Scott Alexander 2021 predictions: calibration and updating exercise

post by Rob Bensinger (RobbBB) · 2021-04-29T19:15:39.463Z · LW · GW · 2 comments

Contents

  US/WORLD
  ECON/TECH
  COVID
  COMMUNITY
  PERSONAL
  WORK
  BLOG
  META
None
2 comments

Scott Alexander makes yearly predictions on SSC/ACX. This year, I avoided looking at his blog post so I could make my own unanchored predictions about the same topics, using a copy of the post with Scott's probabilities removed. Then I looked at his and others' numbers, to see how much they update me.

For each question...

• Bullet #1 is my initial Apr. 27 guess, based on about 20-120 seconds of googling and/or thinking.
• Bullet #2 is my revised prediction after talking to my boyfriend and seeing their unanchored predictions.
• Bullet #3 is my revised prediction after seeing Scott's probabilities (SA).
• Bullet #4 is my revised Apr. 29 prediction after seeing Zvi Mowshowitz's arguments and probabilities [LW · GW] (ZM) and market prices collected and interpreted by SimonM [LW · GW] (MS).

My numbers were influenced a lot by the fact that I expect to round to the nearest 10% (or to 1% / 5% / 95% / 99% at the extremes) to check calibration.

 

US/WORLD

1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%: [SA 80, ZM 80, MS 61]

• Initial: 73%
• Post-Boyfriend: 73%
• Post-Scott: 75%
• Final: 75%

2. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year): [SA 5, ZM 5, MS ~4-5+]

• 5%
• 7%
• 4%
• 4%

3. Yang is New York mayor: [SA 80, ZM 70, SM 69-77]

• 85%
• 85%
• 82%
• 74%

4. Newsom recalled as CA governor: [SA 5, ZM ?, MS ~7]

• 4%
• 6%
• 4%
• 10%

5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year: [SA 30, ZM ≤20]

• 45%
• 45%
• 30%
• 19%

6. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket): [SA 20, ZM 20]

• 40%
• 40%
• 20%
• 23%

7. Trump is allowed back on Twitter: [SA 20, ZM 10]

• 7%
• 8%
• 13%
• 12%

8. Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule: [SA 70, ZM 80, MS 75]

• 66%
• 66%
• 66%
• 74%

9. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war: [SA 20, ZM ≤15, MS ~16]

• 6%
• 6%
• 20%
• 14%

10. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict: [SA 5, ZM 5-~15]

• 3%
• 3%
• 3%
• 11%

11. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict: [SA 5, ZM 3]

• 2%
• 2%
• 2%
• 2%

12. Netanyahu is still Israeli PM: [SA 40, ZM 30, MS 22]

• 86%
• 86%
• 40%
• 35%

13. Prospera has at least 1000 residents: [SA 30, ZM 30]

• 13%
• 15%
• 24%
• 21%

 

ECON/TECH

14. Gamestop stock price still above $100: [SA 50, ZM 50, MS 60]

• 39%
• 39%
• 50%
• 59%

15. Bitcoin above 100K: [SA 40, ZM 25, MS 25]

• 20%
• 20%
• 36%
• 18%

16. Ethereum above 5K: [SA 50, ZM 30, MS 11]

• 20%
• 20%
• 40%
• 19%

17. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: [SA 70, ZM 55, MS ~33]

• 50%
• 50%
• 65%
• 50%

18. Dow above 35K: [SA 90, ZM<<90, MS 50]

• 77%
• 77%
• 90%
• 50%

19. ...above 37.5K: [SA 70, ZM ?, MS 20]

• 48%
• 48%
• 70%
• 20%

20. Unemployment above 5%: [SA 40, ZM 50, MS 37]

• 74%
• 74%
• 55%
• 55%

21. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: [SA 20, ZM 30]

• 18%
• 20%
• 20%
• 23%

22. Starship reaches orbit: [SA 60, ZM 60, MS 50]

• 42%
• 45%
• 60%
• 57%

 

COVID

23. Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2021: [SA 30, ZM 70]

• 48%
• 48%
• 32%
• 52%

24. Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2021: [SA 1, ZM 1]

• 8%
• 8%
• 0.8%
• 3%

25. Greater than 66% of US population vaccinated against COVID: [SA 50, ZM 60, MS ~77+]

• 69%
• 69%
• 59%
• 59%

26. India's official case count is higher than US: [SA 50, ZM ≥80]

• 70%
• 70%
• 55%
• 75%

27. Vitamin D is [not] generally recognized (eg NICE, UpToDate) as effective COVID treatment: [SA 70, ZM 50 (but mistook SA as 30), MS ~75-85]

• 93%
• 93%
• 81%
• 81%

28. Something else not currently used becomes first-line treatment for COVID: [SA 40, ZM 25]

• 29%
• 36%
• 40%
• 40%

29. Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of cases: [SA 50, ZM 60]

• 35%
• 42%
• 44%
• 52%

30. Some new variant where no existing vaccine is more than 50% effective: [SA 40, ZM ≤25]

• 8%
• 10%
• 27%
• 17%

31. US approves AstraZeneca vaccine: [SA 20, ZM 20, MS 37]

• 68%
• 65%
• 20%
• 20%

32. Most people I see in the local grocery store aren't wearing a mask: [SA 60, ZM 75]

• 53%
• 53%
• 60%
• 69%

 

COMMUNITY

33. Major rationalist org leaves Bay Area: [SA 60, ZM ?]

• 91%
• 91%
• 89%
• 89%

34-37. [redacted] []

38. No new residents at our housing cluster: [SA 40, ZM 35]

• 20%
• 20%
• 40%
• 37%

39. No current residents leave our housing cluster: [SA 60, ZM 65]

• 48%
• 48%
• 60%
• 56%

40-52. [redacted] []

53. At least seven days my house is orange or worse on PurpleAir.com because of fires: [SA 80, ZM 80]

• 53%
• 55%
• 80%
• 80%

 

PERSONAL

54-59. [redacted] []

60. There are no appraisal-related complications to the new house purchase: [SA 50, ZM 60]

• 30%
• 40%
• 50%
• 60%

61. I live in the new house: [SA 95, ZM 90]

• 82%
• 82%
• 93%
• 92%

62. I live in the top bedroom: [SA 60, ZM 65]

• 67%
• 67%
• 58%
• 65%

63. I can hear / get annoyed by neighbor TV noise: [SA 40, ZM 30]

• 58%
• 58%
• 40%
• 37%

64. I'm playing in a D&D campaign: [SA 70, ZM 70]

• 20%
• 20%
• 70%
• 68%

65. I go on at least one international trip: [SA 60, ZM 60]

• 26%
• 26%
• 60%
• 57%

66. I spend at least a month living somewhere other than the Bay: [SA 50, ZM 50]

• 17%
• 17%
• 50%
• 50%

67. I continue my current exercise routine (and get through an entire cycle of it) in Q4 2021: [SA 70, ZM 65]

• 17%
• 15%
• 63%
• 60%

68. I meditate at least 15 days in Q4 2021: [SA 60, ZM 60]

• 15%
• 15%
• 60%
• 59%

69. I take oroxylum at least 5 times in Q4 2021: [SA 40, ZM 40]

• 20%
• 20%
• 38%
• 38%

70. I take some substance I haven't discovered yet at least 5 times in Q4 2021 (testing exempted): [SA 30, ZM 25]

• 31%
• 31%
• 30%
• 24%

71. I do at least six new biohacking experiments in the next eight months: [SA 40, ZM 40]

• 36%
• 36%
• 36%
• 38%

72. [redacted] []

73. The Twitter account I check most frequently isn't one of the five I check frequently now: [SA 20, ZM 15]

• 48%
• 48%
• 20%
• 24%

74. I make/retweet at least 25 tweets between now and 2022: [SA 70, ZM 75]

• 60%
• 60%
• 70%
• 70%

 

WORK

75. Lorien has 100+ patients: [SA 90, ZM 85]

• 58%
• 58%
• 90%
• 87%

76. 150+ patients: [SA 20, ZM 25]

• 45%
• 45%
• 20%
• 21%

77. 200+ patients: [SA 5, ZM 5-10]

• 38%
• 37%
• 9%
• 8%

78. I've written at least ten more Lorien writeups (so total at least 27): [SA 30, ZM 30]

• 43%
• 43%
• 24%
• 24%

79-83. [redacted] []

84. I have switched medical records systems: [SA 20, ZM 15]

• 46%
• 50%
• 20%
• 20%

85. I have changed my pricing scheme: [SA 20, ZM 20]

• 28%
• 34%
• 20%
• 20%

 

BLOG

86. ACX is earning more money than it is right now: [SA 70, ZM 80]

• 65%
• 65%
• 70%
• 72%

87-89. [redacted] []

90. There is another article primarily about SSC/ACX/me in a major news source: [SA 10, ZM 25]

• 75%
• 71%
• 23%
• 23%

91. I subscribe to at least 5 new Substacks (so total of 8): [SA 20, ZM 30]

• 13%
• 18%
• 20%
• 20%

92. I've read and reviewed How Asia Works: [SA 90, ZM 90]

• 50%
• 53%
• 88%
• 88%

93. I've read and reviewed Nixonland: [SA 70, ZM 70]

• 45%
• 56%
• 65%
• 66%

94. I've read and reviewed Scout Mindset: [SA 60, ZM 70]

• 59%
• 60%
• 60%
• 63%

95. I've read and reviewed at least two more dictator books: [SA 50, ZM 45]

• 42%
• 42%
• 42%
• 42%

96. I've started and am at least 25% of the way through the formal editing process for Unsong: [SA 30, ZM 30]

• 60%
• 63%
• 30%
• 29%

97. Unsong is published: [SA 10, ZM 10]

• 15%
• 42%
• 14%
• 14%

98. I've written at least five chapters of some non-Unsong book I hope to publish: [SA 40]

• 41%
• 39%
• 40%
• 40%

99. [redacted] wins the book review contest: [SA 60, ZM 50]

• 8%
• 8%
• 52%
• 48%

100. I run an ACX reader survey: [SA 50, ZM 50]

• 55%
• 53%
• 48%
• 48%

101. I run a normal ACX survey (must start, but not necessarily finish, before end of year): [SA 90, ZM 90]

• 65%
• 65%
• 86%
• 84%

102. By end of year, some other post beats NYT commentary for my most popular post: [SA 10, ZM 10]

• 65%
• 65%
• 13%
• 14%

103. I finish and post the culture wars essay I'm working on: [SA 90, ZM 90]

• 38%
• 40%
• 85%
• 85%

104. I finish and post the climate change essay I'm working on: [SA 80, ZM 80]

• 46%
• 47%
• 80%
• 80%

105. I finish and post the CO₂ essay I'm working on: [SA 80, ZM 80]

• 49%
• 52%
• 80%
• 80%

106. I have a queue of fewer than ten extra posts: [SA 70, ZM 60]

• 57%
• 57%
• 70%
• 60%

 

META

107. I double my current amount of money ($1000) on PredictIt: [SA 10, ZM 15]

• 49%
• 49%
• 10%
• 22%

108. I post my scores on these predictions before 3/1/22: [SA 70, ZM 75]

• 54%
• 54%
• 63%
• 64%

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