Comment by al_cellier2 on My Strange Beliefs · 2007-12-31T05:24:53.000Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Riddle me this, if a fellow at the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence had to estimate an over/under for the year of the Singularity, would the estimate be objective, biased upwards, or biased downwards. I suspect it would be biased downwards compared to a presumably objective over/under derived from a prediction market on the topic. We must overcome bias or we will spend too much energy trying to protect ourselves from the day of the Singularity. I'm much more likely to be hit by a car as a pedestrian than I am to be assaulted by a hybrid car / human 50 years from now.