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comment by gjm · 2017-10-20T17:03:09.609Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The usual analysis is that a CDT agent cannot say "Yes" planning to pay, because the agent knows that on arriving in the city it will have no further reason to pay.

Your sentence beginning "By Self-Honesty and Consistency" cuts two ways. It does indeed show that if a CDT agent plans to pay then it will pay. But this is equivalent to saying that if it will not pay then it will not plan to pay; and in fact it will not pay, because paying is not an action that CDT says to perform in the situation it will then be in. So the CDT agent will not pay; "by self-honesty and consistency" the CDT agent will also not plan to pay. Which is too bad, because if it could have it would have been much better off.

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comment by [deleted] · 2017-10-20T17:42:45.173Z · LW(p) · GW(p)Replies from: gjm
comment by gjm · 2017-10-20T20:43:57.265Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Your analysis doesn't give any reason to think it's wrong, and doesn't engage with its central point. Do you (1) deny that "on arriving in the city [the CDT agent] will have no further reason to pay", or (2) deny that it has the consequences I say it has, or (3) something else, and why?

I am not assuming it won't pay. I am deducing that it won't pay from the fact that it is a CDT agent, which by definition means that whenever it has a choice to make it does whatever maximizes its utility given the choice it makes. (In some not necessarily perfectly clear counterfactual sense.)

(If you are supposing that we have a CDT agent provided with some means of making binding commitments regarding its future behaviour then I agree that such an agent can pay in the Parfit-hitchhiker situation. But that isn't what Parfit's example is about. At least, not as I've heard it presented around here; I don't think I've read Parfit's original presentation of the scenario.)

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comment by [deleted] · 2017-10-21T07:22:10.234Z · LW(p) · GW(p)Replies from: RobbBB, gjm
comment by Rob Bensinger (RobbBB) · 2017-10-21T08:03:05.291Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

CDT agents perform poorly in Parfit's hitchhiker dilemma if they can't bind themselves to act a certain way in the future, and perform well if they can make binding commitments. For an example of a problem where CDT agents perform poorly regardless of whether they can make binding commitments, see retro blackmail in https://arxiv.org/pdf/1507.01986.pdf.

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comment by [deleted] · 2017-10-21T10:18:52.639Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
comment by gjm · 2017-10-21T11:58:42.921Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

An agent capable of making such commitments is either not a CDT agent (because when making its later choice, it considers not only the causal consequences of that choice but also its prior commitments) or more than a CDT agent (because it has some extra mechanism that binds it and forces it to make a particular decision even though its causal consequences are bad).

I hoped it might prove useful to look up the original context of Parfit's thought experiment. It's on page 7 in my copy of Reasons and Persons, a fact I mention in the hope that some future person wanting to look it up will find this comment and be saved some effort; he doesn't use the term "hitchhiker", though his example does involve being stranded in the desert. As it happens, Parfit's purposes in considering the scenario aren't quite those of evaluating CDT, though they're not a million miles off, and I don't think they help clarify whether or not we should consider CDT agents to be able to bind their future selves. (He's considering whether it is better to be "never self-denying", which means "I never do what I believe will be worse for me", and whether a certain "self-interest principle" he's considering should be understood as telling people to be never self-denying. He doesn't couch his discussion in terms of decision theories, and doesn't e.g. consider anything much like the CDT-versus-EDT-versus-UDT-versus-TDT-etc. questions that are popular around here, though he does have things to say about how agents might select their dispositions, and might deliberately choose to be disposed to make non-future-optimizing choices to avoid bad consequences in the hitchhiker case.)

comment by ZeitPolizei · 2017-10-20T15:30:40.236Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

How is detecting lies fundamentally different from simulation? What is a lie? If I use a memory charm on myself, such that I honestly believe I will pay 1000$, but only until I arrive in the city, would that count as a lie? Isn't the whole premise of the hitchhiker problem, that the driver cannot be tricked, and you're just saying "Ah, but if the driver can be tricked in this way, this type of decision theorist can trick her!"

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comment by [deleted] · 2017-10-20T16:40:10.236Z · LW(p) · GW(p)Replies from: ZeitPolizei
comment by ZeitPolizei · 2017-10-20T17:25:37.089Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

OK, if I'm interpreting this correctly, "consistency" could be said to be the ability to make a plan and follow through with it, barring new information or unexpected circumstances. So the actions the CDT agent has available aren't just "say yes" and "say no" but also "say yes, get into the car, and bring the driver 1000$ once you are in the city", interpreting all of that as a single action.

However in that case, it is not necessary to distinguish between detecting lies and simulating.

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comment by [deleted] · 2017-10-20T17:41:31.961Z · LW(p) · GW(p)