Longview Anarchism: Transcending the Existential Threat of Freedom 2017-12-17T22:30:44.340Z

Bayes and Paradigm Shifts - or being wrong af 2017-12-13T04:48:17.844Z

Comment by abbeybee on Bayes and Paradigm Shifts - or being wrong af · 2017-12-17T22:17:34.967Z · LW · GW

My mindset was that this was a social site rather than a publishing depot so I didn't put the effort into editing. But I'm also new to the forums (although longterm reader of the extended LW universe) so I'm happy to be proven wrong if need be.

Comment by abbeybee on Bayes and Paradigm Shifts - or being wrong af · 2017-12-17T22:15:14.428Z · LW · GW

My intent was less to imply p(the sun will rise forever), but rather that the p(the sun will rise tommorrow) will eventually be very wrong. Of course as you mention the sun would start to look weird which should trigger uncertainty, but that is more the particulars of the example, than the spirit of the thought experiment behind it imo.

Comment by abbeybee on Bayes and Paradigm Shifts - or being wrong af · 2017-12-17T22:11:55.395Z · LW · GW

I'm amazed that no one critiqued the most glaring error- that the sun will not supernova but rather turn into a red giant and then a white dwarf and that you would be not be able to notice it not rising because you'd be dead. X )