↑ comment by [deleted] ·
2011-02-08T02:27:08.353Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I have an idea-outline for a very public-friendly lecture on "why should I care about rationality," and sooner or later I'm going to make a power-point of this and hopefully present it.
Main point: probability calculations will help you make better life decisions.
- Picture the mighty armies of Genghis Khan, sweeping across Central Asia. Now picture a small Chinese garrison, under-supplied, and under poor leadership. They don't stand a chance, unless they're very lucky. All the odds are in the Mongols' favor.
In the movies, maybe the Chinese soldiers pull through, against all odds. But in real life, you'd rather be Genghis Khan. Most people do not succeed against all odds; people succeed because they've set up the odds to favor them.
The best way to predict what's going to happen to you is to look at what typically happens to people in similar circumstances. Thinking "In my case, it'll be different" is very common, but it usually results in failure. You want the statistics to be on your side. You want to be Genghis Khan.
- But what if I am different from the average person?
Conditional probability. What you can predict, given special information that applies in your case. Bayes' Theorem.
Bayes' Theorem applied to a real-life scenario: what's the probability that you'll get a job, given that you've been offered an interview.
The power of back-of-the-envelope calculations.
Ask the room to estimate the number of fire trucks in New York.
Now break the problem down (number of streets, fire stations per square mile, fire engines per fire station.) Get a new estimate.
Breaking the problem down and multiplying makes you much more accurate than just guessing. Doing little calculations helps you get things less wrong. And you don't need to be a genius -- you just need to try it.
- The power of gathering information.
What if you looked at average earnings for a career before you embarked on it?
What if you gathered data on what you're eating and how much weight you lose, when you go on a diet?
You can make much better decisions if you take a quick look at the evidence.
Rationality is the art of treating all of real life as though it were science.
Make predictions about what will happen if you take a certain action.
Gather data that will make your predictions more accurate.
Break estimates down into smaller components and do a little arithmetic, so that your guesses will be more accurate.
Use Bayes' Theorem to update your beliefs when you find new facts.
Then act, to maximize your chances of getting what you want.
- It sounds simple, but you're probably not doing this all the time.
Have you ever tried something that you knew probably wasn't going to work?
Have you ever made a major decision and not even started to reason what the likely outcome would be? Did you do any arithmetic before you made your decision?
Have you ever avoided learning information because you were afraid it would be disappointing or make you feel bad?
If you answered yes, you have something to work on.
- Rationality will make your life better.
Yeah, it takes a little work to gather information and make probability estimates. Yeah, learning the truth can sometimes be disappointing or unflattering.
But in the end, you'll be much happier because you'll succeed at things more often.
And you'll worry less -- instead of hoping against hope that a plan will work, you'll have confidence that it's likely to work. Confidence based on real evidence, not wishful thinking.
- More to learn -- what you can do.
People have common cognitive biases that make clear thinking more difficult and predictions more error-prone. Learning about these cognitive biases, and correcting for them, will help you be more rational.
Learning more math, especially probability theory, can help you make sounder decisions.
Practice making predictions -- if you have a belief, bet on it! See if you're right. Play games of strategy and chance to sharpen your skills.
The goal is to "make beliefs pay rent," to practice the mindset of trying to believe what's true, what matches up to reality. Try to catch yourself if you start to engage in wishful thinking. If you think something is true, test it against reality! Do an experiment, or look up the statistics, to see if you're right. It's always better to find out what's actually happening than to go by feel or intuition. Intuition sucks.
It's a long road to rationality. Once you start, you'll be working on getting better at it for the rest of your life. As you become more rational, you'll find out that a lot of what people around you do is incredibly irrational, and you'll see ways you can make the world a better place by adding a dose of clear thinking. Or you'll see ways you can make your life better and happier than most people's.
Auntie Mame: "Life's a banquet and most poor suckers are starving to death!" Rational people don't have to be suckers.
Replies from: Mass_Driver
↑ comment by Mass_Driver ·
2011-02-08T09:04:18.952Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I hope you give the talk, and that it goes well!
For whatever it's worth, I think your strongest example is the NY firetrucks (because it makes the audience feel a little bit silly...silly enough to want to remember to do it the right way, but not so silly as to be humiliated), and your weakest example is the Chinese garrison. Unless you've recently seen Mulan or whatever, it's tricky to empathize with a Chinese garrison, and it's certainly not funny. I would see if you can find another, more light-hearted example to get across the idea of wanting statistics to be on your side. I like that the example tries to force you to choose whether you would rather be a garrisoner or a raider, and that both options feel emotionally available, i.e, most Americans are not pre-committed to be loyal to one side or the other. I'm concerned, though, that there are just so many inferential steps there that the audience won't quite get the message.
Either way, go give this talk, and let us know how it goes!