The Unexpected Philosophical Depths of the Clicker Game Universal Paperclips 2019-03-28T23:39:28.461Z
Explanations of deontological responses to moral dilemmas 2017-04-10T03:43:57.398Z
PredictIt, a prediction market out of New Zealand, now in beta. 2015-03-16T02:02:14.126Z
Learn (and Maybe Get a Credential in) Data Science 2014-02-01T18:39:25.445Z
Meetup : Tempe, AZ: How to Measure Anything II 2013-11-01T16:24:55.602Z
Meetup : Tempe, AZ: How to Measure Anything I 2013-10-24T19:36:50.073Z
Meetup : Tempe, AZ (ASU) 2013-09-27T03:58:05.831Z
[Link] Bets, Portfolios, and Belief Revelation 2013-07-01T16:17:28.542Z
[Link] Caplan asks for help optimizing his will. 2013-04-30T02:12:51.663Z
Rationality Quotes March 2013 2013-03-02T10:45:48.626Z
Open Thread, March 1-15, 2013 2013-03-01T12:00:44.477Z
[Link] How Signaling Ossifies Behavior 2013-01-21T14:06:41.557Z
[Link] Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple 2012-10-10T08:11:30.369Z
[Poll] Less Wrong and Mainstream Philosophy: How Different are We? 2012-09-26T12:25:48.899Z
Rationality Quotes September 2012 2012-09-03T05:18:17.003Z
[Link] Nick Bostrom on the Status Quo Bias 2012-06-17T10:51:56.817Z
Meetup : Phoenix, Arizona 2012-05-01T06:31:41.895Z
PredictionBook: Feature Request and Bug Report 2012-01-20T09:20:59.786Z
Rationality Quotes December 2011 2011-12-02T06:01:27.343Z
PredictionBook: A Short Note 2011-11-10T15:10:28.480Z
Rationality Quotes November 2011 2011-11-01T18:28:38.290Z
[Link] Philip Pettit on Consequentialism 2011-09-17T08:13:59.743Z
[Link] Nick Bostrom on the Simulation Argument 2011-08-14T19:15:35.087Z
Bayesianism versus Critical Rationalism 2011-01-10T04:54:45.706Z


Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Welcome to Less Wrong! (2012) · 2021-05-06T21:47:58.869Z · LW · GW

Actually, several of the chapters of this book are very likely completely wrong and the rest are on shakier foundations than I believed 9 years ago (similar to other works of social psychology that accurately reported typical expert views at the time). See here for further elaboration.

I'm on the fence about recommending this book now, but please read skeptically if you do choose to read it.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Defending the non-central fallacy · 2021-03-11T16:30:47.463Z · LW · GW

I agree with your point about there being at least two distinct ways to interpret the non-central fallacy, and also the OPs point that while ad hominem arguments are technically invalid, they can be of high inductive strength in some circumstances. I'm mostly critiquing Scott's choice of examples for introducing the non-central fallacy, since mixing it with other fallacious forms of reasoning makes it harder to see what the non-central part is contributing to the mistake being made. For this reason, the theft example is preferred by me.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Defending the non-central fallacy · 2021-03-10T23:10:59.276Z · LW · GW

I think the Martin Luther King scenario is a particularly bad example for explaining the non-central fallacy, because it depends on a conjunction of fallacies, rather than isolating the non-central part. The inference from (1) MLK does/doesn't fit some category with negative emotional valence, to (2) his ideas are bad just is the ad hominem fallacy (which is distinct from the non-central fallacy). The truth (or falsity) of Bloch's theorem is logically independent of whether or not André Bloch was a murder (which he was).

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Making Vaccine · 2021-02-05T16:52:40.881Z · LW · GW

Does this add you to an email list where discussion is happening, or merely put you on a map so that others in the area can reach out to you on an ad hoc basis?

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on How Hard Would It Be To Make A COVID Vaccine For Oneself? · 2020-12-24T21:20:49.910Z · LW · GW

I asked around about this on the ##hplusroadmap irc channel:

15:59 < Jayson_Virissimo> Yeah, sorry. Was much more interested in the claim about peptide sourcing specifically. 
16:00 < Jayson_Virissimo> Is that 4-5 weeks duration normal? How flexible is it, if at all? 
16:01 < yashgaroth> some of them might offer expedited service, though I've never had cause to find out when ordering peptides and am not bothered to check...and it'd save you a week or two at most 
16:02 < Jayson_Virissimo> What would you guess as to the main cause? Does it really take that long to manufacture or is it slow to ship, or is there some legal check that happens that isn't instantaneous? 
16:04 < yashgaroth> the legal check isn't an issue, though I'm sure all the major synthesis houses are aware of the Radvac peptide sequences and may hassle you about them - especially if you're not ordering as a company...shipping's not a problem since overnight is standard, so I'd say manufacturing time combined with the people ahead of you in the queue 
16:04 < yashgaroth> and manufacturing includes purification, which is an important step for something you're ingesting, even if you're just snorting a line of it 
16:07 < Jayson_Virissimo> yashgaroth: do the labs have any legal risk of their own if you are ordering something like Radvac sequences as a private person, or are they "hassling you for your own good"? 
16:09 < yashgaroth> nah they're usually okay legally on their end, though most of them won't risk selling a small quantity to an individual since 'plausible deniability' wears a little thin on their end when you're buying sequences that match the Radvac ones

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on How Hard Would It Be To Make A COVID Vaccine For Oneself? · 2020-12-23T21:45:09.349Z · LW · GW

Are there any English language sources where I could learn more about the legal issues surrounding human experimentation in Russia such as the one you mentioned?

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on How Hard Would It Be To Make A COVID Vaccine For Oneself? · 2020-12-23T21:43:10.664Z · LW · GW

What explains the 4-5 weeks delivery time for special lab peptide synthesis?

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on The rationalist community's location problem · 2020-09-24T18:54:31.634Z · LW · GW

Mati_Roy makes the case for Phoenix here.

Full Disclosure: I'm in Phoenix.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Leslie's Firing Squad Can't Save The Fine-Tuning Argument · 2020-09-10T06:55:09.868Z · LW · GW

A similar "measure function is non-normalizable" argument is made at length in McGrew, T., McGrew, L., & Vestrup, E. (2001). Probabilities and the Fine-Tuning Argument: A Sceptical View. Mind, 110(440), 1027-1037.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Open & Welcome Thread - July 2020 · 2020-07-19T05:59:45.862Z · LW · GW

I've been working on an interactive flash card app to supplement classical homeschooling called Boethius. It uses a spaced-repetition algorithm to economize on the students time and currently has exercises for (Latin) grammar, arithmetic, and astronomy.

Let me know what you think!

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Science eats its young · 2020-07-12T23:28:05.037Z · LW · GW

Do you happen to know where he discusses this idea?

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Situating LessWrong in contemporary philosophy: An interview with Jon Livengood · 2020-07-03T04:06:03.744Z · LW · GW

Good call, I'll link to it from the poll.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Situating LessWrong in contemporary philosophy: An interview with Jon Livengood · 2020-07-01T20:02:11.964Z · LW · GW

Suspended Reason: you may find this philosophy poll of LWers from 8 years ago interesting. The poll results no longer render (as of the 2.0 reboot of LW), but the raw data can be found in this git repo.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Jimrandomh's Shortform · 2020-04-14T20:41:09.250Z · LW · GW

Ah, yes: their headline is very misleading then! It currently reads "The coronavirus did not escape from a lab. Here's how we know."

I'll shoot the editor an email and see if they can correct it.

EDIT: Here's me complaining about the headline on Twitter.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Jimrandomh's Shortform · 2020-04-14T20:30:57.836Z · LW · GW

Not sure if you have seen this yet, but they conclude:

Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus...

Are they assuming a false premise or making an error in reasoning somewhere?

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Zeynep Tufekci on Why Telling People They Don't Need Masks Backfired · 2020-03-30T21:00:06.509Z · LW · GW

No, lying seems to have a short term cost as well, since in the places where mask wearing is encouraged people are creating homemade masks (and donating their N95s to hospitals).

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Where can we donate time and money to avert coronavirus deaths? · 2020-03-27T05:03:01.982Z · LW · GW is an informational website about the coronavirus with (as of this comment) over one million visitors. It has since become open source and is hosted on GitHub here.

Consider contributing to the project.

See here for a successful interaction involving the removal of an anti-mask wearing section (partially inspired by information obtained here on LessWrong).

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Where can we donate time and money to avert coronavirus deaths? · 2020-03-27T04:42:35.009Z · LW · GW

Whoops, I already created another "answer". Thanks, did not know about that feature.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Where can we donate time and money to avert coronavirus deaths? · 2020-03-27T00:17:38.945Z · LW · GW

My co-worker and her husband, partially backed by my current employer, have modified the design of a device invented in Taiwan for reducing the exposure of ER doctors/nurses to COVID-19. If you have basic fabrication skills you can build your own using the instructions here or else donate here to help them manufacture more to ship to hospitals already on their waiting list.

EDIT: Signal boosted by @RealSexyCyborg here.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Where can we donate time and money to avert coronavirus deaths? · 2020-03-27T00:16:52.377Z · LW · GW

My co-worker and her husband, partially backed by my current employer, have modified the design of a device invented in Taiwan for reducing the exposure of ER doctors/nurses to COVID-19. If you have basic fabrication skills you can build your own using the instructions here or else donate here to help them manufacture more to ship to hospitals already on their waiting list.

EDIT: I meant this to be a new answer, not a comment.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Zeynep Tufekci on Why Telling People They Don't Need Masks Backfired · 2020-03-22T04:26:51.853Z · LW · GW

I've been trying to get to remove their anti-mask section here, but it's been stalled for 5 days now.

EDIT: They merged my anti-mask section removal. We are collaborating on a pro-mask section now.

EDIT2: There is now a pro-mask section.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Credibility of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2 · 2020-03-10T00:23:29.045Z · LW · GW

I've been away for some time. Any idea what posts he's talking about here?

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Credibility of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2 · 2020-03-09T23:36:17.511Z · LW · GW
The administration refutes the claim.

I think we should say "the administration denies the claim".

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-09T03:35:45.404Z · LW · GW

I’ve been keeping notes on corona virus risk reduction tactics and turned some of them into a webpage to share with my family and friends. The idea to to make them as quickly actionable/understandable as possible. This is the pretty version, but you can contribute here.

I'm very interested in critical feedback, including if any of these tactics are likely to be harmful/ineffective or if I'm missing anything high-value/low-cost.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on How to fly safely right now? · 2020-03-04T00:26:08.403Z · LW · GW
Unclear how to get something small enough to go through security. Perhaps it can be bought in the airport though?

Liquids that are in containers that are 100ml (3.4 ounces) or less are allowed past security checkpoints in Europe and North America, so look for a hand-sanitizer bottle that meets that criterion. Here is some evidence for this claim.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on What is the evidence for productivity benefits of weightlifting? · 2019-06-02T20:43:35.892Z · LW · GW

There is some indirect evidence that weightlifting improves productivity, assuming that cognition is an important determinate of productivity.

For example, a recent meta-study, Lifting cognition: a meta-analysis of effects of resistance exercise on cognition by Jon-Frederick Landrigan, Tyler Bell, Michael Crowe, Olivio J. Clay, Daniel Mirman, reports that:

Results revealed positive effects of resistance training on composite cognitive scores (SMD 0.71, 95% CI 0.30-1.12), screening measures of cognitive impairment (SMD 1.28, 95% CI 0.39-2.18), and executive functions (SMD 0.39, 95% CI 0.04-0.74), but no effect on measures of working memory (SMD 0.151, 95% CI - 0.21 to 0.51).
Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Rest Days vs Recovery Days · 2019-04-21T04:31:26.769Z · LW · GW

Saturday seems to be the canonical answer, but opinions vary.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on If a "Kickstarter for Inadequate Equlibria" was built, do you have a concrete inadequate equilibrium to fix? · 2019-04-06T04:14:04.054Z · LW · GW

Why Phoenix? (I live in Phoenix, BTW)

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Which textbook would you recommend to learn decision theory? · 2019-04-03T03:37:41.953Z · LW · GW

An Introduction to Decision Theory by Martin Peterson is a good first introduction to the fundamental principles of decision theory as well as the strengths and weaknesses of causal vs evidential decision theory (it doesn't get into the more exotic theories, although it does contain a chapter on social choice).

It also contains exercises to ensure basic mastery of the concepts, but only assumes a background of algebra and probability.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on The Very Repugnant Conclusion · 2019-01-21T01:36:22.656Z · LW · GW

Offing those with low wellbeing increases average wellbeing.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Introducing the Longevity Research Institute · 2018-12-15T05:22:36.942Z · LW · GW

Are there any kinds of help you are open to receiving besides monetary donations?

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on We can all be high status · 2018-10-11T02:25:50.827Z · LW · GW

A much earlier post by David Friedman makes similar points:

This point was originally made clear to me when I was an undergraduate at Harvard and realized that Harvard had, in at least one interesting way, the perfect social system: Everyone at the top of his own ladder. The small minority of students passionately interested in drama knew perfectly well that they were the most important people at the university; everyone else was there to provide them with an audience. The small minority passionately interested in politics knew that they were the most important ones; their friends were there to be herded into meetings of the Young Republicans and Young Democrats in order to get them elected to positions in those organizations that were the stepping stones to further political success...
Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on The Rocket Alignment Problem · 2018-10-05T22:37:17.658Z · LW · GW

That would break the rule of "show, don't tell" of fiction writing, but working that into the story more explicitly would help, I agree.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Moderation Reference · 2018-09-14T22:46:57.517Z · LW · GW

It sounds like principle of charity is a better match for your intended meaning than steelman.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Advances in Baby Formula · 2018-09-10T18:05:47.789Z · LW · GW
Then there's the issue that sicker babies often have to be formula fed...

Why do you believe this? My son is currently in the NICU (born at 25 weeks), and they push breast-feeding extremely hard, even going as far as to make it sound like negligence if you don't attempt to breastfeed (due to higher incidences of NEC in premies, among other reasons). Babies whose mothers can't breastfeed are supplied with donor milk, not formula. When my first son was born (who wasn't a premie or otherwise sick), the nurses and doctors talked as if it were just a matter of personal preference.

My experience could be unrepresentative though, so I'd love to see some kind of justification for the above-quoted claim.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Open Thread August 2018 · 2018-08-07T17:03:50.805Z · LW · GW

The use of 'self-conscious' to refer to having knowledge of yourself as a conscious being isn't unique to LW, but is borrowed from philosophy. Blame the philosophers I say!

Anyway, they could have chosen to come up with a new term instead of using the not-most widely (but still commonly) used definition of 'self-conscious', but that would mean even more LW-specific jargon (which is also heavily criticized). It's not at all clear to me whether pushing towards greater jargon usage would be an improvement in general.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on The Fermi Paradox: What did Sandberg, Drexler and Ord Really Dissolve? · 2018-07-09T05:22:31.755Z · LW · GW

Quine categorized paradoxes into veridical (apparently absurd, but actually true), falsidical (seemingly contradictory, because they actually do assume something false or use an invalid step somewhere), and antinomy (self-contradiction from true premises using only valid steps [arguably there are no such things]). I find these categories to be helpful for improving communication about such things.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Are ethical asymmetries from property rights? · 2018-07-02T03:33:29.672Z · LW · GW

Testable implication: communities that strongly emphasize upholding property conventions will contain more individuals that share these intuitions, while communities that do not will contain individuals that share fewer.

Don't you agree?

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Oops on Commodity Prices · 2018-06-14T06:06:45.870Z · LW · GW

muflax was the first user I know of that used epistemic status tags.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on A Rationalist Argument for Voting · 2018-06-07T23:57:21.714Z · LW · GW

Something brought up originally, but never really dealt with: this argument applies a fortiori to lobbying.

Would the defenders of these kinds of consequentialist arguments for voting also recommend effective altruists become lobbyists? It seems there is some tension there if they don't, or else I am (or they are) confused about the implications of the premises in that argument.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Fundamentals of Formalisation level 2: Basic Set Theory · 2018-05-20T00:38:57.357Z · LW · GW

Hypothesis: many more people would sign up for this course if there were a way to sample the content before signing up (given that the course material is good).

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on URL transfer complete, data import will run for the next few hours · 2018-03-23T03:43:56.166Z · LW · GW

It's working for me using the password that was created after migrating to LW 2.0, but it looks like it's HTTP-only right now. Will SSL/TLS be set up at some point?

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Request for "Tests" for the MIRI Research Guide · 2018-03-16T00:06:22.331Z · LW · GW
2. Probability

The Society of Actuaries has a standardized test covering this topic.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Extended Quote on the Institution of Academia · 2018-03-12T21:58:44.549Z · LW · GW

I'm not sure if it's what cousin_it had in mind, but here's an example: Rather than visiting a doctor again for the same bad advice on how to treat my plantar fasciitis, I paid this guy for (what is essentially) a literature review of the current state of the scientific evidence as to the relative effectiveness of available treatments.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Extended Quote on the Institution of Academia · 2018-03-12T21:52:59.507Z · LW · GW

Many masters degrees have thesis and non-thesis tracks. What if PhD programs had a track for searchers (equivalent to currently existing PhDs) and separate tracks for replicators and distillers? They could even have different (by still positive) stereotypical virtues (like creativity, rigor, and clarity, respectively).

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Rationalist Lent · 2018-02-14T02:58:48.655Z · LW · GW

I'll be putting my smartphone in airplane mode everyday from 21-09. I expect that this may reduce my stress levels and improve sleep, but I'm only tracking the latter.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Pseudo-Rationality · 2018-02-06T17:44:08.922Z · LW · GW

Back in 2014, I posted some tweets with the #skepticfailuremodes hashtag that are similar to your examples of "psuedo rationality", some of which were:

  1. Thinking it is virtuous to assign low probabilities, forgetting this implies high probabilities for the negation.
  2. Ignoring an argument after finding a deductive fallacy, even when it can be easily restated as an strong inductive one.
  3. Increasing evidential standards for out-group claims; decreasing it for in-group claims.
Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on [deleted post] 2017-10-12T20:20:28.051Z

I had exactly the same reaction: the inferential distance between me and my childhood friends completely dwarfs that between me and the typical member of the coding bootcamp I attended in San Francisco, with whom I share almost none of those features.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Different Worlds · 2017-10-08T21:42:50.688Z · LW · GW

(Crossposted from the SSC comment thread)

Many years ago, I worked a security job that involved selecting some people for “additional screening”. We were issued a mechanical pseudorandom number generator. Essentially, you would click the button each time someone would come through the checkpoint. After some (non-constant) number of clicks, it would have a different readout that is supposed to prompt you to select the next person in line for additional screening. We were also instructed to never tell the public how they are selected.

The majority of the time, the person selected was a member of the majority demographic category in the region in which we were operating (as would be expected). They would be selected, shrug, and say something along the lines of “I guess it’s my lucky day”. Much more rarely, someone would get selected from a minority group. A fraction of these people would say something along the lines of “Oh, what a surprise, you picked the #{minority class/race/etc…} person” and be visibly agitated. At the time, I wondered how many of these incidents got recounted to others as clear instances of discrimination, not knowing that the result was determined by a dumb clicker.

Comment by Jayson_Virissimo on Self-conscious ideology · 2017-06-29T04:44:25.085Z · LW · GW

You've already been scooped. The "research programme" that Lakatos talks about was designed to synthesize the views of Kuhn and Popper, but Kuhn himself modeled his revolutionary science after constitutional crises, and his paradigm shifts after political revolutions (and, perhaps more annoyingly to scientists, religious conversions). Also, part of what was so controversial (at the time) about Kuhn, was the prominence he gave to non-epistemic (normative, aesthetic, and even nationalistic) factors in the history of science.