How much should I worry about the Atlanta Fed's GDP estimates?

post by Brendan Long (korin43) · 2025-03-04T02:03:58.835Z · LW · GW · No comments

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The Atlanta Fed is seemingly predicting -2.8% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025.

I've seen several people mention this on Twitter, but it doesn't seem to be discussed much beyond that, and the stock market seems pretty normal (S&P 500 down 2% in the last month).

Is this not really a useful signal? Or is the market under-reacting?

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answer by Anon User · 2025-03-04T06:21:55.454Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

This looks to be primarily about imports - that is, primarily taking into account Trump's new tariffs. I am guessing that Wall Street does not quite believe that Trump actually means it...

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