Comment by dsj on What happens to variance as neural network training is scaled? What does it imply about "lottery tickets"? · 2020-07-28T22:59:14.970Z · score: 9 (2 votes) · LW · GW

One assumption that I think might be implicit in your question is that the number of lottery tickets is linear with model size. But it seems plausible to me that it’s exponential in network depth.

Comment by dsj on Has the effectiveness of fever screening declined? · 2020-04-03T09:36:19.780Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

But in the context of the question as to whether it might exert selective pressure, even a ~10% reduction in R₀ would be quite relevant, when compounded over one or two dozen generations of the virus.

Comment by dsj on Has the effectiveness of fever screening declined? · 2020-03-28T11:27:30.085Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I don't understand why you say it was never effective. Certainly some infected have no symptoms, or no symptoms yet, or different symptoms, but fever is among the most common symptoms, and so it does catch a significant fraction of active infections.

Comment by dsj on Where can we donate time and money to avert coronavirus deaths? · 2020-03-19T10:43:26.804Z · score: 8 (3 votes) · LW · GW

There's a forum for COVID-19 projects looking for volunteers, and separately, a shared spreadsheet created by Sam Altman for project pitches.

Comment by dsj on Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread · 2020-03-11T09:13:40.621Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Consider that by quarantining yourself you're also protecting others from being infected (directly and indirectly) by you, some of whom may be in much higher risk categories. Given that we're still in the early stages of exponential growth, this seems quite significant.