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With my current research together with John Vervaeke and Johannes Jaeger, I'm continuing the work on the cognitive science of rationality under uncertainty, bringing together the axiomatic approach (on which Stanovich et al. build) and the ecological approach.
Here I talk about Rationality and Cognitive Science on the ClearerThinking Podcast. Here is a YouTube conversation between me and John, explaining our work and the "paradigm shift in rationality". Here is the preprint of the same argumentation as "Rationality and Relevance Realization". John also mentions our research multiple times on the Jim Rutt Show.
I've always admired your writings on the topic and you were one of the voices that led me to my current path, thank you so much, Luke.
correct FB-event link here: https://www.facebook.com/events/943882475656755
For the exact adress and the way to the room (with pictures) follow this link: http://web.student.tuwien.ac.at/~e0326238/rationality_meetup/directions.html
As always: For further information join or look into the Facebook group "Rationality Vienna" - here is also the FB-event: https://www.facebook.com/events/779237562115156/
Here is the link for the FB-event - for any further information:
https://www.facebook.com/events/1491377887814691
(Might be that you first need to become member or "Rationality Vienna" to see it)
Me - and many others from the meetup in Vienna - already signed up. This - probably - will be super awesome. Looking forward to it!
Review about the Rationality Meetup in Vienna on 27.09.2014
Superintelligence Summary by Marko Thiel
People who were there: Andreas, Matthias Brandner, Manuel K., Monika, Marko, Viliam Bur, Alex, Philip, Anna, Philipp, Tino/Sandy, Austin, Milica, Luka, Ivan, Axel, Lea, Lio, Andreas V., Manuel M. (20 people - awesome! And so many were new!)
Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom (presented by Marko Thiel)
First announcement: ethics will not be discussed and rather be ignored today, because otherwise he would never finish
Quote "Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control."
definition:
(I sadly didn't take notes here)
paths:
AI -> strong AI
whole brain emulation
biological cognition (improve humans, chemical substances/nootropics, embryo selection -> lots of generations in vitro)
interface with machine
networks and organizations
forms:
speed Superintellicence (like human but faster)
collective Superintelligence (together smarter)
quality Superintelligence (totally different to human)
intelligence explosion:
there will be a crossover after which the machine itself will go on improving the system
graph to show how similar an idiot and Einstein are compared to a mouse or Superintelligence
rate of intelligence change
AI takeover:
precritial
intelligence amplification
cover + preparation
overt implementation
-> arises the question of where the motivation to do so comes from!
the super intelligence will:
- the orthogonality thesis: any intelligence can build a pair with any motivation (Eliezer would probably call it "anti prediction)
Castes:
oracles
genies
sovereign
tool
predictability:
design
convergent instrumental goals (for example: self-preservation, goal-content integrity, cognitive enhancement, technology, resource acquisition -> infrastructure profusion)
other topics: failure modes, control problem, acquire values, choosing who to choose, do what I mean, the strategic picture
Comments I wrote down
by Andreas: "Does SI include self-awareness?" answer: "No"
by Ivan: Has someone tried to breed an human intelligent dog?
by Lio: Is it possible to have something that's good in all the things? -> Viliam: Yes, with a network structure
by Austin: Is there a difference between biological or programmed happiness? -> Manuel: the utility function of a thermostat is to be at 20 degrees, it doesn't WANT to be there
in the evening:
- We talked about daily things members of the group do which they consider rational/daily effective rituals/personal sleeping duration
for the next meetup:
We will vote on the date in the Facebook group
we will have three topics and the third one will be to collect personal goals we want to achieve with/in the group/ideas we have for the group
Am I not allowed to call it "prejudice" if it's like a Bayesian prior?
However, I filled in the application with the information about my personal location, so that he/they can see, that there is need for such events in Europe, too :) (maybe you should do that, too!)
Maybe he can give his plans for this event to some of us and we can organize our own event as a subunit.
Since I will not be able to attend "the rational ritual retreat" I will just post my thoughts on this topic here :) I already talked about this with some of the people from LessWrong Vienna, but I will write it down for the whole community, too:
What do you think about "rational alternatives" to important conventional events (but of course not exactly on the official dates - because people probably meet their families then) or creating "rational annual events"? I personally don't experience big meaning in official celebrations, but I actually enjoy celebrations, even more with smart people who in general share my interests :) Also all the official celebrations probably had an important purpose in the wheel of the year - for me they all lost their purpose over time (because not believing in it or not taking part in it) so at least the rational alternatives should deliver it.
Some vague ideas I had:
rational alternative to christmas: We could have a talk or invite someone to speak about effective altruism (I personally associate christmas with "giving") and then reflect about which projects we would love to support monetarily and collect money or something like that (maybe someone of you has better ideas?)
rational alternative to New Year's Eve/Day (doesn't have to be exactly on this day) : coming together, celebrating the old/new year with good food (maybe cooking together or something like that) or whatever you like - but instead of just mention some new year's resolutions making it a huge part of the evening/day -> exercises for reflection about the last year and wishes/plans for the next (+ use Alex Vermeer's guide), defining new goals, sharing background knowledge about goal setting and motivation, publicly announcing goals for social control/pressure (I would offer to have some talks about the topics)
rational alternative to the fasting period: I think fasting is not a stupid idea - there is also research that shows that reducing the daily intake correlates with a longer life in general (yeah, I know, correlation...) and I experienced that eating far less can really help to "free your mind". However: Also to just reflect about our diet, have some healthy cooking events together, trying soylent collectively or something like that would be an option. Or to do a lot of sport!
rational alternative to Easter: since it's officially about "Jesus who overcame death" we could make a event about longevity and immortality and share scientific research on the topics
summer/winter solstice: someone who is into this topics could teach the rest more about astronomy/astro physics
Of course I'm aware that there is no need to have any connection/correlation to official christian celebrations (and that some even might think it's contraindicated) - we can of course invent our own things independently (designed for a special purpose)
Skype conferences and private talks spreading the know-how in a pyramid scheme should be as effective as flying there - and it's a lot cheaper!
I would love to attend at "The Rational Ritual Retreat" but I expect it will not be near Austria or Bavaria :(
The general problem of fasting and extremely reduced intakes is that the metabolism slows down. Also you first lose a lot of muscles, then a bit of fat - when going on eating normal you burn less than before (because of less muscles) and therefore gain more fat. So for your body's composition I would say: Don't do it. (There is this great German book called "Die Physik des Abnehmens" = "the physics of weight loss" in which a physicist explains all this things very nicely)
However: I personally tried fasting for the mental effect, I was able to concentrate even better than normal, I liked the feeling of being "independent" from food and of being able to get through all of this things. (But I will not do it again because I try to get less body fat :) )
Review about the Rationality Meetup in Vienna on 23.08.2014
People who were there: Marko Thiel, Monika, Andreas, Matthias Brandner, Viliam Búr, Ivan, Manuel Moertelmaier, Pascal, Anna Leptikon, Marianna, Adelheid Gfrast, Jana and Austin Franzoni
We did the "open microphone" idea again and had our first meetup at Andreas' and Moni's place - thank you again for organizing it and all the food and drinks :)
Our (official) topics on Saturday were:
"money creation" by Andreas
"time" by Lea
"remembering and experiencing self" (Kahnemann) by Andreas
"money and happiness" by Matthias
We still have this open mic topics open:
absolute morality, antitheism, Esperanto, motivation hacker
We defined this topics for a full meetup in the future:
"Superintelligence" (Marko Thiel)
maybe Motivation Hacker? (Moni & me)
introduction and current research about happiness (me)
I collected this feedback ideas (from me and other people) during and after the meetup:
defining "homework" for the next meetup to have a better base for upcoming topics (like reading specific articles)
trying more settings in one meetup so it "feels like doing more" (for example going for a walk, changing sitting positions et cetera - we had the idea because of "remembering vs experiencing self")
before starting a specific discussion about a topic first thinking about which level of thinking is the best/most important one
after each topic or 30 "open mic" minutes -> thinking what this new information means for myself/how I can use it
Review about the Rationality Meetup in Vienna on 19.07.2014:
People who were there: Marko Thiel, Heinrich, Erik Unger, Monika, Andreas, Matthias Brandner, Peter Mühlbacher, Viliam Búr, Axel, Ivan , Manuel Moertelmaier, Anna Leptikon, Andreas Villarreal, Tom Madl, Marianna, Lio Kaufman
We tried the "open microphone" idea by Manuel the first time (which means: we collect topics people have to offer in the beginning, vote which ones we want to hear and every speaker gets 30 minutes - discussion included - for his topic) Donclusion: more information density and variety - so it's a great idea and we should do it more often, but there also is a need for meet ups with just one topic (it's more relaxed and some topics just can't be discussed and explained in 30 minutes)
Our (official) topics on Saturday were:
evolutionary economics by Lio
review of the London LW Meetup (I was there for a trip) + introduction for "Superintelligence" by me
the most rational search for a perfect (? ;) ) partner by me (here a summary: http://annaleptikon.com/what-is-the-most-rational-way-to-find-a-partner/)
why you should never feel guilt by Heinrich
We didn't have time (officially) for the topics: absolute morality, antitheism, debating, Esperanto and money creation (but I think it was discussed later anyways, some will follow the next meetups)