2022 ACX predictions: market prices

post by Sam Marks (samuel-marks) · 2022-03-06T06:24:42.908Z · LW · GW · 2 comments

Contents

  Scott predictions
  Future Perfect predictions
  Matt Yglesias predictions
None
2 comments

As part of the 2022 ACX prediction contest, which I am co-running with Eric Neyman, I wanted to get market prices for all of the predictions.^[1] These market prices will be included with the contest data, which should be released soon.

This ended up being harder than I expected, and I can't guarantee this data is error-free. So in the interest of transparency, I'm making this post to explain where all the numbers came from. 

Before I get into it, some notes:

• These are supposed to be market prices as of February 14, 2022, which was the last day for contest submissions. 
  • In some cases (like when backing a probability out of a Metaculus probability distribution) I didn't know how to get historical data. If it didn't look to me like the market had moved much since 2/14, I instead used the predictions as of today, March 5.
• When aggregating predictions from different markets, I'm weighting them according to how many stars they get from Metaforecast, when available. When not available, I'm using my judgement.
  • Many of the Manifold markets were very lightly traded, some having only 1 or 2 bets. I tried to note this below when I noticed it.
• There was some personal judgement involved in e.g. deciding whether a market asked close enough to the right thing to be relevant, adding or subtracting a few percentage points to PredictIt markets which don't sum to 100%, etc. If it seems like I misjudged anything here, it's possibly because I did.
• I also expect that there's at least one outright error from something silly like copying the wrong number.
• So: if you see anything wrong please let me know! Also please let me know if there's a relevant market which I missed or if you see a way to back predictions out of financial markets which I didn't think of (I've noted such cases below).

Anyway, here we go:

Scott predictions

1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than fifty percent: 14 
   (12 from Manifold; also this market from Kalshi saying 20% for having approval >45% on election day in November)
2. At least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US: 36 (Manifold)
3. PredictIt thinks Joe Biden is most likely 2024 Dem nominee: 73 (Manifold)
4. PredictIt thinks Donald Trump is most likely 2024 GOP nominee: 60 (Manifold)
5. Major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict: 76 (88 from Manifold; 60% chance of invasion from Metaculus)
6. Major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict: 15 (Manifold)
7. Major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict: 15 (20 from Manifold; 10% chance of military conflict from Metaculus)
8. Honduran ZEDEs legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further: None (no one had yet made a bet in the Manifold market)
9. New ZEDE approved in Honduras: None (no one has made a bet in the Manifold market even now)
10. Gamestop stock price still above $100: 50 (GME options; Manifold said 24%, but there were 2 bets so I'm ignoring it)
11. Bitcoin above 100K: 8 (5 from BTC options; 11 from Metaculus; 33 from Manifold)
12. Ethereum above 5K: 20 (17 from ETH options; 83(!) from Manifold)
13. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: 36 (from 2 Manifold bets; I don't know of a way to back this out of options prices but would love to hear suggestions)
14. Dow above 35K: 54 (Dow options; ignoring the one (1) Manifold bet)
15. Dow above 37.5K: 30 (Dow options; ignoring the 3 Manifold bets)
16. Inflation for the year below five percent: 45 (Manifold; the financial markets probably have an opinion about this but I don't know how to find it - would appreciate any help!)
17. Unemployment below five percent in December: 73 (Kalshi said 92% that unemployment never goes above 6%; 49 from Manifold)
18. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: 14 (Manifold)
19. Starship reaches orbit: 94 (71 from Manifold; 97 from Metaculus)
20. Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2022: None (Manifold had no bettors)
21. Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2022: 2 (congrats to the one person who bet on this on Manifold)
22. >66% US population fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID: 80 (Manifold)
23. India's official case count is higher than US: None (no bettors on Manifold)
24. Medical establishment reverses course and officially says any of Vitamin D, HCQ, or ivermectin is actually effective against COVID: 9 (Manifold)
25. FDA approves a COVID indication for fluvoxamine: None (still no bets on Manifold)
26. Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of cases: 79 (Manifold)
27. Most people Scott sees in his local grocery store on December 31st are wearing masks: 38 (Manifold)
28. Masks still required on US domestic flights: 51 (47 from Manifold; 53 from Metaculus)
29. CDC recommends that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax: 61 (Manifold)
30. China has fewer than 100,000 COVID cases this year (official estimate): None (sad Manifold)
31. No new real-money prediction market becomes bigger than Polymarket: 61 (Manifold)
32. Manifold Markets is still alive and active: 91(a very optimistic Manifold)
33. New legal US real-money prediction market at least half as big as Kalshi: 12 (Manifold)
34. New illegal but easy-to-use market satisfying the above: 42 (Manifold)

Future Perfect predictions

1. Inflation for the year under three percent: 29 (33 from Metaculus (technically for Dec 2021 to Dec 2022); 25 from Manifold)
2. Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate: 73 (73 from PredictIt; 72 from Smarkets; 65 from Metaculus; 84 from Manifold)
3. Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade: 46 (62 from Metaculus; 26 from Manifold)
4. Emmanuel Macron will be reelected president of France: 77 (75 from Polymarket; 79 from PredictIt; 74 from Metaculus; 79 from Smarkets; 81 from Manifold)
5. Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected president of Brazil: 28 (25 from Polymarket; 26 from PredictIt; 34 from Metaculus; 25 from Smarkets; 33 from Manifold)
6. Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines: 76 (80 from PredictIt; 75 from Metaculus; 63 from Manifold)
7. China will NOT reopen its borders at any point during the first half of 2022: 98 (Metaculus (market is technically about whether US travelers will need to quarantine); still no bets on Manifold) 
8. Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first 3/4 of the year: 95 (Manifold)
9. 20% of US kids between 0.5 and 5 years old will get at least one COVID vaccine by year's end: 56 (50 from Metaculus; 68 from two bets on Manifold)
10. WHO will designate another Variant Of Concern: 76 (76 from Metaculus; 77 from Manifold)
11. 12 billion COVID shots will be given out globally by November 1st: 92 (Metaculus; ignoring one bet from Manifold)
12. At least one country will have less than 10% of people vaccinated with two shots by November 1st: 81(Manifold; Metaculus has a market that only counts countries that are releasing data, so e.g. not North Korea; FP and Scott might resolve this one differently)
13. A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized/legalized in at least one more US state: 57 (59 from Metaculus; 55 from Manifold)
14. AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials: 71 (Manifold)
15. US government will NOT renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research: 73 (74 from Metaculus; 71 from Manifold)
16. The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100/ton or more: 35 (31 from Metaculus; 49 from two bets on Manifold)
17. 2022 will be warmer than 2021: 70 (62 from Metaculus; 80 from Manifold)
18. Kenneth Branagh's Belfast will win Best Picture: 36 (35 from Metaculus; 37 from Manifold)

Matt Yglesias predictions

1. Democrats lose at least two Senate seats: 53 (63 from PredictIt; 48 from Metaculus; 45 eyeballed from Smarkets (their binning wasn't compatible with this question))
2. Democrats lose fewer than six Senate seats: 92 (PredictIt and Metaculus) 
3. Nancy Pelosi announces retirement plans: 42 (Manifold; but maybe there's a way to back this out of other markets?)
4. Joe Biden is still president: 91 (Manifold)
5. At least one Biden cabinet-rank official resigns: None (couldn't find any markets)
6. No military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan: 89 (90 from Metaculus; 86 from Manifold)
7. Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations: None (couldn't find any markets)
8. Fewer US Covid deaths in 2022 than in 2021: 96 (Metaculus)
9. Emmanuel Macron re-elected: 77 (same as above; this appeared twice in the contest, oops)
10. Liz Cheney loses primary: 77 (78 from PredictIt; 74 from Manifold)
11. Some version of USICA passes Congress: 80 (Kalshi)
12. Lula elected president of Brazil: 70 (67 from Polymarket; 72 from PredictIt)
13. China officially abandons Covid Zero: 74 (Manifold)
14. Additional booster shots of mRNA vaccines authorized for seniors: None (couldn't find any markets)
15. The Fed ends up doing more than its currently forecast three interest rate hikes: 84 (SOFR futures; see this comment [LW · GW] by SimonM)
16. Viktor Orbán loses power in Hungary: 26 (17 from PredictIt; 20 from Smarkets; 45 from Metaculus on whether he loses the election; why the big difference here - is there concern that he would win the election and lose power anyway?)
17. Sinn Fein becomes the largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly: 80 (Smarkets)
18. Democrats lose at least one governor on net: 76 (Manifold)

1. ^{^}

   See also the excellent work [LW · GW] of SimonM, who did this exercise for Scott's 2021 predictions.

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