Decision Theory: Value in Time
post by Lu93 · 2014-07-27T10:01:09.837Z · LW · GW · Legacy · 7 commentsSummary: Is there demand for writing posts about this aspect of decision-making?
And of course, is there offer? Because I didn't see any post about it.
Topics I intended to cover include:
- How much is worth 100$ in few years? Why? Why is it useful?
- Risk-return relationship.
- How is it useful in life outside finance?
And topic I would like, but I am not sure if i should cover:
- How can we apply it to death? (in sense, should I live a happy life or struggle to live endlessly?)
I found that missing in decision analysis, and I think it is very important thing to know, since we don't always choose between "I take A" or "I take B", but also between "I take A" or "I take B in two years", or "should i give A to gain B every year next 100 years?"
Why not simply redirect to some other source?
Well, that can be done either way, but I thought clear basics would not harm and would be useful to people who want to invest less time in it.
7 comments
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comment by Viliam_Bur · 2014-07-27T15:41:53.353Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
The topic is interesting, but I hope you will write something non-trivial. Sorry for unspecific advice, but this is how it is. I guess I could be more specific about what I consider trivial. Something like this:
"There is uncertainty, therefore $100 one year later is only worth r × $100 now, where r is the discount rate, a number between 0 and 1. Two years later, it's r^2 × $100, etc. Similarly, a cake one year later is worth r cakes now. If we make an infinite sum 1 + r + r^2 + ..., the result is finite, therefore immortality doesn't have infinite value." -- This alone probably wouldn't provide any value to most readers.
If you can say more than this, I'd like to hear it. Also, please don't split it to multiple articles; and if you really have to, then please put something interesting in the first article already, don't make it merely a teaser.
Replies from: Lu93↑ comment by Lu93 · 2014-07-27T16:01:45.089Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Well, I do have to start there, but, actually, i wanted to go different way. I will argue that immortality has different value given the different information and preferences we have.
(Because, it's not 1 + r + r^2... it's v(0) + v(1) r + v(2) r^2 +.... where vx is value we obtain in x-th year of our life. This can converge or diverge, it is dependent on our evaluation of v's and ofc. r.)
Also, please don't split it to multiple articles; and if you really have to, then please put something interesting in the first article already, don't make it merely a teaser.
Thank you for advice, I will give my best to make it short and interesting. Though not at cost of making it unclear and therefore useless.
Replies from: Nonecomment by Lu93 · 2015-03-12T14:40:03.165Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Ok, this thing is harder then it looked. Writing demands time and concentration, and I am not sure if i can explain things as good as they were explained to me.
I am absolutely sure it would be highly beneficial for people to understand basics of economics and finance, but I think I am not the right person to do this. So, I give up, and I will just recommend some literature/video lessons. I think i saw some book list on this forum, so, if you want to hear more about this stuff, head there.
comment by Metus · 2014-07-27T11:36:33.778Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I am very interested. There is the extremely early retirement community and I am trying to figure out what of their advice I can incorporate in my life. I don't have to necessarily retire at 35 but having the option would be nice. Or supplement my income with interest on capital. Fundamentals like these can help to make these kind of decisions.
comment by Axiom · 2014-07-27T12:09:08.092Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I wrote a poem (I think it's a poem?) about the value in time... I'll share it here because it might have relevance?
aka= Yes I am interested in your potential article.
"If you want time to slow down. Count the seconds in the hour.
I can't help it… What if I stop counting? If I stop counting than time doesn't exist right? Time is merely a matter of perception so if I stop perceiving time, then time will no longer exist any more then the sun rises and sets.
But I understand our perception of time too well. I know time better than I know my own mother. I know it's touch, I know it's scent, I know it's fears and ethics…. 4pm is so distinctive to me……. I could tell you without a doubt who 4pm is if time were a room filled with physically identical but genomically diverse people, if I were to pick the restaurant 4pm would eat at I could sit at his favorite table and order his favorite meal just before he gets there. I would sit and eat in 4pm's seat consuming a big bowl full of spite and cunning, swaping tales of adventure and intruige with midnight…… A friend… At least I've got 12 in the beginning and the end.
Yes a friend…. Midnight has always been good to me….. Sure we've had some bad times, I've lost myself, been beaten and abused, AND LOVED, fukd, laughed, danced and hugged…. At least these are moments with time I care to remember. Much unlike 4…. 4 bates me… 4 offors me willing, half naked models but neglects to mention the small text on their bottoms reading "Figments of your imagination".
This is a testament to the death of time, to it's Un-existance…. I don't want to hate time, but time wants to consume me. How am I meant to like something that wants to consume me? I doubt my cheese burger likes me…… But I have no choice… And sadly neither does my cheese burger…. If you want time to cease existing.
Eat your cheese burger in bites per second"