[LINK] Neil deGrasse Tyson on killer asteroids

post by David_Gerard · 2012-04-03T18:32:15.520Z · LW · GW · Legacy · 14 comments

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14 comments

LessWrong is not big on discussion of non-AI existential risks. But Neil deGrasse Tyson notes killer asteroids not just as a generic problem, but as a specific one, naming Apophis as an imminent hazard.

So treat this as your exercise for today: what are the numbers, what is the risk, what are the costs, what actions are appropriate? Assume your answers need to work in the context of a society that's responded to the notion of anthropogenic climate change with almost nothing but blue vs. green politics.

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comment by CarlShulman · 2012-04-03T20:50:35.631Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

This is a red herring: even if Apophis hits (current estimates 1-in-many-thousands for 2036), it's tiny, too small to be an existential risk (see wikipedia quote below), to a first and second approximation. Asteroid risk comes from the chance of huge impacts, the 1 in 100 million years variety. Spending several million dollars on tracking asteroids (we have found 90%+ of such big asteroids) was a great use of money by most standards, but you get diminishing returns as you move along. From an x-risk point of view, my take is that we should continue surveillance, and in the very unlikely event of spotting a huge asteroid on a dangerous path we should obviously mobilize much of our civilization to deflecting it.

From a public health point of view, concerned only with current people and valuing rich country folk at hundreds or thousands of times the value of poor-country folk, much larger expenditures are warranted, but that's not an existential risk issue, by and large.

NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it struck Earth as the equivalent of 1480 megatons of TNT. A later, more refined NASA estimate was 880 megatons, then revised to 510 megatons.[3] The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 3–10 megaton range.[25] The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons and the biggest hydrogen bomb ever exploded, the Tsar Bomba, was around 50 megatons. In comparison, the Chicxulub impact, believed by many to be a significant factor in the extinction of the dinosaurs, has been estimated to have released about as much energy as 100,000,000 megatons (100 Teratons).

comment by thespymachine · 2012-04-03T21:00:03.021Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Waiting until after the "2012 prediction" is behind us would be best. It seems most people can't incorporate both the Mayan End of Days and climate change into their future plans and goals, so adding a third 'hoaxable' problem to Earth's future won't help.

With that said, I can see society accepting a killer asteroid over climate change - since the science for the latter is more abstract than "hey look at this asteroid coming right at us."

End of the World movies and books are overdone, so there wouldn't be a need to break the ice to the public through popular media. I think it would be safe to simply state the danger directly.

It seems fear would drive some people to insane things, but enough people to be driven to help the situation, ie. agreeing to help fund, through taxes, research and operation of a mission to divert a killer asteroid.

comment by timtyler · 2012-04-04T17:05:44.636Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The article says:

If humans one day become extinct from a catastrophic collision, we would be the laughing stock of aliens in the galaxy, for having a large brain and a space program, yet we met the same fate as that pea-brained, space program-less dinosaurs that came before us.

More likely they would appreciate that we had more important stuff to get on with - and happened to be the victims of exceptionally bad luck.

Replies from: Luke_A_Somers
comment by Luke_A_Somers · 2012-04-05T06:55:35.718Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

No, I don't think that's how they'd view an unwillingness to set aside a miniscule fraction of our resources to prevent absolute destruction.

Replies from: timtyler
comment by timtyler · 2012-04-05T13:53:21.536Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Well, it depends on the details. We face other more pressing risks than asteroid strikes - and we do already allocate some resources to preventing such strikes - that's part of how we know what the risks are.

Obliteration doesn't prove negligence - it's a risky universe out there.

comment by Oligopsony · 2012-04-03T19:13:07.762Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

On an outside view asteroids seem like an astronomically (har har har) unlikely way to go, since the Earth's been around a long time and has only received a few extinction-impact asteroids. (Anthropic considerations should discount the likelihood of asteroids that would wipe out all life on Earth, but not ones that just rearrange it like KT.)

comment by Dan_Moore · 2012-04-04T19:29:29.945Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The chances that your tombstone will read “Killed by Asteroid” are about the same as they’d be for “Killed in Airplane Crash.”

Don't think so, Neil, given that thousands have been killed in airplane crashes, vs. 0 known persons killed by asteroid strikes, despite the exposure being greater in the case of asteroids.

Replies from: gwern
comment by gwern · 2012-04-04T19:32:33.411Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

That so?

Replies from: Dan_Moore
comment by Dan_Moore · 2012-04-05T14:00:40.546Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Yes, that's so. First, note that meteorite <> asteroid. Got any reports of a person killed by an asteroid strike?

Replies from: gwern
comment by gwern · 2012-04-05T14:17:58.729Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I can't believe you're seriously arguing terminology in response to my cite.

But OK, if you want to play that game... what is an asteroid that survives to reach the ground and kill someone?

Replies from: Dan_Moore, Dan_Moore
comment by Dan_Moore · 2012-04-23T21:01:26.216Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

There was a meteor showerover the wekend. Fortunately, there wasn't an asteroid shower.

Replies from: gwern
comment by gwern · 2012-04-23T21:11:54.495Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The Geminids are noted for their intensity, as many as 130 meters an hour, making them more intense than even the Perseids. The Geminids are also the offspring of an asteroid rather than a comet.

comment by Dan_Moore · 2012-04-05T14:41:40.928Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

But OK, if you want to play that game... what is an asteroid that survives to reach the ground and kill someone?

A historically unprecedented event?

This article describes the properties of asteroids vs. meteorites.

Collisions between asteroids in space create smaller asteroidal fragments and these fragments are the sources of most meteorites that have struck the Earth's surface.

Replies from: gwern
comment by gwern · 2012-04-05T15:24:49.910Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

So you wish to explain away all those reports of deaths as due solely 100% to meteorites rather than asteroids? I see...