Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions

It would be lovely if you could also support a form of formatted export feature so that people can use this tool with the knowledge that they can export the data and switch to another tool (if this one gets Googled) anytime.

But yes, I am really excited for a super-fast and easy-to-use and good-looking prediction book successor. Manifold markets was just intimidating for me, and the only reason I got into it was social motivation. This tool serves a more personal niche for prediction logging, I think, and that is good.

↑ comment by Adam B (adam-b) · 2023-07-12T15:22:45.573Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I've added a feature to export all your forecasts to CSV, thanks for the suggestion!

This looks amazing. Thank you so much for making this. I've already integrated this in my team shard's MATS 4.0 slack, and look forward to quantifying our results over time. See also: Predictions for shard theory mechanistic interpretability results [LW · GW], but PredictionBook results are clunky and have lots of friction and were harder to coordinate on. That's why the MATS 3.0 prediction retrospective post isn't out yet.

I especially like the "hide other forecasters to avoid anchoring" feature.

Any chance we can get an Android app version?

I really like this, and am glad there's active development on something similar to predictionbook!

Oh HELL yeah. I tried Metaculus's private predictions for this, but they needed just as much detail as the public ones did, at least in terms of "this field is required". They seem to be aiming more for the superforecaster/people who actually give their predictions some thought camp, which is perfectly fine, but not suited for me, who just wants something quick and simple.

Signup was easy, I love how it watches for dates in the question and automatically sets them in the resolve field. Posting a comment containing a link by itself (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/bitcoin-btc-price-could-hit-100000-by-end-2024-standard-chartered.html) on one of my private predictions seems to have posted a blank comment, though. (p.s. my odds on 1 BTC = $100,000 are about 15%)

Absolutely love this one. I've already migrated my (admittedly few) existing predictions over. Thanks for this!

EDIT: "Each day I’ll write down whether I want to leave or stay in my job. After 2 months, will I have chosen ‘leave’ on >30 days?" is such a good suggested question, both to demonstrate details about the site and also to get people to think about what prediction can do for them, personally! And I love how you can just click the suggestion and have it auto-populate into the title field.

Thanks! I've personally been using this to force myself out of procrastination! I just give high probability Y to "finishing work X by the end of the day" and then, to preserve my precious brier score, I end up... doing it, most of the time. "The best way to predict the future is to shape it" actually applies very well to to-do lists.

Is this available for discord?

A thing I'd quite like is to have tags for predictions (which, ideally, I can then see separate calibration scores for).

I hired someone to build this for predictionBook, and he came up with the UI option of just inserting hashtags into your prediction description (i.e. type something like "Donald Trump will win the 2024 election #politics" and it automatically gets the politics tag)

Can anyone who uses this or similar websites (eg. Predictionbook) explain what practical purpose websites like that have? Do you just want to check how correct your predictions are, or do you actually do something with that? Do you find the most value in the calibration graph and other statistics?

I really like the idea! Thanks for this!

Fatebook has worked nicely for me so far, and I think it'd be cool to use it more throughout the day. Some features I'd like to see:

• Currently tags seem to only be useful for filtering your track record. I'd like to be able to filter the forecast list by tag.
• Allow clicking and dragging the bar to modify probabilities.
• An option to input probabilities in formats besides percentages, such as odds ratios or bits.
• An option to resolve by a specific time, not just a date, plus an option for push notification reminders instead of emails. This would open the door to super short-term forecasts like "Will I solve this problem in the next hour?". I've made a substitute for this feature by making reminders in Google Keep with a link to the prediction.

This is terrific. One feature that will be great to have, is a way to sort and categorize your predictions under various labels.

↑ comment by Adam B (adam-b) · 2023-07-25T12:29:05.971Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I've now added this! You can also see your track record for questions with specific tags, e.g.:

the link to fatebook.io at the top does not work. 

Seems like a great tool, I've made several personal predictions to test it out and it was actually fun. The only thing that confused me is how the date widget works - it seemed to switch between date formats or something? idk. But I sometimes had trouble picking the date I want.

The LessWrong Review [? · GW] runs every year to select the posts that have most stood the test of time. This post is not yet eligible for review, but will be at the end of 2024. The top fifty or so posts are featured prominently on the site throughout the year.

Hopefully, the review is better than karma at judging enduring value. If we have accurate prediction markets on the review results, maybe we can have better incentives on LessWrong today. Will this post make the top fifty?

Just a thought: I experience discomfort with only being able to sign up via a Google account. I can get over it personally, but we should observe I'm probably not the only one, so there are people out there for whom this is an insurmountable hump that stops them from getting started. I dunno how many in actuality, but there are definitely bubbles where it's normal not to have used a Google service for years.

Alas, I dunno what alternative sign-up would be quickest and easiest to implement.