Minicamp Confidence Intervals

post by Mass_Driver · 2011-06-02T19:40:06.751Z · LW · GW · Legacy · 7 comments

Contents

7 comments

I predict, with 50% confidence, that this comment will have between +1 and +4 karma at 9 pm PST on 6/2/2011.

7 comments

Comments sorted by top scores.

comment by Kevin · 2011-06-03T02:29:21.587Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Less Wrong hates it when you do things like this, definitely not.

comment by Dorikka · 2011-06-02T20:57:10.327Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I think that your prediction affected the outcome. :D

Replies from: Lightwave
↑ comment by Lightwave · 2011-06-03T09:06:23.916Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

He probably thought he had predicted how his prediction will affect the outcome. :D

comment by prase · 2011-06-03T11:09:16.148Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Better would be to predict that the comment will have, say, between -10 and 0 karma. Would the audience who dislike this type of comments downvote to hurt the author's karma, or upvote to frustrate his prediction?

(I am not going to do the experiment myself - the first time it is slightly amusing, the second time it would be annoying. But if somebody doesn't mind being annoying...)

Replies from: wedrifid, cwillu
↑ comment by wedrifid · 2011-06-03T11:29:43.493Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Better would be to predict that the comment will have, say, between -10 and 0 karma. Would the audience who dislike this type of comments downvote to hurt the author's karma, or upvote to frustrate his prediction?

I would downvote for annoyingness.

↑ comment by cwillu · 2011-06-03T13:04:12.579Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

We're really good at this sort of group coordination: -20 karma for sure :)

Replies from: prase
↑ comment by prase · 2011-06-03T14:10:31.840Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

So modify: predict that the karma will be negative with 90% confidence.