Comment by Abraham Parangi (abraham-parangi) on Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war · 2022-10-09T14:01:18.970Z · LW · GW

There's an implicit assumption in this line of reasoning that military response is inherently escalatory but you are demonstrating with this line of reasoning that fear of military response is de-escalatory! 

The assumption beneath that is that you are rational but your counterparty is unlike you and cannot be trusted to be rational - but if this is the case then you are trapped in a room with a madman with a knife and the only rational move is first strike.