Comment by Awaclus on "It's a 10% chance which I did 10 times, so it should be 100%" · 2024-11-21T03:58:47.790Z · LW · GW

It's worth noting the mathematically fairly simple and obvious but intuitively annoying fact that if you've tried the 10% chance 9 times with no success, you do not have a 63% chance of succeeding on your next attempt.