Why Did Elon Musk Just Offer to Buy Control of OpenAI for $100 Billion?
post by garrison · 2025-02-11T00:20:41.421Z · LW · GW · 8 commentsThis is a link post for https://garrisonlovely.substack.com/p/why-did-elon-musk-just-offer-to-buy
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comment by Thane Ruthenis · 2025-02-11T19:10:26.340Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
What are the current best theories regarding why Altman is doing the for-profit transition at all?
I don't buy the getting-rid-of-profit-caps motive. It seems to live in a fantasy universe in which they expect to have a controllable ASI on their hands, yet... still be bound by economic rules and regulations? If OpenAI controls an ASI, OpenAI's leadership would be able to unilaterally decide where the resources go, regardless of what various contracts and laws say. If the profit caps are there but Altman wants to reward loyal investors, all profits will go to his cronies. If the profit caps are gone but Altman is feeling altruistic, he'll throw the investors a modest fraction of the gains and distribute the rest however he sees fit. The legal structure doesn't matter; what matters is who physically types what commands into the ASI control terminal.
Maybe it makes sense in a soft-takeoff world where several actors get ASI tools literally simultaneously, and then some of them choose to use these tools to enforce pre-Singularity agreements (but not prevent other ASIs from being created?), thereby binding OpenAI to obey their contracts...? Sounds incredibly dubious.
Or perhaps it doesn't need to make sense. Perhaps the point is to make it look like investing in OpenAI big now can make you a god-king alongside Altman, thereby attracting massive funding for OpenAI in the now, with the investors being too stupid/FOMO'd to realize these agreements won't matter?
Replies from: daniel-kokotajlo, jbash, sharmake-farah↑ comment by Daniel Kokotajlo (daniel-kokotajlo) · 2025-02-11T19:43:20.610Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
If OpenAI controls an ASI, OpenAI's leadership would be able to unilaterally decide where the resources go, regardless of what various contracts and laws say. If the profit caps are there but Altman wants to reward loyal investors, all profits will go to his cronies. If the profit caps are gone but Altman is feeling altruistic, he'll throw the investors a modest fraction of the gains and distribute the rest however he sees fit. The legal structure doesn't matter; what matters is who physically types what commands into the ASI control terminal.
Sama knows this but the investors he is courting don't, and I imagine he's not keen to enlighten them.
↑ comment by jbash · 2025-02-11T19:41:38.592Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Altman might be thinking in terms of ASI (a) existing and (b) holding all meaningful power in the world. All the people he's trying to get money from are thinking in terms of AGI limited enough that it and its owners could be brought to heel by the legal system.
↑ comment by Noosphere89 (sharmake-farah) · 2025-02-11T20:53:55.696Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
The reason is to get OpenAI critical funding, because right now, AI products are huge money losers, and if they want their company to survive, they need funding until AI can get stable profit sources.
comment by Michaël Trazzi (mtrazzi) · 2025-02-11T02:51:36.668Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Much needed reporting!