Comment by AriDao on How many people have died in China from Covid-19? · 2020-04-01T21:20:31.203Z · LW · GW

Given the current best mortality estimate 0,66% of Covid 19 (from Lancet) that number would presuppose that almost 70% out of Wuhan's 11 millions were infected. So what were they doing in Wuhan all those two months? Partying and letting die all they could?

Hence: either what we think we know about the virus so far is seriously flawed or the number is made up (probably by the Chinese social media and taken up by uncritical Western reporters that do not know simple math). The Chinese officials at Wuhan or Provinical level may have manipulated the data but at this point it does not seem to be done in any extra-ordinary way.

As for the real number of Covid-19 related deaths in Wuhan there are various indirect statistical methods that of course may indicate higher numbers than the official medical records. This is no different from Italy, Spain, France or Britain. (There is often no time to test all that die at home and not in the hospital; in France or Britain they openly acknowledge that).