Recent updates to gwern.net (2014-2015)post by gwern · 2015-11-02T00:06:11.241Z · score: 21 (22 votes) · LW · GW · Legacy · 3 comments
“Receive my instruction, and not silver; and knowledge rather than choice gold. / For wisdom is better than rubies; and all the things that may be desired are not to be compared to it.”
Sorted by topic:
Darknet market related:
- Darknet Market archives, 2011-2015: 1.5tb of mirrors of scores of Tor-Bitcoin black-markets & forums 2013-2015, and other material; this is the single largest public archive of all DNM materials, and creating it was a major focus of mine since December 2013. The release also marks the end of my career as DNM expert - I’ve lost interest in the topic due to the apparent stability of the DNMs & being trapped in a local equilibrium
- DNM arrests compilation: a census of all known arrests Jan 2011-June 2015
- “Silk Goxed: How DPR used MtGox for hedging & lost big”
- there was an ICE subpoena on my Reddit account
Statistics & decision theory:
- When Does The Mail Come? A subjective Bayesian decision-theoretic analysis of local mail delivery times
resortertool for statistically re-ranking a set of ratings
- analysis of Effective Altruists’ donations as reported in the LW survey
- anthology on how “everything is correlated”
- electric vs stove kettle boiling-time analysis: collected some simple data on my kettles & demonstrated some statistics tools on the dataset like a Bayesian measurement-error model
- dysgenics power analysis: how much genetic data would it take to falsify those claims?
- noisy polls: modeling potentially falsified poll data
- Value of Information for suicide (example cost-benefit analysis of weakly predicting suicide)
- Air conditioner upgrade cost-benefit analysis
- probability/gerontology problem: can one visit 566 centenarians before any die? No.
- do causal networks explain why correlation≠causation is so often true?
- a little example of estimating scores from censored data
- 2015 modafinil community survey (not quite finished)
- Bitter Melon experimental & cost-benefit analysis
- Redshift self-experiment: screen-reddening software shifts bedtime forward by 20 minutes
- magnesium citrate experiment finished: initial benefits but apparent cumulative overdose led to net negative effect and mixed effects on sleep
- playing with inferring Bayesian networks for my Zeo & body weight data (powerful generalization of SEMs, but requires a lot of data before networks stabilize)
- Nootropics: initial results on LLLT correlated with large increases; but the followup randomized experiment showed zero effect
- LLLT re-analysis: no change in sleep as hypothesized by another LLLT user
- analysis of sceaduwe’s spirulina/allergies self-experiment (no reduction in allergies)
- Noopept experiment (no benefits)
- Treadmill spaced repetition experiment: expanded analysis to cover treadmill’s impact on successive reviews with SEM (no additional damage to recall beyond that implied by the original damage)
- lithium orotate experiment finished: no effects positive or negative
- “Effective Use of arbtt”: My window tracker/time-logger of choice is arbtt which records X window info for later classification and analysis; but one of the challenges is you don’t know how to set up arbtt or improve your environment or write classifications rules. So I wrote a tutorial.
- Time-lock crypto: wrote a Bash implementation of serial hashing time-lock crypto, link to all known implementations of hash time-lock crypto; discuss recent major theoretical breakthroughs involving Bitcoin
- Bicycle face
- “Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.”
- did Fifty Shades of Gray have only 4k readers as the original Twilight fanfiction?
- switched to Patreon for donations
- continued sending out my newsletter; up to 24 issues now
gwern.netCSS to be mobile-friendly; should now be readable in an iPhone 6 browser
- optimized website loading (removed Custom Search Engine, A/B testing, non-validating XML, outbound link-tracking; simplified Disqus; minified JS, and fully async/deferred JS loading)
- proposal towards recurrent neural network for reinforcement learning of CSS
- metadata test: indicates moving it from the sidebar to the top of page works as well
- indentation test: no real result, defaulted to 2em
- floating footnotes test: verified no apparent harm (as hoped)
- paragraph indentation test (responding to anonymous complaint; they were wrong)
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