        3. Multilevel Integration
      I. Atomic Model of Superfunctions
        Structural Parallels
        Functional Properties
        Integration Principles
        Practical Applications
        Predictive Power
    e. Relationship with MPM and Conceptual Framework
        A. Role of the MPM Map → SF
    f. Example Provided from MPM
        Analysis of Superfunctions in a Military Context:
        Elementary → Social
        Emotional → Intellectual
        Social → Intellectual
    g. Practical Value
        1. Diagnosis
        2. Development
        3. Application
  C. SYSTEM BENEFITS
  D. PROBLEMS
      Problem: Complexity in practical implementation
      Problem: Objective validation of progress
      Problem: Individual personalization
      Problem: Integration into daily life
  E. CONCLUSIÓN 
None
2 comments

Abstract

This paper introduces ESTIMAT (Evaluation System Through Information Management and Analysis Tool), a framework that bridges the art of self-discovery and the science of systematic estimation. Inspired by Fermi estimation principles, ESTIMAT transforms the challenge of understanding and optimizing cognitive states into a structured, measurable process. I could say that it is a proposal on how to measure the XP (experience) of one's personal life.

The framework use with base to personal analisis

From this we established:

a. Moment of Peak Motivation (MPM)  provides the calibration 

b. Flow Personal System (FPS): A dual-axis decomposition system that focuses on internal self-adjustment (X) and external environmental adaptation (Y).

c. Dynamic Informational Levels (DIL), progressing from biological levels to pure information metrics.

d. Superfunctions Matrix (SF) optimizes the patterns  

Like the act of learning to "value oneself to know oneself," ESTIMAT emphasizes both introspection ("stimat") and analytical rigor ("estimat") to achieve cognitive optimization. The model evolves from a binary perspective of black-and-white thinking to a multicolored gradient, representing the richness and complexity of cognitive states as they are decomposed and refined.

ESTIMAT operationalizes complex evaluations by systematically breaking them into Moment of Peak Motivation in Flow Personal System (FPS), Dynamic Information Levels (DIL) y Superfunctions Matrix (SF). This approach not only simplifies decision-making in information-dense environments but also enables individuals to align their actions with their intrinsic and extrinsic goals, fostering both clarity and adaptability.

 

 

 

 

A. INTRODUCTION

The challenge of optimizing complex cognitive processes shares remarkable parallels with Fermi problems in physics. Just as Enrico Fermi decomposed complex physical estimations into manageable components (like estimating the number of piano tuners in Chicago by breaking down population statistics and service patterns), ESTIMAT breaks down Moment of Peak Motivations into measurable units to estimate priority of goals, routines and tasks.


O ESTIMAT seeks to balance accuracy and practicality

Simpler methods (like journaling) tend to be less accurate.

More accurate methods (like neuroimaging) are less accessible.

The strength of the Fermi method lies in achieving good accuracy with simple tools.

 

For example, instead of asking "How effective was my day?", we can break it down into:

- Level of engagement in key activities

- Quality of interactions

- Progress toward defined goals

- Resource expenditure

 

Meta-Problem: Optimization of complex cognition considering individual variations and limitations
 Objective: Adaptive system for evidence-based personal evaluation
 Core Principles:

The following sections will demonstrate how this Fermi-like approach transforms abstract personal evaluation into a practical, measurable system.

 

ESTIMAT ↔ Personal Fermi Estimation
↓
Common principle: Breaking down complex problems into manageable parts

  1. Hierarchical Decomposition

Purpose: Transform overwhelming complexities into manageable parts

FERMI: Breaking "How many piano tuners in Chicago?" into population segments

ESTIMAT: Breaking "peak cognitive state" into specific observable indicators

Why it works: Human minds process information better in chunks

 


2. Range Approximation

Purpose: Establish realistic boundaries for estimates

FERMI: Setting minimum/maximum possible values

ESTIMAT: Using personal Moment of Peak Motivations as upper bounds, baseline states as lower

Why it works: Anchoring estimates prevents wild miscalculations

 

 

3. Validation Method

Purpose: Ensure reliability through multiple perspectives

FERMI: Cross-checking different calculation approaches

ESTIMAT: Monitoring across physical/emotional/social/intellectual levels

Why it works: Multiple validation points reduce systematic errors



 

4. Uncertainty Management
Purpose: Account for and minimize estimation errors

FERMI: Using error margins and correction factors

ESTIMAT: Implementing dynamic adjustments based on feedback

Why it works: Systematic error handling improves accuracy over time

 

 

 

Advantages of the parallel:

For example:

 

States Metric (SM)

States Metric (SM) is a fundamental measurement system based on information entropy that evaluates the efficiency of generating cognitive states through iterative calibration.

To effectively apply Fermi estimation to our States of Metric analysis, we need a quantifiable reference point. Similar to how Statistical Mechanics bridges microscopic and macroscopic properties, this reference point allows us to connect individual measurements to meaningful large-scale estimates.

Why is it important?

Based on Information Entropy because:

Why this metric is the best foundation:

The SM serves as the mathematical foundation that integrates the other components of the framework:

B. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

This section lets you test the model's basic concepts using your own experience. By analyzing your Moment of Peak Motivations, you'll discover how your mind processes information most effectively and learn to replicate these conditions.

Think of it as creating your personal performance map - starting from your best moments and working backwards to understand how you got there.

 

The form invites you to explore the basic concepts of the model using your personal experience and to help us validate the framework in four simple steps. 

https://forms.gle/FuHDaRqrBQnDLkQZ9 

To quantifiable States Metric (SM) that evaluates state-generation efficiency through iterative calibration to

Maximize potential universe states

Account for individual differences

Enable systematic validation

The ESTIMAT framework provides of four integrated components that work together to optimize cognitive performance:

 

a. Moment of Peak Motivation (MPM)

- Your personal reference point of maximum effectiveness

- Serves as calibration baseline for the entire system

- Provides concrete examples for replication

 

b. Flow Personal System (FPS)

- Manages information flow through internal/external channels

- Acts like a cognitive irrigation system

- Directs energy and resources efficiently

 

c. Dynamic Informational Levels (DIL)

- Maps four processing levels: Elementary, Emotional, Social, Intellectual

- Identifies optimal intervention points

- Tracks transitions between levels

 

d. Superfunctions Matrix (SF)

- Integrates multiple processing levels

- Optimizes patterns for maximum performance

- Enables systematic replication of success

 

These components work together like a precision instrument:

- MPM provides the calibration

- FPS manages the flow

- DIL maps the territory

- SF optimizes the patterns

 

 

a. Moment of Peak Motivation (MPM) 

A Moment of Peak Motivation is your reference point of maximum effectiveness - when everything "clicked" and you performed at your best with minimal effort. It's like your personal high score in a game, but for real-life performance.

 

Why it matters:

- Serves as your baseline for what's possible

- Shows your natural patterns when operating optimally

- Reveals which conditions help you perform best

- Provides concrete examples for goal-setting

Your Moment of Peak Motivation isn't about being perfect - it's about identifying when you were most "in the zone". This becomes your compass for future improvement, helping you recognize and recreate optimal conditions.

 

1. Moment of Peak Motivation

Describe a moment in your life where you experienced peak performance 

1. What happened? (Brief situation)

2. What made it especially effective?

3. Which elements could you reproduce?

Example format:

Situation: [One sentence]

Why effective: [Key factors]

Replicable elements: [List 2-3 things under your control]

Your highest-rated moment will serve as your Reference Moment for ESTIMAT calibration.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PersonalExample:

1. What happened in your Peak Moment? (Brief situation)

 

 

I was the lead instructor, despite being outranked by two Army sergeants who were my assistants. A critical moment arose when the class became dispersed, and my superiors suggested traditional military discipline (push-ups and running). I assertively maintained my focus on first aid training rather than physical education, despite visible disapproval from a sergeant.

During the next day's CPR training, I suggested using chairs to improve technique efficiency, saying "The movement is sensual, the movement is sexy." This prompted an immediate challenge from an older officer (later revealed to be a general) who expressed concern about offending female soldiers (2 women among approximately 30 men).

Instead of becoming defensive, I turned this into a teaching opportunity:

 

Called one of the female soldiers forward

Used Socratic method to demonstrate her learning:

"What's your first action finding an unconscious person?"

"Check for environmental risks"

"Then?"

"Call for support"

"Next?"

"Assess the victim"

Concluded by asking if she felt offended, to which she responded: "This was the most educational class I've had in the army."

The general revealed his rank, praised the unconventional teaching approach, and awarded me with:

Outcome

Peace Warrior Badge

Official Military Cover

Later battalion-wide recognition ceremony

 

 

 

 

 

2. What made it especially effective your Peak Moment?

 

Years of preparation meeting opportunity

Balanced handling of authority and expertise

Educational principles applied under pressure

Fortune in participant selection and response

Transformation of potential conflict into achievement

 

 

 

 

3. Which elements could you reproduce your Peak Moment?

 

 

Application of long-term preparation (military and teaching background since age 14)

Strategic conflict management (prioritizing information over confrontation)

Educational methodology (Socratic method implementation)

Social intelligence (turning potential conflict into demonstration)

Scientific approach (empirical validation through direct participant feedback)

Risk management (successful navigation of hierarchical and gender dynamics)

 

 

 

 

 

 

b. Flow Personal System (FPS)

FPS (Flow Personal System): Like coordinates in a plane, where 'sense' refers to direction (X for internal, Y for external), and recalibration is the adjustment of these vectors.

Building on your Peak Moments, the Flow Personal System (FPS) helps you channel these insights into actionable patterns. While MPM shows you what's possible, FPS provides the mechanism to recreate these conditions systematically. Think of MPM as identifying your destination, and FPS as building the road to get there.

 

 

Like a map to direct a flood of sensations and experiences - like water, they can either overwhelm you or be channeled productively that is complementaries. FPS works like a initial dual system of canals:

 

 

Why it matters:

Instead of being overwhelmed by a "flood" of experiences, FPS helps you:

- Create manageable streams of information

- Direct energy where it's most needed

- Maintain balance between internal needs and external demands

- Adjust your "channels" based on changing conditions

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analyze the Balance

 

X-Axis (Internal Channels):

- Directs your internal "flow" that target is change you

- Creates sustainable patterns

 

Y-Axis (External Channels):

- Manages your interaction that target is the environment

- Optimizes response to challenges

 

 

 

Like a well-designed irrigation system, FPS doesn't fight against natural flows - 

it works with them, making them useful and sustainable

.

 

c.  Dynamic Informational Levels (DIL)

 

 

While FPS provides the channels for information flow, Dynamic Informational Levels (DIL) maps the different types of processing occurring within these channels. If FPS is the irrigation system, DIL represents the different types of terrain being irrigated - each with its own needs and characteristics.

 

The DIL framework segments cognitive processing into four fundamental levels, arranged in order of increasing informational abstraction and decreasing biological immediacy. Divide by:

1. Elemental; 2. Emotional; 3. Social ; 4.  Intellectual

 

 

1. Complexity Management

- Reduces cognitive load by identifying the dominant processing level

- Enables targeted interventions at the most relevant level

- Prevents resource waste on inappropriate interventions

 

2. State Optimization

- Each level generates distinct types of universe states

- Higher levels can create more numerous and diverse states

- Lower levels provide essential stability for higher functions

 

3. Decisión Clarity

- Helps identify which level requires attention

- Guides resource allocation decisions

- Supports more effective intervention strategies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analyze the Balance

1. Elemental; 2. Emotional; 3. Social ; 4.  Intellectual

You have 10 points in total. Each circle represents 1 point. Select the circles to allocate your 10 points between 1. Elemental; 2. Emotional; 3. Social ; 4. Intellectual  , according to the resources you believe each one was needs  to your Moment of Peak Motivation (MPM)  .

 

 

 

1   Elementary Level

 

Elementary ↔ Emotional Boundary

Defined by:

- When learned memory is more important than genetic memory

- Shift from immediate survival to pattern processing

- Transition from reactive to learned responses

Indicators:

- Ability to override immediate impulses

- Formation of conditioned responses

Example: Moving from hunger-driven eating to scheduled meals

 

 

 

2   Emotional Level

 

Emotional ↔ Social Boundary

Defined by:

- When collective emotions is more important than individual emotions

- Shift from individual to collective processing

- Transition from personal to interpersonal optimization

Indicators:

- Consideration of others' states becomes primary

- Group outcomes prioritized over individual comfort

Example: Choosing group harmony over personal preference

 

 

 

3   Social Level

 

Social ↔ Intellectual Boundary

Defined by:

- When information is more important than social emotions

- Shift from relationship-based to abstract processing

- Transition from intuitive to analytical thinking

Indicators:

- Abstract principles guide decisions

- Context-independent analysis becomes possible

Example: Moving from social convention to principle-based decisions

 

 

4   Intellectual Level

 

I. Diagrama (DIL)

Dynamic Informational Levels (DIL)

Key DIL Innovations:

 

a. Information-Centric Approach

- Focuses on information processing efficiency

- Measures state generation capacity

- Enables quantifiable optimization

 

b. Clear Boundary Definitions

- Specific transition indicators

- Measurable validation methods

- Practical intervention points

 

c. Biological Integration

- Direct connection to neurological systems

- Measurable physiological markers

- Evidence-based validation methods

 

d. Practical Application

- Actionable intervention strategies

- Clear optimization pathways

- Measurable outcomes

 

 

The DIL framework maps cognitive processing like shells of increasing complexity - each level representing a distinct way our minds process and generate information:

 

Why This Matters:

 

1. Complexity Management

Like a well-designed filing system, DIL helps you:

- Quickly identify which "drawer" (level) needs attention

- Focus resources where they'll have maximum impact

- Avoid wasting energy on mismatched interventions

 

2. State Generation

Similar to energy levels in atoms:

- Lower levels: Fewer but more stable states

- Higher levels: More numerous possible states

- Each level builds upon and requires stability of lower levels

 

3. Decision Enhancement

Provides a practical navigation system:

- Maps where you are cognitively

- Shows where intervention will be most effective

- Guides resource allocation decisions

 

4. Practical Application through FPS (Flow Personal System)

 

5. DIL Levels map to X/Y axes:

Elementary Level:

- X: Internal survival responses

- Y: Environmental threat assessment

 

The power of DIL lies in its ability to transform abstract cognitive processes into manageable, actionable frameworks - like turning a complex maze into a clear roadmap.

 

II. DIL in Context: Comparative Analysis with Established Frameworks

 

The DIL framework offers distinct advantages when compared to traditional hierarchical models of human development and cognition:

 

1 Adaptive Foundations Theory vs. DIL

Traditional: Domain-specific cognitive modules

DIL Advantage:

- Integrates modular processing within levels

- Shows how modules interact across levels

- Links ancestral adaptations to modern functions

 

2. Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs vs. DIL

Traditional: Linear progression from physiological to self-actualization

DIL Advantage: 

- Dynamic interaction between levels

- Allows simultaneous processing across levels

- Emphasizes informational efficiency over need satisfaction

 

3. Evolutionary Psychology Triune Brain vs. DIL

Traditional: Reptilian → Limbic → Neocortex

DIL Advantage:

- More precise neurological mapping

- Clearer operational boundaries

- Integration of modern neuroscience findings

 

4. Gardner's Multiple Intelligences vs. DIL

Traditional: Separate, parallel types of intelligence

DIL Advantage:

- Hierarchical information processing model

- Clear transition mechanisms

- Measurable level indicators

 

5. Modern Cognitive Science Models vs. DIL

Traditional: Focused on specific cognitive processes

DIL Advantage:

- Integrates emotional and social processing

- Provides practical intervention framework

- Links biological and intellectual functions

 

6. Coalitional Psychology vs. DIL

Traditional: Focus on group formation and alliance building

DIL Integration: 

- Social Level explicitly incorporates coalition dynamics

- Maps to observed neurological patterns in group decision-making

- Connects individual and collective information processing

 

 

 

 

Practical Applications:

 

1. Level Recognition

- Monitor physiological indicators

- Track emotional states

- Observe social engagement

- Assess abstract thinking capacity

 

2. Transition Management

- Identify current dominant level

- Recognize transition triggers

- Support smooth level shifts

- Maintain appropriate resource allocation

 

3. Optimization Strategies

- Match interventions to appropriate levels

- Build foundational stability

- Develop level-specific skills

- Enable fluid movement between levels

 

 

 

d. Superfunctions Matrix (SF)

The levels identified in DIL interact to create Superfunctions (SF) - optimized patterns that emerge when different levels work in harmony. Like a master conductor coordinating different sections of an orchestra, SF integrates the various levels of processing to create peak performance states.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TSR/DIL

X (Individual)

Y (Environment)

1. Biological Prioritization

Store/Recognize

Discard/Execute

2. Stimulus Prioritization 

Self-Observe/Self-Transform

Self-Motivate/Self-Play

3. Relational Prioritization 

Empathize/Deliberate

Comunicate/Cooperate

4. Informational Prioritization 

Analyze/Predict

Simplify/Track

 

 Practical Application through FPS (Flow Personal System)

 

DIL Levels map to X/Y axes:

Elementary Level:

- X: Internal survival responses

- Y: Environmental threat assessment

 

Emotional Level:

- X: Personal emotional patterns

- Y: External emotional triggers

 

Social Level:

- X: Individual social needs

- Y: Group dynamics management

 

Intellectual Level:

- X: Internal information processing

- Y: External knowledge application

Superfunctions are optimized patterns of information processing that emerge when the DIL levels operate in sync. Like a mental operating system, they integrate different processing levels to maximize performance.

Why Superfunctions Are Important

1. Natural Optimization

2. Enhanced Replicability

3. Multilevel Integration

I. Atomic Model of Superfunctions

The relationship between DIL levels and Superfunctions mirrors the quantum model of atomic structure - a powerful parallel that illuminates a gradient of probabilities for both function and form:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structural Parallels

- Each level contains distinct energy states

- Transitions follow predictable patterns while maintaining uncertainty

 

Functional Properties

Just as atomic behavior is determined by valence electrons:

- Active processing occurs primarily at the outermost accessible level

- Inner levels remain crucial for stability

- Interaction potential depends on available energy states

- Performance can be predicted probabilistically

 

Integration Principles

Similar to atomic orbital theory:

- Levels are not strictly separate but form a probability cloud

- Functions can exist in multiple states simultaneously

- Energy determines available states

- Interactions follow quantum-like jumps between states

 

Practical Applications

This model helps us understand:

- Why stability at fundamental levels enables higher function

- How energy investment affects available states

- When and how transitions occur between levels

- Which interventions are most likely to succeed

 

Predictive Power

Like atomic models, this framework:

- Provides probabilistic forecasting

- Explains observed patterns

- Guides intervention strategies

- Balances precision with uncertainty

 

Key Innovation:

This atomic model of Superfunctions transforms abstract cognitive processes into visualizable, manageable patterns while preserving their inherent complexity - much like how the atomic model made quantum mechanics more accessible without oversimplifying it.

e. Relationship with MPM and Conceptual Framework

A. Role of the MPM Map → SF

B. Integration with FPS (X/Y)
Internal (X):

External (Y):

 

f. Example Provided from MPM

Analysis of Superfunctions in a Military Context:

Elementary → Social

Emotional → Intellectual

Social → Intellectual

 

g. Practical Value

1. Diagnosis

2. Development

3. Application

 

C. SYSTEM BENEFITS

 

D. PROBLEMS

Problem: Complexity in practical implementation

Thought → People feel overwhelmed by complex systems
↓
Solution in ESTIMAT → Modular and scalable system
↓
Evidence → "Adaptation Framework" structure with progressive levels
↓
Result → Users can start simple and gradually scale up

 

 

Problem: Objective validation of progress

Thought → It’s hard to measure cognitive improvements
↓
Solution → Multi-metrics system
↓
Evidence → Validation mechanisms with internal and external metrics
↓
Result → Quantifiable and verifiable progress

 

 

 

Problem: Individual personalization

Thought → Every person is different
↓
Solution → Individual Customization Framework
↓
Evidence → Capacity Assessment and Implementation Levels
↓
Result → System adaptable to individual needs

 

 

Problem: Integration into daily life

Thought → Highly theoretical systems are impractical
↓
Solution → Progressive Implementation in phases
↓
Evidence → Foundation → Integration → Mastery
↓
Result → Gradual and practical implementation

 

 


 

E. CONCLUSIÓN 

The ESTIMAT framework consists of four integrated components that work together to optimize cognitive performance: 

 

a. Moment of Peak Motivation (MPM) 

b. Flow Personal System (FPS) 

c. Dynamic Informational Levels (DIL) 

d. Superfunctions Matrix (SF) 

 

This introductory framework outlines ESTIMAT's core concepts and theoretical foundations. Several important aspects will be addressed in subsequent texts to maintain clarity and prevent information overload:

These topics deserve thorough examination and will be explored in detail through dedicated sections, allowing readers to process and implement the system progressively.

But at the momento, the ESTIMAT proposal seems effectively addresses the main challenges because:

Thank you for Stimat yourself and Estime yourself

2 comments

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comment by Matt Goldenberg (mr-hire) · 2024-12-01T16:31:53.177Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Can you say more about how you've used this personally or with clients? What approaches you tried that didn't work, and how this has changed if at all to be more effective over time?

There's a lot here that's interesting, but hard for me to tell from just your description how battletested this is

Replies from: gabriel-brito
↑ comment by Gabriel Brito (gabriel-brito) · 2024-12-01T23:33:24.486Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Hi Matt Goldenberg,
I’m truly happy. In a world with so much information available, catching someone’s interest made me yell like a rooster.

I see that having more tested evidence would be ideal. Since 2013, I’ve been looking for ways to battle-test ESTIMAT. That year, I had to leave the military firefighting corps in Brazil because I disagreed with their "ethics," so to speak.

I decided to start a business, and at first, ESTIMAT was a way to distribute profits by merit in a company I started with a friend. We used an experience points (XP) system for this. Although I don’t have baseline metrics or a control group, I noticed that with this system, our dedication to the business increased. Later, we lost our supplier in China and couldn’t find competitive replacements.

That’s when I thought: Why not use a similar model to evaluate myself and improve my own experience (XP)?

To measure human skills, XP, and so on, I first pursued a postgraduate degree in neuroscience to explore how pleasure might form synapses in the brain. However, I lacked the mathematical background to make solid estimations.

I tried enrolling in a master’s program in biological mathematics but couldn’t find interested peers in my city. The groups I encountered were either focused on external mathematical problems or philosophy, but I couldn’t find one that connected both fields with human behavior.

I moved to Argentina and started studying math thinking to improve my mathematical skills. Since 2015, I’ve tested various versions of ESTIMAT. At one point, I evaluated myself every 25 minutes using the method. While this isn’t what I propose now, it helped me structure my values, identities, and virtues in a more sophisticated way. According to my personal improvement graphs, the results were incredible.

I have gigabytes of spreadsheets with data testing different ESTIMAT alternatives. Even my partner joined the process at one point. However, communicating these ideas was always challenging for me because I’m dyslexic. Now, with the help of AI and visual communication tools, I’ve been able to structure a text that seems more understandable to others.

I know these proofs are far from a randomized controlled study or a large-scale simulation, but they’re the best I could manage over these years.

Additionally, my main purpose in sharing ESTIMAT here is to understand what the rationalist community thinks about the theory. I want to identify potential major flaws before investing in a more expensive experiment or simulation.