Hzn's Shortform

The Bills are 0/4 in recent playoff games against the Chiefs & also 0/4 in Super Bowls as a franchise; this is mostly a coincidence

But it's difficult to think about the former without also thinking about the latter. Unless you don't follow NFL.

From a paranormal perspective mental connections like this suggest causal connections such as a curse on the team. Supposedly a superstition can become a rational hyperstition if enough people believe.

From a common sense perspective the Bill's recent 0-4 record is concerning. The people saying no no no b/c p=0.125 or the games were so close -- they seem to be over correcting. The prior is not so concentrated around 50%. Also {the Chiefs are a superior playoff team} is supported by other pieces of evidence not just their 4-0 record against the Bills.

So the Bills are under a possible double hex -- a hyperstitious hex & also a purely rational doubt feedback induced hex

If the Bills win the Super Bowl next year I'm going to conclude that hyperstition is over rated. (Personally I don't expect them to get past the 1st round).

I've partly given up on LW. To be more precise I no longer see LW as an alternative to academic publishing or Arxiv in the way that I had hoped. My plan was posts that would have the substance of a solid academic paper but shorter & stylistically free. But LW is not the right place for such an experiment. The main problem is the emphasis on frequency/recency. Another is too much ideological clash/disconnect with the LW mainstream. But there are a few lighter pieces that I wrote but could not post b/c of rate limits. I will try to post these over the next few days or weeks. The 1st of these is below.

§ 1. LW has been enforcing rules it forgot to actually mention…

Even tho I've only been a registered user for 1.5 months, I have some sense of which posts are likely to be down voted

So prior to posting 2 such [LW · GW] posts [LW · GW] I tried to understand LW's automatic rate limit rules [LW · GW]

I reasoned that I would need some thing worse than -30 karma from the 2 posts for me to be rate limited [N0]. Even tho the posts are IMO relatively high quality I was expecting -6 to -3 karma for each based on ideological clash & over zealous {this is not themotte.org} style thinking. The posts did worse than expected (-6 & -12 = -22 karma for me [N1]) but still better than -30 so I was surprised to find I was rate limited. So I messaged the moderators.

Hzn: “Based on https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hHyYph9CcYfdnoC5j/auto-ratelimits [LW · GW] it's not at all clear to me why I'm rated limited. As of the time of this message, the karma from my last 20 comments or posts is +1 not -15 or less.”

Mod claims that I forgot to subtract karma from my own up votes

Hzn: “I've accounted for that. By my count I have +8 from my first 7 comments or posts & +1 from the next 20.”

Mod admits that there is a new rule which LW forgot to mention [N2]. The recently added “Last Post Karma” section.

Hzn: “Thanks for clarifying. On balance I'm satisfied with this.”

So at least the rules page has been updated!

N0. Actually this calculation was not quite correct but that's irrelevant to the story.

N1. As of 2025-01-25.

N2. How new I have no idea.

§ 2. Misc comments on LW's auto rate limit rules

On some level LW's auto rate limit rules for posts are reasonable. They reduce posts that LW's reader voters down vote but don't completely turn it off. Even the most heavily restricted user can post once per 4 weeks.

The rules for comments are more absurd. A user with recent karma of -5 could post any number of posts but only 1 comment per day. 1/day is way too low; this means it's impossible to post both a quick take & another comment in the same day.

It's unclear to what extent LW's reader voters know that their votes are silencing or unsilencing other users. Either way is problematic.

Slow pernicious harm? Basing auto rate limits on votes creates a mechanism for preferences to self amplify. Eg it's clear that I've been effectively censored [N2.3] for disagreeing with the LW mainstream on a lot of issues see this [EA · GW], this [LW · GW], this [LW · GW] & this [LW · GW]  [N2.5]. My guess is this is mostly done by a mediocre sort of reader voter [N3]. But the moderators are also responsible -- for enriching for a certain type of mediocre reader voter & implementing auto rate limits in a blind way.

One thing that's unclear is whether removing negative karma comments/posts affects auto rate limits. If I were 8 years younger I would probably be tempted to try this experiment.

What should LW do? I'll leave this up to LW's moderators. If Lightcone wants to hire me as an epistemic consultant my rate is $50000 for 2 weeks. I think that's not a bad deal.

Note -- If some one views me as a mediocre reader voter that's fine. This commentary loses value from ad hominem but gains it back as testimonial. You can choose one of the 2 horns.

N2.3. Rate limited + reduced visibility.

N2.5. As of 2025-01-29 -33 from these posts vs +34 from all other content.

N3. Knowledgeable reader voters are not necessarily any better. Almost by definition they know more arguments & counter arguments & it's not practical to preemptively address all of these. They've usually thought about the topic for longer & are often older leading to rampant WOBO ism [N4]. Diversity of mediocre users is helpful. Yet these users will be hit hard b/c of auto rate limits & vote strength & hence selectively vanish.

N4. The tendency to see all things as wrong, obvious, boring or old. Especially as it increases with age/experience.

§ 3. The point is not that LW sucks

LW may be bad for various reasons such as the generic reason [LW · GW] or particular [EA · GW] reasons [LW · GW]. But that's far beyond the scope of this quick take. LW can be good -- mental engagement, information on certain topics, it's relatively fun. The point of this post is 1) the failure of a particular project, 2) a story about auto rate limits & 3) commentary on auto rate limits.

Hzn