Comment by bdwolfhound on Bayesian Flame · 2009-08-09T14:57:32.608Z · LW · GW

I have a little difficulty with the notion that the probable outcome of a coin toss is the result of the toss, rather like the collapse of a quantum probability into reality when observed. Looking at the coin before the toss, surely three probabilities may be objectively observed - H, T or E, and the likelihood of the coin coming to rest on its edge dismissed.

Since the coin MUST then end up H or T ; the sum of both probabilities is 1, both outcomes are a priori equally likely and have the value1/2 before the toss. Whether one chooses to believe that the a priori probabilities have actual existence is a metaphysical issue.