What are good alternatives to Predictionbook for personal prediction tracking? Edited: I originally thought it was down but it was just 500 until I though of clearing cookies.

post by sortega · 2023-04-07T19:18:35.536Z · LW · GW · No comments

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    2 Sinclair Chen
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answer by Sinclair Chen · 2023-04-07T21:44:09.715Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

predictionbook.com looks up to me

↑ comment by sortega · 2023-04-07T22:49:48.519Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I was getting a 500 error every time I tried to load it. I've deleted my cookies and I can use it again. Thanks for the nudge!

However, even if PB is working, I would like to know about alternatives because it feels too clunky and usability is kind of poor.

Replies from: sinclair-chen
↑ comment by Sinclair Chen (sinclair-chen) · 2023-04-10T10:51:23.124Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Try manifold.markets (disclosure: i work there). It’s a bit different - instead of just logging predictions, the questions you make are prediction markets that you and other people can bet on with virtual points. There is a calibration graph based on your bets, though i find the profit graph more useful.

What do you use mainly prediction book for? What are you trying to accomplish?

Replies from: sortega
↑ comment by sortega · 2023-04-16T13:29:53.577Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

My main use case for prediction book are private personal predictions and, secondarily, predictions for a small group, also private. I think using markets for the group predictions is also a good fit but AFAIK there are no private groups in manifold yet.

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