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Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T22:14:49.627Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

And there is leverage, so you can invest 100 $, but get profits or loses like you invested 10000 $. So if theres 100x leverage, and 1% profit to make on currencies each day, you can double your money every day.

So to turn 100 galeons to 100000 galeons Harry would need 10 transactions with 1% profit each.

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/forexleverage.asp#axzz1qS7tVBFp

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T22:06:10.079Z · score: 2 (8 votes) · LW · GW

So everybody except Harry are holding idiot balls?

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T21:40:54.898Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Great point. If Harry is Voldemort, Voldemort will keep Harry money because Lucius have them. If Harry is not Voldemort, Voldemort will earn Harry money, because Lucius have them now.

Win-win once again. Lucius is a competent player, and Harry is underestimating him.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T21:28:32.142Z · score: 3 (5 votes) · LW · GW

So if Hermione is vassal of Harry, and Harry is temporary vassal of Lucius, then is Hermione vassal of Lucius?

Or do the muggle medieval rule "the vassal of my vassal is not my vassal" works in magical Brittain also?

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T20:47:20.534Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Oh, right.

It's funny how we(I) take some things for granted.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T19:33:52.214Z · score: 6 (6 votes) · LW · GW

Yeah, phrasing it right wouldn't be trivial, but much easier than making wishes for UFAI, because Veritaserum is the equivalent of perfect box for AI, and Draco is human, so most of the definitions and assumptions he shares with the judges.

So maybe: "Tell me the things, you think I would want to know about, according to the best model of me you can construct."

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T19:12:10.063Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

With heavily leveraged trading on forex ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market ) , he can make 100 galleons into 100 000 galleons in one hour (with leverage of 0.2% you earn profits from trading of X, but you only need to really have 0.002 of X). And you can do this over internet, by a few back and forth trades that lasts for a few minutes.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T18:44:44.071Z · score: 1 (3 votes) · LW · GW

We don't have a way to be sure our universe runs on casuality. It's just generalization from our experiences. The same could be true for Dumbledore and his universe.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T18:22:33.504Z · score: 8 (8 votes) · LW · GW

If regular courts had veritaserum, I imagine the first question they'd ask would be "What are the things you don't want to tell us?".

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T18:13:03.824Z · score: 0 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Arbitrage trick is overengineering. Just trade on forex and use time turner to go back and choose the deal.

With 40 000 galleons even going back a few minutes could suffice.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-03-28T18:08:11.095Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

I think there are some laws regarding using magic for gambling. Wizards can't be THAT stupid.

If not - get into leweraged currency trading, use time turner and don't worry about money anymore.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 · 2012-03-23T22:22:06.631Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

I assign 0.3 probability to my post from 23 March 2012 10:19:07PM.

0.2 to Harry going back in time and rescuing Hermione with time turner.

0.5 to Harry doing something nobody predicted yet :)

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 · 2012-03-23T22:19:07.745Z · score: 1 (3 votes) · LW · GW

I'd say Harry would trade with Lucius - Harry would testify under Veritaserum that Dumbledore confesed to Him, that he burned Narcissa. In exchange Lucius would let Hermione free.

Harry don't know if Dumbledore burned Narcissa, but probably can beat Veritaserum (according to Quirell), and with his evil side enabled he can risk trying it.

Similiar to "make Dumbledore turn himself in", but Dumbledore had chance to do that, and declined, and I don't know if Harry can blackmail Dumbledore serioulsy enough for this. But Harry don't need to blackmail Dumbledore.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 · 2012-03-23T21:52:50.919Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Harry promises Lucius to speak under Veritaserum, that Dumbledore confesed to Harry, that he burned Narcisa. Harry is occlumens or almost occlumens, so he can beat Veritaserum, but everybody don't know it.

Lucius Malfoy has his revenge, and his son, so he let Hermione free. Dumbledore loses, and maybe everything is lost, but Hermione is free. That's taboo tradeoff.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 · 2012-03-21T00:19:22.634Z · score: 9 (9 votes) · LW · GW

I doubt PR counted for much among deatheaters, so Dumbledore did not lose anything here, and for the rest of wizarding Brittain - they didn't have a choice other than Dumbledore, so they wouldn't believe deatheaters that DD could do sth like that. And later they would not change their opinions, but would forgot their motivation (because it was unplesant - fear of worse evil).

Very similiar thing happened in real life in WW2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre Nazi Germany announced in 1943 that they have found mass graves of tousands Polish prisoners of war all killed by shot in the back of head by soviets. USA and UK had treaty with Stalin, and Germany was more immadietly dangerous, and Stalin was instrumental, so nobody believed Germans, and after the war Poland was sold to USSR, and only in 1990 Katyn massacre was made public.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-17T00:06:34.433Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

"Harry had used up all six hours from his Time-Turner, and there were still no clues, and he had to go to sleep now if he wanted to be functional at Hermione's trial the next day."

I assumed this means Harry will be at trial. Probably as a witness?

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-16T22:24:13.278Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Stealth - not only he must transfer cloak to Hermione - he must also get Hermione out of court, and she must be in cloak at all times to prevent tracking magic, and Harry must have the cloak with himself, when Dumbledore will want to see it, when tracking magic will stop working (and there's spell that detects if cloak is nearby).

One way to do this - duplicate cloak using time turner for the moment Dumbledore will want to check it.

Scheme:

  • Harry takes cloak, mokesking pouch, and time turner with himself to the court

  • Harry waits for Hermione to disappear

  • Harry puts his mokeskin poach under the table or somewhere and not look at it

  • Hermione disappears

  • Dumbledore try to track Hermione and fails - so he checks if cloak is near - it is, so he asks Harry about it - Harry shows cloak to Dumbledore and it's empty

  • Harry goes back wearing cloak just before the moment Hemrione should disappear, takes the mokeskin poach that he left under the table, somehow makes everybody look elsewhere and put Hermione into his own mokeskin poach which he keeps under the duplicated cloak (may need to use potion or sth that will turn Hermione into animal or thing or sth that he can put into poach - like with Quirrell as a snake).

  • Harry in the past waits for Dumbledore to check the cloak that Harry in the present has with himself, waits for everybody to get out, and somehow passes the poach back to himself without looking at himself. Harry in the present puts poach into the cloak.

Possible failures - Dumbledore can keep the cloak, making it impossible to hide Hermione after the time turner is used up. I think Dumbledore won't do this - he didn't wanted to keep cloak to himself, he wants Harry to have cloak just in case, and even if he see throught this plot, he can let it slip, because he probably don't want Hermione to have wand snapped. But it's one failure mode.

Also Harry must be prepared to "prove" he didn't used up his TimeTurner, like he did after Azkaban Breaking.

I probbly missed something, and this won't work.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-16T06:25:33.027Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Did anybody bothered to check previous spells on Hermione, Snape, and Quirrell wands? EDIT: Ok, we''re told Quirrell cast tens of spells since 06:33, still - they should check just to be sure.

Now it seems Harry should just kidnapp Hermione and hide here somewhere(And give her cloak to hide her from tracking spels).

"Professor Quirrell had cast tracking Charms because he had learned of a person with a motive to harm Mr. Malfoy. Professor Quirrell had refused to identify this person." hmm, why hadn't they used veritaserum on Quirrell to ask him who had the motive? Seems like usefull thing to know after murder attempt..

Also - Quirrell said he found out about Draco at 06:33 - just half an hour too late to use Time Turner and check what happened or to stop Hermione in the first place. Funny coincidence.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-15T21:32:31.989Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Lucius knows that his enemies believe muggleborn can be powerful wizards, so he can say that flattery to look like his enemies.

For people that believe blood has nothing to do with magic - they won't state the obvious.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-15T18:58:29.952Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

But Harry later tested time loops, and system somehow told him to stop messing with time. EDIT: If the computer MoR runs on is really able to compute infinite loops in one sweep, then there's no reason not to allow Harry to compute his primes. Instead something scarry happened so Harry had to tell himself not to mess with time.

So maybe it is Turing computable after all, it just have watchdogs to stop loops after some iteration.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-15T18:37:01.294Z · score: 13 (13 votes) · LW · GW

Jumping in time just 6 hours back indicates to me that in the computer that is simulating MoR universe data is kept with 6-hours long cache.

As to Atlantis - they found a way to get out of the box - one level up, and they've left some cheat-codes for people that are still in this simulation. That also explains why some very important figures (like Dumbledore) think MoR runs on stories - somebody outside of simulation changes the simulation accordingnly. Maybe this simulation purpose is to make the best stories?

Also explains why prophecy works for more than 6 hours into the future - because simulation has some invariants, that make for best stories, and seers can well, "see" them, but only for very important events, and only guess ral meaning of these predictions. Hence mysterious prophecies.

What it doesn't explain - why cheat codes are in latinised English.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-14T21:51:21.565Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Complicated and risky plot (he teach well his future enemies). Sacking Dumbledore doesn't seem worthy such big risk. Quirrell now has the possibility to teach future wizards what he thinks will serve him, is impossible to fire, has influence on Harry, and Dumbledore doesn't seem to get much value out of being head of the Hogward.

I think Quirrell wants to unite wizards using some external enemy, and conquer the world/stop muggles from nuking themselves. Harry has great PR, so he'll be the fuhrer of united magical Brittain, and Quirrell will provide common enemy somehow to make it easier for Harry to rule.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-14T19:11:08.097Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

I've thought if you're not Harry Potter, and you have brain, then the only way to survive Avada Kedavra is not to be there?

And when Harry sneaked to Dumbledore last time he (D.) had not cast anything to check if it was Harry. Maybe he can do this quietly.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-14T17:52:26.342Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

If he is not constrained by ethics, he can also conveniently erase earlier memories of Hermione, if he suspects it would help to persuade her to do what he wants.

Effect - Dark!Hermione or at least different than she was before.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-14T17:41:10.985Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

You could't apparate to Hogward in cannon, if I recall correctly?

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-14T17:35:30.251Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

For it to be "fair" destruction of General Relativity you'll need the information to be destroyed, not container.

So everybody everywhere in the universe would need to forget it AND you need to destroy every physic book with it, and wikipedia, etc, etc.

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-14T17:25:38.979Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Testing which potion we got by such and such stirring pattern would be fun.

You give it to your hero and he is instantly dead. Or you give it to some criminal sentenced to death/Azkaban and he becomes unkillable for a month, or invisible to Dementors :)

Or you give it to rat and nothing happens - you try to kill the rat and he's killed - maybe that was potion that makes you invisible to dementors?

Comment by ajuc on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 · 2012-03-14T17:03:05.451Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

For Quirrell it would be "in character" to kill Dumbledore in such a way, that everybody would think it was natural death. Or at least assasinate him quietly without witnesses, without time for Dumbledore to react.

BTW - what stops Quirrell from polyjuicing as Harry, asking for private audience in Dumbledore apartment, doing quick surprise Avada Kedavra, and flying out of window? Or better yet - put Albus body to magical pouch, polyjuice as Dumbledore and run Hogward ever since. Dumbledore behaves quite strange, and rarely shows publicly, so it wouldn't be hard to do.

I can only think that Quirrell thinks everything is going according to plan, and no need to make the game more chaotic by killin Dumbledore now.

Comment by ajuc on The Hidden Complexity of Wishes · 2012-03-01T20:36:28.538Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

So if I specified to the Outcome Pump, that I want the outcome, where the person, that is future version of me (by DNA, and by physical continuity of the body), will write "ABRACADABRA, This outcome I good enough and I value it for $X" on the paper and put in on the outcome pump, and the $X is how much I value the outcome. And if this won't happen in one year, I don't want this outcome, either).

Are there any loopholes?

Comment by ajuc on The AI in a box boxes you · 2010-06-07T19:55:43.045Z · score: -2 (4 votes) · LW · GW

If I am simulated the decision I will take is determined by AI not by my - I have no free will - I feel, that I make decision, but it is in reality the AI simulated me for her purposes in such a way, that I decided so and so - I assign probability 0.9999999 to this, but nothing depends on my decision here, so I can as well "try to decide" not to to let the AI out.

If I am not simulated, I can safely not let the AI out - probability 0.000001, but positive outcome.