Comment by yoav-ravid on I translated 'Twelve Virtues of Rationality' into Hebrew. · 2019-06-02T09:05:00.012Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Fixed, thank you

Comment by yoav-ravid on I translated 'Twelve Virtues of Rationality' into Hebrew. · 2019-06-02T04:58:16.144Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I'm not using Facebook, but you can post it there if you want :)

putting it on rationality.co.il sounds like a great idea :)


Comment by yoav-ravid on I translated 'Twelve Virtues of Rationality' into Hebrew. · 2019-06-02T04:56:15.698Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Could you mark them? you should be able to to comment on the document

Comment by yoav-ravid on I translated 'Twelve Virtues of Rationality' into Hebrew. · 2019-06-01T19:07:18.068Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Done

Comment by yoav-ravid on The Twelve Virtues of Rationality · 2019-06-01T19:06:55.776Z · score: 12 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I translated this piece in Hebrew, here it is, enjoy :)

Comment by yoav-ravid on What is the best online community for questions about AI capabilities? · 2019-06-01T18:54:22.023Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

maybe you can post the question in all such communities you know (and those that'll be suggested here), and also turn it into a test - which one will give the best answers, with best signal/noise ratio?

I translated 'Twelve Virtues of Rationality' into Hebrew.

2019-06-01T18:52:02.436Z · score: 30 (11 votes)
Comment by yoav-ravid on The Simple Math of Everything · 2019-05-27T11:15:43.418Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Has there been any progress towards this idea? I as well think it would be a fantastic book and would love to read it

edit: I see there's a wiki page regarding this idea, with some links

Comment by yoav-ravid on The Simple Math of Everything · 2019-05-27T11:11:38.055Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

For those wondering about the answer - he did, it's called Arbital. but it was discontinued (see arbital postmortem)

Comment by yoav-ravid on How to improve at critical thinking on science/medical literature? · 2019-05-15T14:04:03.181Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

how do you find the sponsorships of studies and researchers?

Comment by yoav-ravid on alternative history: what if Bayes rule had never been discovered? · 2019-05-13T22:37:55.910Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I'd have to say the harder version is quite cool as well.

Yes, it's a good point, that it's a pattern that will pop up all over the place regardless. so the question is, if no one formally stated it (i.e identified it as a common pattern), how would it look? what scientific discoveries wouldn't have been made? what wouldn't have been invented? what would we have believed to be true that's actually false? what bad decisions would we make? what good decision have we made because of it that we would have been able to make without it?

all examples would do, though the more impactful the better :)

alternative history: what if Bayes rule had never been discovered?

2019-05-11T07:29:58.979Z · score: 7 (3 votes)
Comment by yoav-ravid on What is Metaethics? · 2019-04-25T08:06:37.129Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Flowchart is gone :|

Comment by yoav-ravid on User GPT2 Has a Warning for Violating Frontpage Commenting Guidelines · 2019-04-02T05:33:56.993Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

why not just delete his comments? (really asking)

Comment by yoav-ravid on Experimental Open Thread April 2019: Socratic method · 2019-04-02T05:29:19.518Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Haven't thought about that. it might. is there a way to test that? (i guess if you make it optional, as it is, then it won't act that way)

Comment by yoav-ravid on Experimental Open Thread April 2019: Socratic method · 2019-04-01T16:00:50.046Z · score: 8 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Claim: this thread would be better (although, it's already great) if people added confidence levels to their claims at the beginning, and updated them at the end of the discussion. (confidence level - 75%)

Comment by yoav-ravid on Experimental Open Thread April 2019: Socratic method · 2019-04-01T15:53:50.246Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Related, street epistemology. it's a practice similar to to Socratic questioning ("invented" by peter boghossian in his book 'a manual for creating atheists').

Here's a live example (and two more channels. these also have lectures about it)

Comment by yoav-ravid on Can Bayes theorem represent infinite confusion? · 2019-03-27T10:55:10.209Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks, it looks quite interesting, but unfortunately i don't think i have the technical knowledge to understand most of the paper. can you make a quick summery of the relevant points?

Comment by yoav-ravid on The Politics of Age (the Young vs. the Old) · 2019-03-25T19:49:15.639Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
But if we have to pick an age, it should be the SAME as other adult responsibilities

Why that?

Here in Israel not even all voting is on the same age limit - elections for government are from 18, and municipal elections are from 17.

Comment by yoav-ravid on The Politics of Age (the Young vs. the Old) · 2019-03-25T19:45:28.383Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

"Cortical white matter increases from childhood (~9 years) to adolescence (~14 years), most notably in the frontal and parietal cortices.[8] Cortical grey matter development peaks at ~12 years of age in the frontal and parietal cortices, and 17 years in the temporal lobes (with the superior temporal cortex being last to mature) for women and they have reached full maturity at age 16-17. For men, they become fully mature at age 18. In terms of grey matter loss, the sensory and motor regions mature first, followed by other cortical regions.[8] Human brain maturation continues to around 20[9] to 25[10] years of age."

From Wikipedia

Comment by yoav-ravid on Can Bayes theorem represent infinite confusion? · 2019-03-25T05:08:32.708Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Pattern, i miscommunicated my question, i didn't mean to ask about a Bayesian agent in the sense of a rational agent. just what is the mathematical result from plucking certain numbers into the equation.

I am well aware now and before the post, that a rational agent won't have a 100% prior, and won't find evidence equal to a 100%, that wasn't where the question stemmed from.

Comment by yoav-ravid on The Politics of Age (the Young vs. the Old) · 2019-03-24T12:42:40.089Z · score: 7 (3 votes) · LW · GW

correlation between improved-decision-making-skills, and moving from being 16 to 18 years old, seems somewhat weak and certainly not as strong as other predictors (education, self-reflection, IQ, etc.). also, it bears asking, why these certain ages - if 16 then why not 15? and if not 16, then why stay on 18 and not move to 19? cause AFAIK, the brain (frontal cortex) stops developing at age 24-25.

I grew up in a democratic school, my experience was that kids were far better at making decisions than the general population gave them credit for. and that it depended more on factors other than age.

anyone who says we should not lower the voting age for reasons of decreased decision making skills, should really ask himself why age based restrictions are OK, and other interventions that are sometimes suggested aren't (like passing certain tests).

800 scientist call out against statistical significance

2019-03-23T12:57:01.989Z · score: 10 (6 votes)
Comment by yoav-ravid on Willing to share some words that changed your beliefs/behavior? · 2019-03-23T05:08:26.353Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
You can also fill it out more than once if you want.

I would add this sentence to the form description

Comment by yoav-ravid on Can Bayes theorem represent infinite confusion? · 2019-03-23T04:57:53.993Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
This math is exactly why we say a rational agent can never assign a perfect 1 or 0 to any probability estimate.

Yes, of course. i just thought i found an amusing situation thinking about it.

You're not confused about a given probability, you're confused about how probability works.

nice way to put it :)

I think i might have framed the question wrong. it was clear to me that it wouldn't be rational (so maybe i shouldn't have used the term "Bayesian agent"). but it did seem that if you put the numbers this way you get a mathematical "definition" of "infinite confusion".

Comment by yoav-ravid on Can Bayes theorem represent infinite confusion? · 2019-03-22T20:07:11.037Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I see. so -

If P(H) = 1.0 - ϵ1

And P(E|H) = 0 + ϵ2

Then it equals "infinite confusion".

Am i correct?

and also, when you use epsilons, does it mean you get out of the "dogma" of 100%? or you still can't update down from it?

And what i did in my post may just be another example of why you don't put an actual 1.0 in your prior, cause then even if you get evidence of the same strength in the other direction, that would demand that you divide zero by zero. right?

Comment by yoav-ravid on Can Bayes theorem represent infinite confusion? · 2019-03-22T19:48:47.106Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks for the answer! i was somewhat amused to see that it ends up being a zero divided by zero.

Does the ratio between 1epsilon over 2epsilon being undefined means that it's arbitrarily close to half (since 1 over two is half, but that wouldn't be exactly it)? or means that we get the same problem i specified in the question, where it could be anything from (almost) 0 to (almost) 1 and we have no idea what exactly?

Can Bayes theorem represent infinite confusion?

2019-03-22T18:02:45.088Z · score: 4 (3 votes)
Comment by yoav-ravid on Blackmailers are privateers in the war on hypocrisy · 2019-03-18T14:45:11.925Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I would add that the claim that "on average it's good for such people to be punished" shouldn't be thrown around unless there's actually some quantification that suggests it. it may be a strong argument if it had some backing, but it isn't any good if it doesn't.

Ideas for a fact checking widget

2019-03-18T14:25:28.535Z · score: 10 (6 votes)
Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-18T06:12:18.923Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW
Can your system express sets that have multiple parent sets?

Yup, that was the idea. a strict hierarchy wouldn't be an accurate map of the communities landscape. I think you would probably get some really weird nesting in some places (especially if we're talking about individual users), but as long as it works and is intuitive to the user, it's fine.

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-17T06:42:04.397Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I am not sure i understand your middle sentence, but if i did then the system i proposed allows it. can you explain again?

Comment by yoav-ravid on The Best Textbooks on Every Subject · 2019-03-16T18:31:10.589Z · score: 11 (2 votes) · LW · GW

books added since the list was last updated -

On applied Bayesian statistics, Dr_Manhattan recommends Lambert's A student's guide to Bayesian Statistics over McEarlath's Statistical Rethinking, Kruschke's Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, and Gelman's Bayesian Data Analysis.

On Functional Analysis, krnsll recommends Brezis's Functional Analysis, Sobolev Spaces and Partial Differential Equations over Kreyszig's and Lax's.

On Probability Theory, crab recommends Feller's An Introduction to Probability Theory over Jaynes' Probability Theory: The Logic of Science and MIT OpenCoursewar's Introduction to Probability and Statistics.

On History of Economics, Pablo_Stafforini recommends Sandmo's Economics Evolving over Robbins' A History of Economic Thought and Schumpeter's chaotic History of Economic Analysis.

On Relativity, PeterDonis recommends Carroll's Spacetime and Geometry over Taylor & Wheeler's Spacetime Physics, Misner, Thorne, & Wheeler's Gravitation, Wald's General Relativity, and Hawking & Ellis's The Large Scale Structure of Spacetime.

Comment by yoav-ravid on Blackmail · 2019-03-16T08:55:10.422Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Can a strategy against blackmail be to reveal the information yourself?

If you don't want to comply (pay), and you believe Alice will follow on her threat, can you minimize harm by being faster and revealing the information yourself?

You can also gain yourself some reputation by seeming honest, and to take away any status Alice might have gotten from exposing you. Alice can't put you in a bad light for "stealing" it from her, cause then she admits to blackmail.

and lastly - who's gonna try to blackmail someone who just makes it past them and publishes it themselves?

Comment by yoav-ravid on You Have About Five Words · 2019-03-15T19:42:45.729Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

So "7 chunks" was used as almost a synonym for "7 words"? I thought that was some cool concept from neuroscience about working memory :)

Comment by yoav-ravid on You Have About Five Words · 2019-03-15T07:59:05.204Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

What is meant by 7 chunks? seems like that in itself was condensed jargon that i didn't understand :P

Comment by yoav-ravid on You Have About Five Words · 2019-03-13T14:37:29.740Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

So, an action coordination website should be able to phrase actions in four words?

This idea seems interesting, i'd love to see it somehow more formulated.

Do shorter kickstarter descriptions get funded more?

Do protest events on Facebook which have a shorter description get more attendees?

It probably also depends on personality - if you want to coordinate people who are high in contentiousness, you may need more words. for low contentiousness, less words. and if you want both, than you need to give a clear 4-word heading, and a bunch of nuance below.

Comment by yoav-ravid on The tech left behind · 2019-03-12T19:09:29.173Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Google glasses

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-12T13:54:06.272Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Sure, i agree with you. just not on the right scale/functionality for the MVP.

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-11T19:46:26.710Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

yup, pretty much nailed it :)

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-11T14:26:08.320Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

1. I'd love to see that. surely, it's not probable that a funding campaign which uses google forms instead of KickStarter would be better off, right? i think we have concluded this line of thought - i'm skeptical, and you don't see a reason why not.

Though, again, 150 people attending a LW meeting is far from the type of coordination this site will be for. i'm not blind to the fact we have better coordination tools than going door-to-door and talking to people - i say that the coordination tools we have today aren't sufficient for more complicated coordination - where there are a lot of people involved, several types of actors, many incentives, etc...

2. maybe you're right. still, it's worth a try and a little effort :)

3. that wasn't my reaction for doing an MVP, but reasoning for a platform being good, and saying that google forms isn't a platform (more specifically, it isn't a platform for coordinating action, but a more general platform, so it can't be trusted as one)

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-11T13:07:08.582Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Could you fund a video game with google forms? (assuming it has a PayPal widget, if needed)

There are three main problems i see with google forms.

First, i think it'll be harder to get people on board, much harder to get many people on board, and much harder still to do it consistently.

Second, there's probably a high value to a system that ensures (or at least makes it more probable) that someone who obligated to take an action actually took it. if you don't have such a system, then whatever you did, you're arguably almost in the starting same position. everyone might still be suspicious that no one else will take action, and so nobody will take it.

the third connects to the second, but may be different enough - A platform could gain trust. not only would i not fund a video game through google forms, i may not even want to fund it through certain kickstarter-like sites, cause i don't trust them as i trust kickstarter.

That's not getting into functionality that to me seems important.

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-11T12:57:04.522Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

yes, I agree that both of these are also large problems of coordination that aren't solved by collective action. we will need to find ways to do all of these better.

Comment by yoav-ravid on Plans are Recursive & Why This is Important · 2019-03-11T05:37:16.290Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Luckily i'm Israeli so i got that ;)

Comment by yoav-ravid on Plans are Recursive & Why This is Important · 2019-03-10T08:26:41.191Z · score: 7 (5 votes) · LW · GW

The post was very clear to understand, and the graphics were spot-on (would even be fine to leave just the graphic trees without the text trees).

I actually done something very similar to that a few days ago. I wrote down on a peace of paper a few things i knew are important to me, and than analyzed them - thought how do they relate to each other, what might be higher than them, and how might i break them down. than i also connected each breakdown to other higher level goals that could be benefited from achieving it.

After doing it i got to a conclusion that there are two shorter-term goals that are most beneficial for me right now.

This is basically a 'technical' explanation of the "start with the end in mind" principle, which i try to use often. hopefully you gave me another way to think about it which will be useful.

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-09T21:38:58.186Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I haven't said IE claimed that, but that "getting people to take an action simultaneously is a central problem that has to be solved", and he does hint at a kickstarter-like site for coordination, so it's not far fetched from the book.

pay attention that i did give examples of more complicated 'contracts' than "everybody takes action X". the more the site evolves the more options it will have. but that still doesn't reach project management level. it's simple, but not too simple to not be useful.

of course there are ways for humans to cooperate at larger numbers than 150, or else we wouldn't have modern society. or any society for that matter. I meant that it's hard for humans to do it with some kinds of social structures. but it's not so important, we can leave it aside (the important bit isn't the number, but the notion that the more people, the more coordination gets difficult).

I think the minimum viable project is much more than google forms (no need to even bother if it doesn't get better than Facebook and Twitter). and actually there is a similar site, but for me it also doesn't reach minimum viable product. most of what i described in the post is what i think should part of the minimum viable product.

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-09T15:13:47.722Z · score: 5 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Well, i wrote this article with that premise without justifying it as it's generally accepted on lesswrong. as i said, it's based on problems from game theory that we know also happen many times in real life, and on yudkowsky's book inadequate equilibria.

the structure of the site doesn't require you to commit to results, but to actions. if we're taking your example, then the bureaucrat commits to do certain actions (probably ones that are believed to be helpful in getting a permit), not on actually getting it.

but it's not actually a good example for what this site would be about. it's not about small groups or complex projects, but about simple actions taken by a lot of people. humans can coordinate effectively in groups of up to roughly 150 people, above that it doesn't work as great. If you want to see better examples, look at this post.

But here a tailored example for you -

Say you have a organization with the goal of making the scientific process better, for most of your work (research, discussions, negotiating, surveys, etc) you don't use this site. but when you want to implement the solutions you found, you find that it's quite hard, there are many gears in the mechanism (researchers, grant-makers, journals...), and one won't change with out the other changing too, at the same time. so you open a coordinated action on this website, something simple and not output-based, and people commit. if enough people committed, they all take the action at the same time. much less effort and strain, instead, you can smoother transitions.

Of course i can't promise that it works that way, and i can't quantify beforehand how beneficial it'll be, but to me it seems promising.

Comment by yoav-ravid on Are there documentaries on rationality? · 2019-03-09T12:20:51.293Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Are there documentaries about effective altruism?

Comment by yoav-ravid on April 2013 Media Thread · 2019-03-09T08:59:21.196Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW
And I wrote this paragraph beforehand--I haven't edited it since.

After reading your comment, i recently read the book (was great! thanks) and really looked for that line and haven't seen it, did nick remove it in a later version?

Comment by yoav-ravid on Alignment Research Field Guide · 2019-03-09T07:50:20.221Z · score: 7 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I will say that i didn't continue reading after the first section (for the reasons specified in it), but it was an awesome introduction!

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-08T18:08:28.949Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

than it seems i haven't explained myself good enough.

I didn't mean that you create a project or some long term goal, and ask people to commit to the whole plan thinking that this will be the solution.

Rather that you open a new coordinated action for each action that you want to be taken simultaneously (or a small bundle of action that need to be obligated to together). no need to try to foresee the future and pre-plan everything ahead.

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-08T18:02:44.591Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yeah, i know, but i already got comments and it was done enough to keep it public.

thanks anyway!

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-08T18:00:29.812Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I don't think i have an answer to your question, but something related that i thought of, was to have a guide with game theory and behavioral economics to coordinating actions on the site, and maybe even a team that helps people optimize their CAs.

did you have specific thoughts when you asked that question? I'd be glad to hear them

Comment by yoav-ravid on Ideas for an action coordination website · 2019-03-08T17:54:10.687Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I can see the sense in what you're saying, here's where I'm coming from -

I'm aiming to open up as much possibilities for coordination, so i also want communities to be very versatile (When a CA is made for a community you're a part of you get notified).

I expect most communities to not being very active (most don't try to initiate massive changes all the time). you probably won't have to devote attention only to some and not be able to afford attention to the rest.

now, think of all the communities a person is actually a part of, not just the ones he identifies with - through your geography, workplace, hobbies, lifestyle, areas of interest, social circle, and maybe more - it becomes quite a bit (but In second thought i might have went up too much with saying "upwards of hundreds", it's a little hard to quantify before actually doing it). and still, all of these can be important for you (and you for the communities), at certain times and for certain actions. think of it as trying to have a community map that matches the community territory. I think that more resemblance will open more possibilities, thus making it a more powerful tool.

Another thing i thought of is to let users rank communities by their activeness or how important it is to them. and that will both change what they're notified of in the community, and shown to other members in that community, so it's easier to know who's in the community's core.

So to answer your last paragraph - I don't think everyone who's going to commit to a CA has to be familiar with other members of the community (It depends on the situation), eg Vegans may join a CA with other vegans even if they're not into activism. I think the second question is interesting but a bit more complicated. for the last two questions - a lot of the trust should come from the structure of the website (like in KickStarter), else you don't only rule out many communities, but also large communities.

What you made me think of, is how much other tools should this website give to communities, since they already exist on it

Comment by yoav-ravid on Is there an assurance-contract website in work? · 2019-03-08T17:13:10.720Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Done :)

Ideas for an action coordination website

2019-03-08T13:32:06.756Z · score: 16 (9 votes)

What i learned giving a lecture on NVC

2019-02-20T09:08:58.441Z · score: 6 (4 votes)

Is there an assurance-contract website in work?

2019-02-20T06:14:00.633Z · score: 9 (5 votes)

Are there documentaries on rationality?

2019-02-14T11:34:51.624Z · score: 12 (3 votes)

Stale air / high CO2 may decrease your cognitive function

2019-01-22T12:52:06.070Z · score: 12 (10 votes)

What math do i need for data analysis?

2019-01-19T10:08:28.398Z · score: 13 (4 votes)

Critical Thinking in Medicine

2019-01-15T15:09:42.716Z · score: 4 (2 votes)

this Website uses Bayesian networks to evaluate claims - RootClaim

2019-01-12T14:46:43.860Z · score: 9 (9 votes)

What are the axioms of rationality?

2018-12-25T06:47:54.363Z · score: 2 (5 votes)