What are the risks of permanent injury from COVID?

post by Daniel Kokotajlo (daniel-kokotajlo) · 2020-07-07T16:30:49.413Z · LW · GW · 9 comments

This is a question post.

I'm in my late twenties. I can easily find estimates of the risk of death, but I'm having trouble figuring out what the risk of permanent injury (e.g. fatigue) is. I figure someone on LW has probably already looked into this, so I thought I'd ask.


answer by Ruby · 2020-07-07T18:05:31.699Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Good question! I believe this is a duplicate of Will COVID-19 survivors suffer lasting disability at a high rate? [LW · GW]

comment by chrisburnor · 2020-07-07T18:44:35.033Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The other discussion seems rather old (late February). Given that there is substantially more data, both in terms of number of infected as well as long term effects (at least as long term as we can get for a disease which has been around for ~6-8 months), it would seem that revisiting this question is not a bad idea.

comment by Daniel Kokotajlo (daniel-kokotajlo) · 2020-07-07T19:24:09.119Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Thanks, I hadn't seen that before, and found it helpful. I sure would love to see a more definitive, up-to-date answer though, now that so much more data and research exists on the topic.

Replies from: Ruby
comment by Ruby · 2020-07-07T20:30:45.467Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Yeah, me too.

answer by zby · 2020-07-08T09:38:44.942Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I have gathered some links in: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSKsPwMjn2JxYroNA/how-likely-is-the-covid-19-apocalyptic-scenario?commentId=X554vNDwzpCyZQeFP [LW(p) · GW(p)] -but I guess it is dated now. It is strange that we don't have stats about that - it is only one step more difficult than the CFR stats.

answer by Adele Lopez · 2020-07-07T22:42:53.113Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Pulmonary fibrosis seems to be a fairly common outcome of COVID19 (especially if you needed hospitalization). According to Wikipedia, "Life expectancy is generally less than five years."

comment by Rob Bensinger (RobbBB) · 2020-07-07T22:47:41.828Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The last time I saw it mentioned that COVID-19 can cause pulmonary fibrosis, it was in the context of autopsies. Do we have any more evidence about whether fibrosis is occurring in survivors, and if so about how common it is?

comment by jowen · 2020-07-08T10:54:39.433Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I’m not sure the fibrosis due to COVID-19 is really the same thing as the article on Wikipedia you link to. Pulmonary fibrosis that arises with autoimmune cause, or no apparent cause, may be more likely to be progressive than that due to COVID-19.

Damage from COVID-19 could still be disabling, of course, even if not progressive.

See here where this matter is discussed: https://www.newswise.com/coronavirus/fibrosis-or-pulmonary-fibrosis-covid-19-coverage-leads-to-confusion/?article_id=730976

comment by remizidae · 2020-07-10T14:33:17.597Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

What is your source for "fairly common," and can you quantify that?


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