Adam B's Shortform

post by Adam B (adam-b) · 2025-01-08T14:24:50.194Z · LW · GW · 3 comments

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comment by Adam B (adam-b) · 2025-01-08T14:24:50.473Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Predict your 2025: a website for recording probabilistic forecasts about your life and the world in the next year.

Replies from: CstineSublime
↑ comment by CstineSublime · 2025-01-09T23:52:10.304Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

How does this work? I can't see any screenshots or videos that show the website interface.

Replies from: adam-b
↑ comment by Adam B (adam-b) · 2025-01-15T11:37:52.429Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Here's what the question creation interface looks like – you can create any question, and there's a bunch of suggestions to help you get started:

 

Here's what it looks like when you've created some questions. I made these predictions with my partner, so you can see her predictions on the question that's expanded:

 

For more info, I'd suggest just using the website itself. It is designed to be super easy to use and self-describing!

The website is part of Fatebook, a tool for rapidly tracking predictions. Predict Your Year is a specialised page for creating yearly predictions (which is a popular activity for many people, e.g. inspired by Scott Alexander's annual prediction posts). You can read more about Fatebook in this LessWrong post [LW · GW].