A question about utilitarianism and selfishness. 2013-09-29T01:03:50.407Z

Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT 2013-07-19T02:59:21.923Z

Advice please: Cognitive distortion preventing me from accomplishing anything 2012-07-31T23:12:56.298Z

How to Draw Conclusions Like Sherlock Holmes 2011-12-27T13:29:03.419Z

Comment by abcd_z on A question about utilitarianism and selfishness. · 2013-09-29T02:37:22.973Z · LW · GW

That last one was meant as in "he's a player that just met her and so am I."

Comment by abcd_z on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT · 2013-07-19T05:40:00.909Z · LW · GW

what's that?

Comment by abcd_z on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT · 2013-07-19T05:35:06.302Z · LW · GW

1) What error bars? Are you talking about the relative uncertainty of the priors? Because it's assumed that these prior are only my best estimate. You're not saying anything new here.
2) "how hot/successful she is relative to you": I haven't heard of any studies that positively correlate physical appearance and financial success with reduced time to get over a long-term relationship. I admit that it's possible that there's a connection, but as of yet I haven't seen any evidence that would persuade me to include it.
3) "if she broke up with you she has likely wanted to do better for some time." Again, you're making unjustified claims with no evidence to support them.

"The usual post-breakup advice is to focus on your own goals for awhile."
Now this I agree with.

Comment by abcd_z on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT · 2013-07-19T05:16:58.795Z · LW · GW

What's an Open Thread and why would this belong there?

Comment by abcd_z on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT · 2013-07-19T04:33:13.945Z · LW · GW

Thanks. :)

Comment by abcd_z on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT · 2013-07-19T03:53:14.823Z · LW · GW

Ah. Sorry I didn't make that clear.
Yeah, that particular prior is low at least partly because of my wishful thinking.

Not that it seems to have helped. =/

Comment by abcd_z on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT · 2013-07-19T03:41:04.197Z · LW · GW

She almost never missed my calls.

Comment by abcd_z on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT · 2013-07-19T03:38:38.773Z · LW · GW

I don't trust my accuracy of measurement from the time we broke up until now. The relationship between us has been...uncertain, and her ignoring my calls is the first behavioral cue I can point to and say "Okay, that means there's a good chance she's over me."

Comment by abcd_z on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT · 2013-07-19T03:19:27.064Z · LW · GW

And remember that the "probability that she's over me," should be probability that she got over you since the last time you checked.

Wouldn't that be redundant?

Comment by abcd_z on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT · 2013-07-19T03:17:09.328Z · LW · GW

She would always get back to me within a short amount of time when she found out she missed my call. The only times that hasn't happened was when the phone glitched and she was unaware that I'd tried to contact her.

If anything, 10% is a little high.

Comment by abcd_z on Advice please: Cognitive distortion preventing me from accomplishing anything · 2012-07-31T23:57:30.383Z · LW · GW

I haven't been able to afford therapy for a while now. When I could afford it he taught me enough behavioral therapy to eventually overcome my previous entanglements, but this is something new for me.

Comment by abcd_z on Rationality Quotes July 2011 · 2011-07-03T05:15:40.023Z · LW · GW

When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?

John Maynard Keynes