To know or not to know

post by arisAlexis (arisalexis) · 2025-01-27T13:17:33.672Z · LW · GW · 3 comments

Contents

  Live fast
  Catch the longevity escape velocity train
  Stoicism Principles
  Financial planning
  Avoiding normalcy bias
  Philosophical knowledge
  Arguments against
  Uncontrolled anxiety
  Social revolt and unpredictable outcomes
  Influencers
  Local events
  What else?
  Why am I writing this?
  Negative
  Positive
None
3 comments

We are on the brink of the unimaginable. Humanity is about to cross a threshold that will redefine life as we know it: the creation of intelligence surpassing our own. This is not science fiction—it’s unfolding right now, within our lifetimes. The ripple effects of this seismic event will alter every aspect of society, culture, and existence itself, faster than most can comprehend.

But here’s the pressing question: should everyone know about this impending transformation, or are some truths too overwhelming to bear?

In this article, I won’t debate the feasibility of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or its exponential progress. Instead, I’ll dive into the heart of the matter: the arguments for and against widespread awareness of these changes. Should humanity be fully informed and mentally prepared for a future dominated by superintelligence, or is ignorance a better path to preserve our sanity and way of life? Let’s explore.

I’ll go with the arguments that favor knowledge first. Even if you can’t actually influence the outcome (although it can be debated till death, there could be a miniscule effect of the populace affecting big tech and government policies but let’s assume they can’t), you can certainly affect other aspects of your personal life such as the following.

Live fast

Living life to the fullest in the scene of the roaring 20s or the cocktail parties in the bunkers while Hitler was bombing London. I am recently being moved a lot by conversations with Ukranians that continue to try to live a normal life in Kyiv. There is an awesome aspect of human psychology that changes gears to live fast and die young mentality. It can cut both ways, I am certainly not fascinated by doing stupid stuff like snowballing drugs to end up like Heath Ledger but taking life changing trips now instead of later. Telling the girl/boy you have a crush today and generally forfeiting the work hard to satisfy the needs of my pension or my unborn grandchildren mentality that boomers grew up with. There is no pension if you are a young middle aged adult now. Your boss will probably be unemployed soon so don’t worry about your promotion coming in 5 years that you need to work overtime today.

Catch the longevity escape velocity train

For me this is one of the most important if not the most important aspect of knowing. It comes in stark contrast of the first argument but I didn’t mean live unhealthy by living fast, on the contrary. I think everyone has to gain a lot by living a lot healthier. The game changes a lot given our premise. It means that by smoking a potentially life-shortening cigarette, you are not forfeiting 10 years between 75-85 (smoking is said to reduce lifespans by 10 years on average) but potentially thousands of years. 

Imagine all your friends living on and remembering you in eternity as the last guy that died before the AI found a solution to aging. 

This is also one of the most fun discussions that shock people that come to the live events (see the Local events section below). Everyone can wrap their minds around the concept of losing their jobs to AI but the concept of living for hundreds of years somehow is so alien that they start laughing nervously. The best thing about this argument is that there is a downside. Unlike the other arguments that may make you somber and anxious, even if our premise is wrong you get to live a better, healthier and more active life. This is also an argument that is vastly more important to be delivered to people above middle age. I do believe that if you are in your 20s all you have to do is just don’t die in a motorbike or skydiving accident. The elderly have a real chance at catching the LEV train but only if they actively change lifestyles and do everything in their power to remain alive during this profound phase shift in biology and medicine. Again note that I am not trying in this article to convince anybody about if this is even possible. I will redirect everyone to search for Demis Hassabis (a Nobel Laureate 2024 in the field!) talking about how we will cure all diseases soon and also the magnificent article of Dario Amodei’s called beautifully Machines of Loving Grace 

Stoicism Principles

Preparing mentally also for bad outcomes is something that was advocated for a better life in Stoicism. Seneca and Marcus Aurelius write that they used to wake up and think that it’s the last day they see their children or spouses because they will die and live life according to this and accept it as a natural progression of fate. This supposedly leads to a more relaxed life free of worrying. It is true that this is a fundamental shift to most of us and if not done properly could end up creating very anxious individuals but more of that on the negative part of the article.

Financial planning

People especially in the part of the world I live in (EU) are very financially illiterate and do not understand the game of the financial system the world operates on. Most think the stock market is (in long periods not short) a casino that is only for degenerates. But if you actually study not only what is historically true but also what is about to happen it is very clear that everyone would be better off owning part of the systems that generate wealth. Hell, that is even true in communism. Universal Basic Income could be the futuristic socialism we would create but I don’t want this article to be overly scientific. Put simply, if we create digital workers in a digital economy and you own through stocks part of it, or you own other assets that are scarce like land or any assets that would be useful in this post-agi economy you would be better off. So knowledge is money in this case (and always).

Avoiding normalcy bias

This is a concept that has fascinated me since covid. I learned that this is a mental block that manifests in times of exponential progression of unfavorable events and a specific example is the habitants of Pompeii that were watching paralyzed the eruption of Vesuvius without running to the sea. It’s a form of decision paralysis and/or disbelief that something that grave is happening to them and is disrupting their “normalcy” therefore it can’t be true or it will stop by its own (denial). Prior knowledge certainly makes this easier to avoid. 

Philosophical knowledge

There have been many philosophers including Plato’s allegorical cave, Goethe’s Faust and the cost of knowledge among others. It’s not clear cut and certainly above my payroll to express any authoritative opinion on the subject. Still it can be very interesting for others to explore this. Recently Demis Hassabis expressed on a podcast a call for philosophers needed for this new era and about how to approach the short term future of ours.

Arguments against

Uncontrolled anxiety

The specific knowledge of an impending huge change is not always taken well. It can create a lot of stress to some individuals that are not hardened on the idea or generally more susceptible to stressors. Of course this is always to be measured against the actual sudden shock because remember we have a premise that this is indeed happening sooner or later. This is also a question of timelines. If it’s happening tomorrow of course everyone needs to know today. If it’s happening in 50 years I don’t think so. But we are stuck in the short-to-middle timelines that are according to experts today from 0-10 years from now to big societal changes.

Social revolt and unpredictable outcomes

Knowing that something is happening regardless of the masses and possibly against their will, controlled by some SF companies or Chinese secret labs is not something that sounds very appealing. This can kickstart big society upheaval, calls for war, upend elections and bring crazies into power that will create an even bigger vicious circle to the wrong path of the singularity.

Now after the arguments for and against (I am sure I missed quite a few please discuss in the comments) and if we decide that its actually beneficial to inform everyone about this, how do we do it? Some possible paths are discussed below.

Influencers

Approaching and explaining to well known figures outside of the tech bubble we live in ourselves about all the things I discussed here could be beneficial. They have a tremendous reach and we have lived in a social media society for the last decade where an individual can be heard more than the president of the united states for example because he has more followers. I think a great movement has been started by Bryan Johnson that is called the “Don’t die” movement. He has a lot of haters and maybe he is not for everyone’s taste. Also he is very focused on one specific aspect of the whole situation. We need more, bigger and more mainstream. Think Hollywood stars (have they realized they are going to be cloned and replaced? Some of them start to realize yes). 

Local events

This is something I am actively engaged in like trying to do my part. I have created 3 events in the places I live in (Barcelona, Thessaloniki and Limassol) as a nomad on meetup and have partnered with local organizers to help out. They are small groups and we mostly chat about post-economy, robots and superintelligence and radical life extension. They are not super popular yet. I’d love this to be a global movement, reach out at @arisalexis or @arisalexis.bsky.social or here on LW if you would like to start a local “chapter”. The event is called “The Robots are coming” on meetup in these 3 cities.

What else?

_

Why am I writing this?

Many of us don’t live in the heart of Austin and San Francisco or don’t work even in tech environments. Talking with everyday people makes me understand the different speeds that reality in AI spheres is running relative to the rest of the society and I feel a moral obligation (if this is what is best, that I am not 100% decided upon) to disseminate this knowledge. On a grand scale there are two opposing forces right now at play

Negative

An all out AI race can bring about global wars. Maybe if we even disseminate the wrong message to society and the wrong politicians get AGI-pilled we do more harm than good. If this is the most important invention ever created that can then create immense power for WMDs and new bioweapons, peace is a very hard future to sell. See more on this topic on the excellent and very long article of Leopold Aschenbrenner about situational awareness.

Positive

On the contrary and that’s the most important point I want to get across is that 

If we can all live very long healthy lives for 100s of years in abundance with Asimov’s Robots providing everything for us so that humans can dance and philosophize in vineyards then this also has the power to stop wars. 

Who wants to forfeit his potentially immense lifespan to gain some gold/petrol resource? The game is different from all the rest of human history.

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